Opening 2023 Heisman Odds Favor Caleb Williams; Arch Manning Listed as Huge Longshot
- Caleb Williams is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in 2023
- Williams will be looking to become just the second player ever to win back-to-back Heisman Trophies
- Check out the complete Heisman Trophy odds below, plus analysis and predictions
USC’s Caleb Williams ran away with the 2022 Heisman Trophy as a sophomore. Now, just a month later, oddsmakers have pegged him as the favorite to repeat in 2023.
History is definitely not on his side however, as only one player has gone back-to-back in the 87 years the trophy has been awarded.
2023 Heisman Trophy Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Caleb Williams (USC) | +400 |
| Drake Maye (North Carolina) | +1000 |
| Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) | +1200 |
| Bo Nix (Oregon) | +1200 |
| Jordan Travis (Florida State) | +1200 |
| Quinn Ewers (Texas) | +1800 |
| Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) | +1800 |
| Drew Allar (Penn State) | +2000 |
| Jayden Daniels (LSU) | +2000 |
| Joe Milton (Tennessee) | +2000 |
| Brock Vandagriff (Georgia) | +2000 |
| Cade Klubnik (Clemson) | +2000 |
| J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) | +2500 |
| Kyle McCord (Ohio State) | +2500 |
| Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) | +3000 |
| Nick Singleton (Penn State) | +4000 |
| Ty Simpson (Alabama) | +4000 |
| Blake Corum (Michigan) | +4000 |
| Devin Brown (Ohio State) | +5000 |
| Jeff Sims (Nebraska) | +5000 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) | +5000 |
| Will Shipley (Clemson) | +6000 |
| Cameron Rising (Utah) | +6000 |
| Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss) | +6000 |
| Archie Manning (Texas) | +10000 |
*Odds as of January 9 at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to bet on Heisman Trophy Futures.
That of course would be Ohio State RB Archie Griffin, who accomplished the feat in the 1974 and 75 seasons. Griffin is also the only two-time winner of the Heisman Trophy, but there’s at least some reason to believe Williams can join him.
Williams opened with a +400 price tag in the Heisman Trophy odds, which is two and a half times shorter than his next closest competitor Drake Maye of UNC.
Williams Chasing History
The argument for Williams to repeat is pretty simple. For starters, he’ll be operating for the third straight season in a Lincoln Riley offense. Riley has produced three Heisman Trophy winning QB’s in the past six years.
None of his winners captured the award more than once, but he did produce back-to-back winners in 2017 and 2018 (Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray) as well as a runner-up in 2019 (Jalen Hurts).
Williams also plays the position most likely to win the award. Six of the past seven winners have been QB’s, as have 19 of the past 23 recipients.
With the first pick in the 2024 nfl draft _______ select Caleb Williams QB USC pic.twitter.com/i9NKUczSbW
— code toke (@ToKeNasty) January 2, 2023
The sophomore QB led the nation with 42 TD passes and chipped in 10 additional scores on the ground. He threw for 4,537 yards, the third most in college football, and finished with the fourth-best QBR (87.6). Williams led the Trojans’ offense to the third most points in the nation, averaging 41.4 points and 506.6 yards of offense per outing.
It stings that number one receiver Jordan Addison is leaving for the NFL Draft, but USC still has an excellent cast of playmakers. If Williams were to repeat, he’ll likely have to match or even exceed his 2022 totals. That seems like an incredibly difficult ask, despite who he’s working with, and one that is likely not properly priced at +400.
Tier Two Contenders
The next tier of Heisman Trophy contenders are also all quarterbacks. North Carolina’s Maye was on track to be a serious Heisman threat through 10 weeks, but stumbled down the stretch. Still, his season was good enough to earn ACC player of the year honors, as he threw for 4,321 yards and 38 TD as a red-shirt freshman.
Sam Howell, Maye’s predecessor, produced similar type numbers under Mack Brown’s tutelage, and Maye should definitely be in the mix as a sophomore. As will Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. The Indiana transfer led the nation in passing yards this season, while accounting for 35 total TD.
Before the Alamo Bowl, Michael Penix Jr. ranked:
✅1st in Pass Yards/G
🔥10th in Adj. YPA
✍️43rd in OnTarget%
👊6th in Points Earned/Play
✈️1st in Total EPAThe dude is fun to watch.
Data @football_sis pic.twitter.com/TOpceeEWwh
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) December 30, 2022
He led the Huskies to an impressive Bowl win over Texas, and if not for back-to-back one-score losses to UCLA and Arizona State earlier in the season, he would have been among the finalists this season.
Both Maye and Penix Jr. are stronger bets than Oregon’s Bo Nix, despite the season the ladder is coming off. Nix accounted for 44 total TD, and his dual threat ability is reason number one why his odds are so short. No one has ever questioned his athleticism, but this was the first season he showed any kind of consistency through the air.
Was it an aberration or is Nix poised to continue his strong play as a senior? That remains to be seen, but his price tag is simply too short given his shaky track record prior to 2022.
Best of the Rest
Which brings us to the longshots. One in particular stands out, in spite of the fact that he’s a receiver. That of course is Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. at 50-1, who was the country’s best wideout down the stretch.
Harrison torched #1 Georgia’s secondary for 106 yards and two scores in the Peach Bowl, and averaged 112 yards per game and over 16 yards per reception over the Buckeyes final five outings. He’ll getting top-three NFL Draft buzz from the beginning of training camp next season, and while QB’s have dominated the award over the past seven years, the lone exception was a wide receiver (DeVonta Smith, 2020).
Heisman Trophy Winners Last 12 years
| Player | Year |
|---|---|
| Caleb Williams (USC) | 2022 |
| Bryce Young (Alabama) | 2021 |
| DeVonta Smith (Alabama) | 2020 |
| Joe Burrow (LSU) | 2019 |
| Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) | 2018 |
| Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) | 2017 |
| Lamar Jackson (Louisville) | 2016 |
| Derrick Henry (Alabama) | 2015 |
| Marcus Mariota (Oregon) | 2014 |
| Jameis Winston (Florida State) | 2013 |
| Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M) | 2012 |
| Robert Griffith III (Baylor) | 2011 |
We’d be remiss if we didn’t touch on Texas’s Archie Manning, but don’t bother wasting money on him despite his favorable +10000 odds. No true freshman has ever won the Heisman Trophy, and he’s a longshot to earn significant playing time in his first season.
The Longhorns are set at the QB position for now with Quinn Ewers, who just happens to be a top-six Heisman Trophy contender.
Manning may own football’s most prestigious last name, and he may have been the country’s top recruit, but his time to compete for the nation’s most coveted award will have to wait.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
