NFL 2018 Defensive Player of the Year Odds After Week 12: Donald Still Favored

• Through 12 weeks of action, Aaron Donald is (still) the odds-on favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year
• Donald’s odds (-350) dropped slightly while the Rams were on bye; Khalil Mack’s odds (+450) remain unchanged
• Does Donald already have the award locked up? Or is there value somewhere else in the race

It seems like a lifetime ago that Aaron Donald and the LA Rams were battling over Donald’s worth.

Over the offseason and into training camp, the two sides were in a stand-off. It eventually ended with Donald becoming the highest-paid defensive player ever (briefly).

Regardless of whether he’s first or second, Donald is earning every penny of the new deal this season. He’s been the odds-on favorite for Defensive Player of the Year for weeks and rightfully so.

He’s also saved some of his best performances for prime time.

So…can Donald be caught?

2018 DPOY Odds

Aaron Donald performing at unheard of level among DTs

There is no comparable for what Aaron Donald is doing as a defensive tackle.

He leads the NFL with 14.5 sacks, which is three better than Danielle Hunter and JJ Watt. Mack has eight on the year.

For added perspective, Donald is the only DT with more than seven.

Donald is producing at an edge defender-like pace in other categories too. He’s forced three fumbles on the season, which is third-most. There are nine edge players ahead of him, and one middle linebacker.

AND he’s recovered two; the NFL leader has three recoveries.

A force to be reckoned with. @AaronDonald97's league-leading 14.5 sacks are the most by a defensive tackle since 2000. ? pic.twitter.com/j2bWxmCpgP

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 28, 2018

While measuring tackles against more athletic defenders is futile, Donald lines up well against his fellow DTs. Just three linemen have more combined tackles than Donald.

His 25 solo tackles is surpassed only by the Packers’ Kenny Clark.

Aaron Donald’s dominance translates to Next Gen stats

When documenting Donald’s dominance, ESPN did a pretty good job.

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Only two defensive players in NFL history have won MVP. @aarondonald99 might have a case to be the 3rd.

A post shared by NFL on ESPN (@espnnfl) on Nov 28, 2018 at 8:11am PST

Donald has been a generational talent at defensive tackle throughout his career. However, as Pro Football Focus points out, this may be his Mona Lisa.

And that’s AFTER he took home DPOY honors last year.

Donald has a ridiculous 12.0 pass rush percentage (PRP), which is matched only by Jerry Hughes. The closest defensive lineman settles at 8.9.

PFF has Donald 1st in hurries (49) total pressures (77). And that’s among everybody.

The only way to slow down Aaron Donald pic.twitter.com/Q0HMUYxZJb

— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) November 20, 2018

Donald’s run defense grade is third and his pass rush grade is fourth.

He’s just unstoppable.

Can anyone stop Aaron Donald from repeating as DPOY?

The two with the best chances are Khalil Mack (+450) and J.J. Watt (+550).

Mack’s chances were hurt when he battled an ankle injury in the middle of the season. Missing games against the Jets and Bills were key chances to bloat his numbers.

Watt meanwhile, has been picking up the pace. After two sack-less games to start the season, he has sacks in eight of nine games.

Watt’s season is impressive, especially considering the injuries he’s overcome. But he’ll need to keep the sacks up to push Donald.

While Donald’s dominance has become the norm for him, he’s reached a whole new level for a defensive tackle.

Barring injury, the DPOY award is Donald’s to lose.