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Michigan vs Purdue Odds and Picks – Prediction for Big Ten Championship Game

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Football

Updated Nov 30, 2022 · 12:14 PM PST

Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy throws the ball
Nov 26, 2022; Columbus, OH, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws the ball against Ohio State Buckeyes in the second quarter of their game at Ohio Stadium. Osu22um Kwr 29
  • The #2 Michigan Wolverines are 16.5-point favorites over the Purdue Boilermakers in the Big Ten Championship game Saturday, December 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Michigan is 10-3 against the spread in the last 13 games against Purdue
  • The Wolverines are 14-0 SU in their last 14 Big Ten games

The Purdue Boilermakers (8-4, 5-7 ATS) have lost as many games in the past six weeks as the 24-2 Michigan Wolverines (12-0, 7-4-1 ATS) have lost over the last two years. Is it any wonder then that oddsmakers are all over the Wolverines as more than two-touchdown favorites in the 2022 Big Ten Championship Game?

Michigan is set as the 16.5-point favorite over Purdue. The #2 Wolverines have won nine of its last 11 games against the Boilermakers. The Maize and Blue are 10-3 against the spread in the last 13 meetings with Purdue.

The Wolverines whipped the Iowa Hawkeyes 42-3 as the 12-point chalk in last year’s Big Ten title game. Michigan has won a record 43 Big Ten football championships.

Purdue vs Michigan Odds

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Purdue Boilermakers +16.5 (-110) O51.5 (-110) +550
Michigan Wolverines -16.5 (-110) U 51.5 (-110) -800

Odds as of November 30 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook bonus code here.



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The kickoff for this game at Lucas Oil Stadium is set at 8:00 pm ET on Saturday, November 26. The weather forecast is calling for showers, 18 mph wind and a temperature of 54 degrees. Seeing as they’ll be playing inside a dome, the teams aren’t going to care about the elements. Broadcast of the game is being carried by the FOX Network.

Purdue vs Michigan Betting Trends

In the CFB public betting splits, Michigan is getting all the love. In spread wagering, 80% of handle and 76% of bets in public money are going with the Wolverines. The public is embracing Michigan even more fervently in the moneyline with 86% of handle and 88% of bets.

As far as the total, the public is going hard on the over. That’s garnering 93% of handle and 88% of bets. That’s even though the total has gone under in nine of Michigan’s last 13 games. However, the over has proven to be the winning play in six of Purdue’s last seven games against schools from the Big Ten East.

Michigan is the +280 second-betting choice in the national championship odds.

O’Connell’s Status Uncertain For Boilermakers

Purdue is preparing for this game while dealing with uncertainty regarding the status of starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell. He’s returned home to Illinois to be with family following the sudden death of his oldest brother Sean.

It’s not known when O’Connell will be returning to practice. Purdue coach Jeff Brohm is of the belief that the sixth-year starter will be playing in Saturday’s game.

Last week, shortly after learning of his brother’s death, O’Connell went 18-of-29 for 290 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-16 win over the Indiana Hoosiers that clinched the Big Ten West title for Purdue, 6-3 in Big Ten games.

Wolverines Dominating Both Sides Of Ball

Michigan is one of two schools in the nation ranked in the top 10 in both scoring offense (seventh, 39.8 points per game) and scoring defense (third, 12.7, points allowed per game). The Wolverines own an NCAA-leading 27.2-point differential. Wolverines QB JJ McCarthy is 11-0 as a starter. Michigan has never won 13 games in a season.

Going 9-0 in Big Ten play this season, Michigan’s 24 wins over the past two seasons are the most in a two-year span in school history. The Wolverines are 45-14 SU all-time against Purdue. Michigan is 31-5 SU when playing Purdue as a ranked team and 10-2 SU when facing the Boilermakers as a top-five school.

The Maize and Blue have won four straight from Purdue. Their last meeting in 2017 ended in a 28-10 Wolverines victory.

Purdue vs Michigan Prediction

Purdue is playing in the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time. The most recent Big Ten title for the Boilermakers came in 2000. QB Drew Brees led Purdue to a share of the title that season with Michigan and Northwestern. The Boilermakers haven’t been outright Big Ten champions since 1929.

Michigan is looking to win back-to-back Big Ten titles for the first time since 2003-04. The Wolverines are 5-4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. As a favorite between 10-16.5 points the Wolverines are 4-0 ATS the past two seasons.

Michigan went into the heart of the horseshoe last week and beat the stuffing out of Ohio State. No Big Ten school had done that in over seven years. Expecting that they won’t do something similar to the Boilermakers likely falls somewhere between optimistic and foolhardy.

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -16.5 (-110)


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