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NFL Draft Odds – #1 Pick Odds Favor Cam Ward at -200

Chris Amberley

By Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Published:


Cam Ward gets ready to uncork a pass.
Dec 28, 2024; Orlando, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward (1) drops back to pass against the Iowa State Cyclones in the first quarter during the Pop Tarts bowl at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
  • Miami’s Cam Ward is a -200 favorite to be the first overall pick
  • Ward threw for 4,313 yards and 39 TD this past season, with four rushing scores
  • Keep reading for the NFL Draft Number 1 pick odds, plus analysis and picks

With the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff in the rearview mirror, it’s time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft. This year’s class isn’t as sexy as years past. Despite no one being too excited about the quarterback prospects, the two most likely names to go first overall both play that position.

NFL Draft Number 1 Pick Odds

Coach Odds
Cam Ward (Miami) -200
Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) +140
Travis Hunter (Colorado) +1400
Abdul Carter (Penn State) +2000
Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) +4000
Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona) +5000
Will Campbell (LSU) +5000
Mykel Williams (Georgia) +5000
Jalen Milroe (Alabama) +5000
Quinn Ewers (Texas) +5000
Kelvin Banks Jr. (Texas) +7500
James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee) +7500
Luther Burden III (Mizzou) +9000
Will Johnson (Michigan) +10000
Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) +10000

Miami’s Cam Ward is a -200 favorite to be the first overall selection in the NFL Draft odds. He’s followed by Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, who sports +140 odds. Sanders teammate Travis Hunter is third at +1400, while Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter rounds out the top-four. The Tennessee Titans hold the top selection, followed by the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants. 

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NFL Draft History: QB or Bust

Over the last 10 years, a quarterback has been the number one pick eight times. The lone exceptions were edge rushers Travon Walker in ’22 and Myles Garrett in ’17. You have to go all they way back to tackle Eric Fisher in 2013, to find a year where the number one selection wasn’t a quarterback or pass rusher.

Since 1997, a QB has been the top pick 20 times. The only other positions to earn that honor are offensive tackles and edge rushers, while no skill position player has been the first overall pick since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996.

Ward Is No Sure Bet

That should help us narrow down our best bets to be selected number one. We can forget about Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan, and focus on Ward, Sanders and Carter from the top-four.

Tennessee is desperate to move on from Will Levis and find their franchise quarterback. That takes Carter out of the equation, leaving only Ward and Sanders. Six weeks ago, Ward was +775 to go first, while Sanders was -117.

Ward has the potential to be a franchise guy, and is fresh off an impressive season. He threw for 4,313 yards and 39 TD at Miami, rushing for another four scores. Ward’s Hurricanes led the FBS in scoring and total offense, and he completed 29 passes of 20-plus air yards which ranked seventh nationally.

Rumour is the Titans are split on Ward and Sanders, and there’s one glaring reason why they should pass on the former.

Ward’s closest NFL comps are Bo Nix, Zach Wilson and Sam Howell. Nix looks like a hit after a fine rookie season, but those other names have to give teams pause.

The worry is Ward’s bad tendencies will be amplified in the pros, just like Wilson’s. He relies too heavily on his arm talent, regularly throwing off his back foot. Ball security is a concern after fumbling eight times in 2024, as is pocket awareness.

Finally, his coverage reading skills leave a lot to be desired. He struggles against disguised looks, which is what NFL defenses thrive on.

Sanders Should Be Favored

Which brings us to Sanders. He’s earned an endorsement from Draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. as the top QB in the Draft, and will bring a whole different level of excitement than Ward.

Tennessee is a small market team that is desperate to be relevant. Sanders will put them in the A block of every talking heads sports show, and will make the Titans must see TV.

On the field, he’s actually a safer prospect with similar upside. His footwork and accuracy are more polished than Ward’s, and he’s a better thrower on the move.

He’s also tough as nails. Sanders absorbed 99 sacks over the past two seasons, but that didn’t stop him from hanging in the pocket to make tough throws. He completed 74% of his passes this season, for 4,134 yards and 37 TD.

Sanders is not a huge rushing threat, but he’s not afraid to take off either. He scored four times on the ground, and possess enough juice to extend plays.

What separates him the most form Ward is his processing ability. He’s excellent at diagnosing coverages and making pre-snap adjustments.

Both he and Ward will likely be Day 1 starters next season, but if we’re looking for a best bet to go first overall, give me Sanders. He’s got more favorable odds, and his accuracy and processing ability make him a more attractive option.

Chris Amberley
Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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