Aaron Donald has the Same NFL MVP Odds as Philip Rivers
- Entering the stretch run of the NFL season, Aaron Donald has likely locked up DPOY
- Donald’s dominance is carrying over into the MVP conversation, too
- The DT now has the same odds to win the award as Philip Rivers, who is enjoying as career season as well
Aaron Donald’s season has been so good, it’s almost become boring.
Entering Week 13, the Rams’ defensive tackle had done it all for his team and the stats showed it. Then he went and added another six tackles, two sacks, and a forced fumble against the Lions.
Meanwhile, Philip Rivers has quietly been keeping the Chargers in contention for the AFC West. Which is something no one was expecting after the Chiefs’ first eight games.
With Donald staring a second-straight DPOY in the face, his name is also shooting up the NFL MVP odds board. He’s risen so high after Week 13 that he sees equal average odds to one of the league’s best quarterbacks, Philip Rivers.
The two possess average odds of +2600, but have a look at how two of our online sports betting sites see the two.
2018 NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Odds at Sportsbook 1 | Odds at Sportsbook 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | -200 | -200 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 140 | +145 |
| Todd Gurley | 2000 | +2000 |
| Aaron Donald | 2800 | +2500 |
| Phillip Rivers | 4000 | +2000 |
As you can see, quite the difference between sportsbooks in terms of which of these two is more valuable.
Right now, Donald is second in the odds among non-QBs. In terms of average odds, Donald (+2600) is just behind teammate Todd Gurley (+2400).
It’s pretty lofty territory for a guy that chases the NFL’s premier position rather than plays it. Other than Gurley, Donald trails two quarterbacks in the odds: Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes.
Aaron Donald is the NFL MVP in @Foxworth24's book. pic.twitter.com/gRwhppvl8r
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) December 5, 2018
To prove just how impressive it is that Donald is in the conversation this late, no one has tracked any other non-QB/RB/WR’s odds since October 24th. Donald is forcing Vegas’ hand.
And while he doesn’t have many advantages over the rest of the pack, Donald does have one. The position he plays is far less scrutinized.
Glad we named Drew Brees MVP before his 122-yard game
— TOM MARTIN (@LetItFlyTom) November 30, 2018
Can Aaron Donald beat out big name QBs?
QBs are gauged week-to-week and month-to-month, and they have more they’re judged on.
After back-to-back weeks with interceptions and a stunning loss to the Cowboys, Brees’ average odds went from -470 to -180.
Mahomes began November as the favorite (-150), but odds-makers couldn’t overlook his downer against the Cardinals and turnover-fest against the Rams.
Aaron Donald. My God He should get MVP votes
— Booger (@ESPNBooger) December 2, 2018
But those two are still at the top of the list. And that’s because only four non-QBs have been named MVP since 2000.
Aaron Donald Chasing Single-Season Sack Record
| Season | Player | Team | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Michael Strahan | NYG | 22.5 |
| 2011 | Jared Allen | MIN | 22.0 |
| 1984 | Mark Gastineau | NYG | 22.0 |
| 2014 | Justin Houston | KC | 22.0 |
| 2018* | Aaron Donald | LAR | 16.5 |
*Indicates current season
Will he break Michael Strahan’s sack record? Likely not. But with three weeks to go, Donald (16.5) is just 3.5 sacks away from becoming the 12th player ever with 20 in a season.
Here's the thing about Aaron Donald/MVP: So many of his sacks/big plays/forced turnovers came when the #Rams deperately needed a play to be made.
— Vincent Bonsignore (@VinnyBonsignore) December 2, 2018
That, combined with a dominant team around him, should be good enough to keep him in the MVP conversation.
It wasn’t for Michael Strahan. He didn’t get an MVP vote playing on a 7-9 Giants team in 2001. Jared Allen didn’t get any love in 2011, but JJ Watt got 13 votes in 2014.
At the time, it was something of a landmark.
J.J. Watt got 13 MVP votes. First time this century a defensive player got more than three MVP votes.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) February 1, 2015
Will Aaron Donald do the impossible?
The last non-quarterback to win the award? Adrian Peterson in 2012. The last defensive player? Lawrence Taylor in 1986.
In my 14 years covering the NFL, Darrelle Revis was the defensive player who I believe played his position at the highest level. Aaron Donald is getting into that neighborhood. But I think it's really hard not have a QB as league MVP.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) December 4, 2018
Donald would be a great story, but unless the guys ahead of him fall off, he’s a long shot at best.
What about Philip Rivers?
Rivers is an interesting name to keep an eye in the race, but there may only be one thing he can do to win the award: knock off the Kansas City Chiefs.
#Chargers coach Anthony Lynn on @gmfb: “I dont know that you can talk about Philip Rivers without talking about him being the MVP.” The best season of his lengthy career…
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 6, 2018
Rivers trails either Mahomes, Brees, or both in most major passing categories.
But, if the Chargers knock off the Chiefs in Arrowhead in Week 15, get a little help, and force the Chiefs to play on Wild Card weekend, it could flip the voting entirely.
Until then, however, it’s a pipe dream.
And the MVP is still Drew Brees’ to lose.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
