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Fairleigh Dickinson vs Florida Atlantic Predictions, Odds & Lines for March Madness Round of 32

George Nassios

by George Nassios in College Basketball

Mar 18, 2023 · 2:10 PM PDT

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights guard Joe Munden Jr celebrating
Mar 17, 2023; Columbus, OH, USA; Fairleigh Dickinson Knights guard Joe Munden Jr. (1) celebrates defeating the Purdue Boilermakers at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
  • After shocking the basketball world, Fairleigh Dickinson battles Florida Atlantic on Sunday, March 19th in the second round
  • For just the second time since the NCAA field expanded to 64, a No. 16 seed, Fairleigh Dickinson, defeated a No. 1, Purdue
  • The Fairleigh Dickinson vs Florida Atlantic odds and picks can be seen below

Not only did the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (21-15, 15-19 ATS) become just the 2nd 16 seed ever to win a game in the round of 64, they also pulled off the biggest NCAA tournament upset point spread-wise in the process, defeating No. 1 seed Purdue as a 23.5-point underdog in the college basketball odds on Friday night.

A new test awaits in the East region’s second round when they take on the Florida Atlantic Owls on Sunday, March 19th, from Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:45 pm ET in a game that can be seen on truTV.

Fairleigh Dickinson vs Florida Atlantic Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +13.5 (-117) +522 O 149.5 (-117)
Florida Atlantic Owls -13.5 (-117) -1104 U 149.5 (-117)

Sportsbooks continue to show Fairleigh Dickinson little respect despite their stunning opening round victory. This time around, the Knights are 13.5-point underdogs against Florida Atlantic, a squad that squeaked out a 1-point win in their first-round contest against Memphis.

Paying out at +522 on the moneyline, Fairleigh Dickinson has an implied win probability of just 16.08% to advance to the Sweet 16. This after owning a probability of under 5% to win their opener against Purdue, in what turned out to be an absolute jaw-dropper.



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Fairleigh Dickinson Coming off Historic Upset

Perhaps Knights’ head coach, Tobin Anderson, was the only one that realistically thought his squad could beat Purdue in the 1st round. After winning their First Four game on Wednesday, the coach told his players “The more I watch Purdue, the more I think we can beat them. … Let’s go shock the world.”

His team went out and did just that, busting up the March Madness bracket for a ton of the betting public in the process. FDU was 25-1 to beat Purdue straight-up at some sportsbooks, owning longer odds to win that game than the Boilermakers did to win the entire tournament. Purdue was around 10-1 to win the whole thing.

Largest NCAA Tournament Upsets Since 1985

Year Won Lost Spread Next Game
2023 16 Fairleigh Dickinson 1 Purdue +23.5 vs Florida Atlantic
2012 15 Norfolk State 2 Missouri +21.5 Lost 84-50
2018 16 UMBC 1 Virginia 20.5 Lost 50-43
1993 15 Santa Clara 2 Arizona +20 Lost 68-57

The Knights only made the tournament because Northeast Conference champion Merrimack was ineligible while transitioning from Division II. They are just the 4th team ever to be a 20-point longshot in the NCAA tournament and come out with a win. Each team accomplishing that feat, subsequently lost their next game.

FAU on Eight-Game Winning Streak

After seeing Purdue get eliminated, Florida Atlantic went out and escaped a nail biter against Memphis, as Nick Boyd scored the game winning bucket with seconds left, sending his team to the 2nd round for the first time in school history.

A great opportunity to advance to the 2nd week of tournament play now presents itself for the Owls, although they should learn from Purdue’s lesson and not take FDU lightly. With the Boilermakers gone, Duke becomes the quadrant’s favorite in the Final Four odds, at +200.

Coming off a Conference USA tournament title, the Owls have a head full of confidence going into this encounter. They are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight and haven’t lost a game straight up in over a month.

Fairleigh Dickinson vs Florida Atlantic Prediction

Will there be anything left in the tank for Fairleigh Dickinson after taking out on of the top contenders in the odds to win March Madness? According to the betting line, the oddsmakers don’t think so as they’ve been pegged massive double digit underdogs once again.

FDU vs FAU Head-to-Head Stats

78.3 (38th) Points/Game 79.3 (26th)
65.7 (60th) Points Allowed/Game 76.0 (330th)
45.5 (120th) FG% 47.2 (41st)
34.3(182nd) 3PT% 37.8 (22nd)

Early public betting trends suggest the public is ready to ride with the dogs. At the time of writing this piece, 82% were taking the Knights to cover. Our predicted score formula suggests a 77-72 win for Florida Atlantic, a much smaller gap in competition than what the sportsbooks suggest.

The Knights have only lost by 14 or more points three times this season, with the last time occurring way back on December 13th, well over three months ago.

Usually, after a massive first round upset, a team like Fairleigh Dickinson folds in the 2nd round, already happy with what they accomplished. While we don’t think they’re going to the Sweet 16, our prediction is that they keep this game a lot closer in the college basketball odds than the Sportsbooks put forward, so take the points here.

Pick: Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +13.5 (-117)


March Madness second-round predictions:

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