2019 AFC Wild Card Props: Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
- AFC Wild Card Weekend kicks off with a division match-up: Texans vs Colts
- The teams split the two regular season games, each scoring 58 points
- See the best AFC Wild Card Props ahead of kickoff in Houston at 4:35 pm Saturday
Three of the four Wild Card games this weekend are regular season rematches.
But only one is a divisional game.
When the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans meet on Saturday, it’ll be the third time this season. The Texans won the first game 37-34 in overtime. The Colts stunned the Texans in Houston in Week 14.
As they get set for their third meeting, check out some of our favorite props.
Prop #1: Luck vs Watson (Passing Yards)
| Who will throw for more yards? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Andrew Luck throws for more yards than Deshaun Watson | -208 |
| Deshaun Watson throws for more yards than Andrew Luck | +135 |
*All odds taken Jan 3
In the QB matchup, Deshaun Watson may have his work cut out for him against Andrew Luck.
In the first game, Watson threw for his second-highest yardage on the season: 375 yards. Luck? He threw for a pedestrian 464 yards.
In Week 14, the Colts got the upper hand again, as Luck lapped Watson in yardage: 399 to 267.
For the season, Luck was sixth in yards per game at 287.1. Watson finished 19th at 260.3.
The #Colts allowed 18 sacks (fewest in NFL) & Andrew Luck completed 404 passes from INSIDE the pocket (2nd most) in 2018.
The #Texans allowed 62 sacks (most in NFL) & Deshaun Watson completed 52 passes from OUTSIDE the pocket (t-2nd most) in 2018.
Watson has a much tougher job pic.twitter.com/coiFbWYlbt
— Kevin Boilard (@KevinBoilard) January 3, 2019
In the past 11 weeks, Watson has gone over 300 yards just once. Luck has had four 300-yard games in that time, and three of at least 285.
https://twitter.com/MattHammondShow/status/1080653689549934593
TY Hilton’s ankle injury is a concern, and five Colts receivers are on the injury report this week. But it’s tough to see Watson topping Luck here.
The Pick: Lucks throws for MORE yards (-208) than Deshaun Watson
Prop #2: TY Hilton vs DeAndre Hopkins (Receiving Yards)
| Who will have more receiving yards? | Odds |
|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins has more receiving yards than TY Hilton | -164 |
| TY Hilton has more receiving yards than DeAndre Hopkins | +108 |
TY Hilton has been a monster against Houston this year.
Hilton racked up a team-high 115 yards on four catches in their first meeting. He then popped off for nine catches and 199 yards in the second, leading the Colts to victory.
115 catches. 0 drops.@DeAndreHopkins is unreal 😳 pic.twitter.com/OAvHSfb0pa
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 3, 2019
Hopkins had success in the first game (169 yards). He was held to just 36 yards in the second.
For his career, Hilton has dominated Houston. Over 14 games he’s averaged 103.2 yards with nine TDs.
Yes he’s battling an ankle injury that’s sapping some of his explosiveness, but Hilton thinks a Texans rematch is just what the doctor ordered.
The Colts defense has also improved over the season. After giving up over 250 passing yards in four games from Weeks 1 to 8, it’s happened just twice since.
T.Y. Hilton has played 108 games in his career.
3 of his CAREER BEST games have come AT Houston:
2014: 9 rec / 223 / 1 TD
2017: 5 rec / 175 / 2 TD (Brissett)
2018: 9 rec / 199 / 0 TD pic.twitter.com/z3e5Ylk6oI— Adam Lefkoe (@AdamLefkoe) January 3, 2019
Both will run wild on Saturday, but expect Hilton to outdo Hopkins once again.
The Pick: Hilton has MORE receiving yards than Hopkins (+108)
Prop #3: Marlon Mack Finds the End Zone
| Will Marlon Mack have a Rusing TD? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marlon Mack has 1+ Rushing TD | -125 |
| Marlon Mack has 2+ Rushing TD | +450 |
| Marlon Mack has 3+ Rushing TD | +1600 |
For a team that has struggled running the football the past few seasons, Marlon Mack has finally given the Colts a presence on the ground.
In two of the season’s final three weeks, Mack crossed the 100 yard threshold. He’s also scored a rushing touchdown in each of the last four weeks. That includes two against Dallas in Week 15.
The Texans haven’t given up a rushing touchdown since Week 15 against the Jets.
What if I told you #Colts RB Marlon Mack finished with more rushing touchdowns (nine versus six) than #Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott?
— Mark Lane (@therealmarklane) January 3, 2019
Mack missed the first game against Houston where the Colts abandoned the run (17 times including QB attempts). The second game? He carried it 14 times on his own.
While he struggled for yardage (33 yards) he did pick up a score.
Colts backfield per-game workloads since Marlon Mack returned from injury in Week 6
Mack: 16.8 rushes, 2.2 targets, 38.7 snaps
Nyheim Hines: 4.7 rushes, 4.2 targets, 25.1 snaps
Jordan Wilkins: 1.5 rushes, 0.6 targets, 17.4 snaps— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 1, 2019
With the Colts trying to pull off the upset, expect Mack to get some red zone looks on the ground. It may be the last thing the Texans are looking for.
The Pick: Marlon Mack rushes for AT LEAST 1 touchdown (-125)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
