College Football Picks Against the Spread for Conference Championships
- College Football Conference Championship weekend is here, with 11 games on tap
- Our college football picks against the spread include a play on UGA vs Alabama
- Read below for expert college football picks against the spread for Conference Championships
College Football Conference Championship Weekend is here, which means it’s the last chance to make against the spread picks for a full slate of games. We’ve identified three of our top college football picks against the spread for Friday, December 1st and Saturday December 2nd.
Among our college football picks against the spread is a play in the Georgia Bulldogs in their SEC Championship Game against the Alabama Crimson Tide. We’ve also made an ATS pick in the Oregon vs Washington Pac-12 Title game.
Let’s dive into our Week 14 college football picks against the spread for the conference championships.
Oregon vs Washington Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | -9.5 (-110) | -355 | Over 66 (-112) |
| Washington | +9.5 (-110) | +280 | Under 66 (-108) |
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All odds as of November 29th, 2023, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best College Football Betting Apps for ATS wagering.
Pick#1: Oregon -9.5 (vs Washington)
Kicking off our college football picks against the spread for conference championships is a play on one of the two games this Friday. Oregon will look to make a statement against Washington after losing to them by just three points during the regular season.
There’s no question which team has been the better club since that first meeting, with the Ducks winning all their remaining games in commanding fashion, while the Huskies narrowly avoided several upset losses. This line has been bet up to -9.5 after opening at -8.5.
Pursue excellence.
2023 Pac-12 Championship uniform combo. #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/V6cIybbaDe
— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) November 29, 2023
Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. are two contenders in the Heisman odds, but we feel this game will be won in the trenches. The Ducks are averaging nearly 190 rushing yards per game, while the Huskies are managing just 124 yards on the ground. UW’s loss of top RB Cam Davis has significantly impacted their run efficiency.
Bo Nix is on fire right now, and he’ll have time in the pocket to find his receivers with Washington only averaging 1.58 sacks per game. That starkly contrasts with the fierce Ducks pass rush, which is sacking the QB at a 2.67 per game clip.
A couple of turnovers could swing this game, and they’re unlikely to come from Oregon’s side. Nix has the highest completion percentage in the country at 78% and has thrown just two interceptions, while Penix Jr. is only completing 65% of his passes and averages almost one INT per game.
- Pick: Oregon -9.5 (-110)
Georgia vs Alabama Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | -5.5 (-108) | -218 | Over 54.5 (-112) |
| Alabama | +5.5 (-112) | +180 | Under 54.5 (-108) |
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Pick #2: Georgia (-5.5) vs Alabama
We’re shifting over to the SEC for our second play in our college football picks against the spread. We like locking in the Georgia Bulldogs at -5.5 while they remain favored by less than a touchdown. UGA has been the more complete team and holds key matchup edges.
Georgia’s defense is too dominant not to feel confident in shutting down an inconsistent Crimson Tide attack. The Bulldogs rank 1st in passing defense (176.5 ypg) and top-five in passing defense (17.8 ypg). UGA is allowing just 3.39 points per game in the first three quarters (which is when most starters are in).
🎬 𝐕𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 | Game Twelve#GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/mykMYYtWqY
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) November 28, 2023
Alabama QB Jalen Milroe has the ability to impact a game with his arm and legs, but Kirby Smart and Georgia will be prepared to effectively handle quarterback design runs based on prior experience and data.
We also don’t think Bama’s receivers will be able to create separation in man coverage with UGA ranking top-10 in defensive coverage against receivers (via PFF). Jermaine Burton is Alabama’s most explosive playmaker, and Smart is familiar with him as he transferred out of UGA to Tuscaloosa.
UGA could get Brock Bowers back for this game pending his latest injury update, but we feel the potential loss of Jase McClellan (foot) could be the most impactful. McClellan is the Tide’s leading back by a wide margin, and UGA hasn’t allowed more than 256 passing yards to any quarterback this season.
- Pick: Georgia -5.5 (-108)
Louisville vs Florida State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | +2.5 (+100) | +120 | Over 47.5 (-112) |
| Florida State | -2.5 (-120) | -142 | Under 47.5 (-108) |
Pick #3: Louisville (+3) vs Florida State
Concluding our college football conference championship picks against the spread is a play on the Lousiville Cardinals in their ACC Title game matchup with the Florida State Seminoles. We like the underdog value on Jeff Brohm’s club, especially if you can get the line at +3.
Florida State has the better record at 12-0, but there really isn’t much operating these two teams when you really break down the metrics. Of course, the big story is the season-ending injury to FSU QB Jordan Travis, which means backup Tate Rodemaker will be getting the start.
Tate Rodemaker and #FSU’s quarterbacks throwing early in practice. #Noles pic.twitter.com/SXCPAJOTv6
— Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG) November 28, 2023
Rodemaker is clearly a step down from the Heisman-level caliber of Travis, but we ultimately don’t think it will be QB play that costs the Smeinoles the ACC title. Louisville is the stronger team in both rushing offense and defense, and the Noles have struggled against good rushing teams like Boston College, Clemson and Miami.
Something else to consider when making your CFB ATS picks is that the Seminoles are averaging 6.58 penalties per game, which is 99th in the nation. With Louisville possessing the more experienced quarterback, plus a nice rushing edge, we like taking the points with the underdog in the ACC Championship.
- Pick: Louisville +3 (buy extra half point)
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
