Joe Burrow’s Heisman Odds Go From -800 to -1600 After Week 12; Any Value in a Longshot?
- Joe Burrow is now a heavy -1600 favorite to win the Heisman, on average
- Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields are the only players in striking distance
- Is there value in betting a longshot to win the trophy?
Joe Burrow is the runaway favorite in the 2019 Heisman Trophy race. The LSU QB saw his average Heisman Trophy odds go from -800 to -1600 after Week 12.
Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts went from +850 to +1000 despite leading an epic comeback at Baylor. Ohio State’s Justin Fields fell from +780 to +800 because thrashing Rutgers (56-21) doesn’t impress anyone.
Has Joe Burrow locked up the Heisman or is there value in betting on a longshot?
2019 Heisman Trophy Odds
| Player | Odds at Book 1 | Odds at Book 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow (QB, LSU) | -2000 | -1200 |
| Jalen Hurts (QB, Oklahoma) | +900 | +1100 |
| Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State) | +1000 | +600 |
Odds taken Nov. 18.
Burrow the Heavy Favorite
Joe Burrow turned in another Heisman-worthy performance against Ole Miss in Week 12. The LSU QB completed 32 of 42 passes for a career-high 489 yards and five touchdowns in a 58-37 victory.
Burrow’s chances of winning the Heisman are as strong as the latest odds indicate. He’s been excellent every week and has now thrown over 300 yards in four straight games. Considering Burrow only has to face Arkansas and Texas A&M before the SEC Title game, he pretty much locked up the trophy with impressive showings against ranked Texas, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama.
Burrow has been so consistent this season that the chances of him turning in a dud performance are very slim. If he does stumble in the final three regular-season games, is there value in betting on a longshot?
Jalen Hurts Leads Oklahoma To Comeback Win
Jalen Hurts is Burrow’s biggest competition for the Heisman trophy. Hurts’ Heisman odds went from +1000 to +900 at that particular sportsbook after he led Oklahoma to a big comeback win over Baylor.
Hurts finished 30-of-42 for 297 passing yards and four touchdowns as the Sooners rallied from a 25-point deficit to hand the Bears their first loss of the season. The dual-threat QB also ran for 114 yards and overcame three turnovers.
What might be most impressive about Hurts’ performance is he did it without top wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who was held out of the game as a “medical decision”.
Hurts has a better pass-efficiency rating than Burrow, but he has an upset loss on his resume and doesn’t have the signature wins that Burrow has. Considering Oklahoma only has to face TCU and Oklahoma State before a potential rematch with Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game, it’s unlikely Hurts impresses Heisman voters enough to steal the trophy away from Burrow.
Justin Fields Impresses Against Rutgers
Ohio State’s Justin Fields threw for a career-high 305 yards and matched a career-best with four touchdown passes in a 56-13 win over Rutgers on Saturday. Fields has put up impressive numbers this season, but he’s still a tier below Burrow. The LSU QB has an incredible 78.9 complete percentage and 38 TD passes, while Fields has a 69.1 completion percentage and 31 TD passes.
These two photos combine for 424 total yards and 6 TDs.@justnfields | @Jkdobbins22 pic.twitter.com/nq4nloCIiM
— Ohio State on BTN (@OhioStateOnBTN) November 16, 2019
Fields’ strong play has helped Ohio State to a perfect 10-0 record this season, but he hasn’t been the only big contributor for the Buckeyes. Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins has been one of the top-five rushers in the country, while DE Chase Young was leading the nation in sacks before his suspension.
Fields won’t win the Heisman because Dobbins and Young also have cases for the trophy. Burrow has had his own help, but no player listed in the latest Heisman odds has had the type of impact Burrow has had for the Tigers.
Tagovailoa Off the Board
Alabama starting QB Tua Tagovailoa is no longer listed in the Heisman odds after suffering a season-ending hip injury against Mississippi State on Saturday. The Crimson Tide QB underwent successful surgery on his dislocated right hip Monday.
Post surgery update on Tua Tagovailoa pic.twitter.com/m8EFUKxLID
— Cecil Hurt (@CecilHurt) November 18, 2019
Tagovailoa was a Heisman favorite all season, but injuries cost him the chance at the trophy. The 2018 runner-up had tightrope surgery on his ankle before the LSU game and is now out for the season following his recent hip injury and surgery.
The Tagovailoa injury likely played a minor role in Fields and Hurts seeing a slight increases to their Heisman odds, but Burrow has been too dominant for it to really mean anything.
Heisman Analysis After Week 12
It would take a historic collapse for Burrow to lose his massive lead in the 2019 Heisman Trophy race. The LSU QB has already played his biggest regular-season games and delivered excellent performances.
The best value with Burrow was before his games against Auburn and Alabama when he wasn’t even an odds-on favorite at all sportsbooks.
Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields have played important roles for their respective teams, but they haven’t had the type of impact Joe Burrow has had for LSU.
There isn’t value in betting on a longshot at this point of the season. Burrow is winning the trophy barring some unlikely disastrous finish to the season.
Pick: Joe Burrow (-1200)
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
