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Josh Allen Still Leads NFL MVP Odds After Dismantling Jets; Stafford, Prescott Gain Ground

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Nov 15, 2021 · 6:36 AM PST

Dak Prescott celebrates, QB Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) reacts after a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in an NFL football game in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, Nov, 14, 2021. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)
  • MVP favorite Josh Allen threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins
  • Dak Prescott threw two TDs and ran for another; Tom Brady and the Buccaneers struggled
  • See the updated NFL MVP Odds for Week 10

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady blew a great opportunity on Sunday.

Taking on the Washington Football Team and coming off of a bye, the Buccaneers could put a little extra space between themselves and the Saints in the NFC South. What’s more, Brady could’ve closed on Josh Allen in the 2021 NFL MVP odds.

It wasn’t to be, as Washington frustrated a banged-up Bucs offense all afternoon, dropping them to 6-3. Brady had one of his least effective outings of the season, and Allen had one of his best. And the updated NFL MVP odds reflect that.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Josh Allen, BUF +200
Tom Brady, TB +300
Matthew Stafford, LAR +600
Dak Prescott, DAL +800
Aaron Rodgers, GB +1000
Lamar Jackson, BAL +1200
Kyler Murray, ARZ +1600
Justin Herbert, LAC +2000
Patrick Mahomes, KC +2000
Ryan Tannehill, TEN +3000
Joe Burrow, CIN +5000
Jonathan Taylor, IND +10000
Derek Carr, LVR +10000
Cooper Kupp, LAR +10000

Odds as of November 15th from FanDuel

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This marks the fourth-straight week that Josh Allen has sat alone atop the NFL MVP odds. After struggling in a big way against the Jacksonville Jaguars, both Allen and the Bills made a statement in Week 10.

As for the rest of the board, Brady’s struggles stand out the most. Kyler Murray’s injury has severely handcuffed his odds, and Dak Prescott had a nice rebound.

Allen Keeps Brady at Bay

For the past few weeks, Tom Brady has been a trendy pick for the MVP award.

He’s got the numbers and the pedigree. And while Allen had a couple of poor showings mixed into his season, Brady’s floor was less volatile. But a winnable game against WFT turned into a stunning loss.

Week 10 Comparison: Josh Allen vs Tom Brady

Josh Allen
VS
Tom Brady
21/28 Comp/Att 23/34
366 Yards 220
13.1 Yards per Attempt 6.5
2 Touchdowns 2
1 Interceptions 2
125.6 Rating 80.5

Brady started off on the wrong foot, tossing both of his picks on his first six attempts. While he was able get his team within a score, his defense couldn’t get off the field, costing him a shot at a comeback.

The 220 passing yards are Brady’s second fewest of the season, but at least when he threw for 211 against the Bears he mixed in four TDs.

Allen’s yardage was a season-high, and the third time he’s crossed the 350 yard mark. It was also the eighth time he’s thrown multiple TD passes in a game in 2021.

Dak Dazzles While Others Struggle

It wasn’t a banner few weeks for Dak Prescott coming out of the Cowboys’ bye week.

First, a calf injury that he had been battling forced him to miss Sunday Night Football against the Vikings. Then he returned to the lineup only to scuffle at home against the Broncos.

So what did he do? Rebound in a big way against the Falcons.

Notable Performances Week 10

Team Comp/Att Yards TD INT Rushing Yards Rushing TD Rating
Dak Prescott 24/31 296 2 0 5 1 127.9
Patrick Mahomes 35/50 406 5 0 0 0 127.6
Aaron Rodgers 23/37 292 0 1 8 0 75.8
Justin Herbert 20/34 195 1 1 22 0 72.5
Lamar Jackson 26/43 238 1 1 39 0 73.6

There were a lot of low numbers across the board in Week 10. It started with Thursday night where Lamar Jackson was continuously frustrated by a feisty Dolphins defense. Justin Herbert had flashes of brilliance against the Vikings, but ultimately couldn’t get the job done.

After spending 10 days in Covid protocol, Aaron Rodgers scored a win, but that cloud of controversy may hang over him all season.

The two who benefitted the most on Sunday were Prescott and Mahomes. Mahomes had seen his odds steadily decline as his struggles ran parallel to the Chiefs’. But a five touchdown performance in a primetime game can fix a lot.

Stafford Lurks in NFL MVP Odds

In Matthew Stafford’s case, a lot hinges on what he does Monday night. If it’s ugly, like his loss against the Titans, he’ll slide down the board. But if he pieces together a 300-yard, two touchdown night? He’ll give bettors a lot to think about. Especially with a bye week to get Odell Beckham Jr fully integrated into the offense.

Brady’s missed opportunity against Washington hurts, because after the Giants in Week 11, the Colts, Bills and Saints are on tap. Mix in divisional games against the Falcons and Panthers and it won’t be smooth sailing for TB.

Buffalo has a tough stretch run as well, with some upcoming defenses that could slow their offense down.

Prescott, like Stafford, has every opportunity to move up the board. He doesn’t necessarily have to win his Week 11 meeting with the Chiefs, he just has to post a big number. After that it’s a schedule that’s challenging, with some soft spots too.

With eight weeks to go, Stafford and Prescott are the names to watch.

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