Allen Still NFL MVP Favorite Despite Loss to Jaguars; Brady Stays Strong on Bye
- NFL MVP odds favorite Josh Allen struggled against the Jaguars as the Bills fell to 5-3
- Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers were both inactive; Tom Brady was on bye
- See the updated 2021 NFL MVP odds
Sunday was a day Josh Allen would like to forget.
The Bills’ QB threw two interceptions and fumbled once. Buffalo’s offense failed to scored a touchdown despite Allen throwing it 47 times and picking up 50 yards on the ground, as they lost to the Jaguars.
While it wasn’t an MVP-level performance, Allen lucked out in a big way. Whether it was the Covid controversy, an injury or a well-timed bye week, most of his contemporaries were down on Sunday. So Allen stays atop the NFL MVP odds.
2021 NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen, BUF | +250 |
| Tom Brady, TB | +400 |
| Kyler Murray, ARZ | +700 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | +700 |
| Dak Prescott, DAL | +1000 |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB | +1000 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | +1200 |
| Lamar Jackson, BAL | +1200 |
| Ryan Tannehill, TEN | +4000 |
| Derek Carr, LVR | +5000 |
| Joe Burrow, CIN | +5000 |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | +8000 |
| Teddy Bridgewater, DEN | +10000 |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | +10000 |
Odds as of November 8th from FanDuel
Allen is simply the most recent name to take control of the 2021 NFL MVP odds. Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford have all been at the top of the board or close to it.
The Bills’ QB had been a popular preseason pick and, despite some iffy results, had been generating some early season momentum. Then a surge the last three weeks saw Allen take the outright lead at +200. He was able to survive a down Week 9, but another poor performance will undoubtedly hurt his chances.
Josh Allen Falls Flat vs Jaguars
Allen had thrown multiple touchdowns in six-straight weeks entering Week 9. Despite logging just 249 yards and two TDs against the Dolphins in Week 8, it capped his most dominant three-game stretch of the season. From Weeks 5-8, Allen threw for 917 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception.
He had a rating of 112.1.
Josh Allen: Three Week Averages vs Week 9
| 68.7% | Completion Percentage | 65.9% |
| 305.7 | Yards | 264 |
| 7.97 | Yards per Attempt | 5.61 |
| 2.7 | Touchdowns | 0 |
| 0.3 | Interceptions | 2 |
| 112.1 | Rating | 62.7 |
This was the first time in 2021 that Allen recorded multiple turnovers in a game. It also snapped a 15-straight game run of games where Allen had thrown at least one touchdown pass.
The Wyoming product has survived dips like this before. Despite a 35-0 score, Allen’s final stat line in Week 2 against Miami (179 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) wasn’t overly impressive, but his NFL MVP odds didn’t take a hit.
Josh Allen has intercepted, sacked and recovered a fumble from Josh Allen today.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 7, 2021
Allen has a visit to New York against the Jets on tap before he sees the Colts, Saints, Patriots and Buccaneers. If his MVP candidacy is for real, we’ll know by Week 14.
Stafford Misses Chance to Wow vs Titans
With an opportunity to really make some headway in the NFL MVP odds, Matthew Stafford took to the field Sunday night against the Titans.
He promptly delivered a dud in the first half.
After his first drive stalled out and the second resulted in a field goal, Stafford took over deep in his own territory. Inches away from taking a safety, Stafford elected to get rid of the ball, resulting in what can only be called a Carson Wentz-esque interception.
Matthew Stafford tonight: pic.twitter.com/yn23F1HCDE
— Schlasser (@UrinatingTree) November 8, 2021
He then followed that up with a pick six.
Stafford was able to cobble together a 294-yard, one touchdown effort to close out the night, but he never looked as good as the numbers indicate. The primetime showing ultimately hurt his MVP case.
Brady’s NFL MVP Odds Thrive on Bye; Rodgers and Murray Sit
After a ‘down’ week failed to really impact him in the 2021 NFL MVP Odds, Tom Brady actually benefitted from sitting.
The same can’t be said for Kyler Murray, who watched the Cards win without him, or Aaron Rodgers. While the Packers’ loss helps his cause, the drama surrounding his vaccination status could easily mar an otherwise dominant campaign. It will be interesting to see how the narrative and perception develop with this situation spending another week under the microscope.
A week lost to injury and a tepid showing against the Broncos hasn’t helped Dak Prescott’s situation either. Despite a wealth of opportunities against a leaky division, he needs to get back on track.
The moment @AaronRodgers12 lost Terry Bradshaw. “You lied to everyone.” pic.twitter.com/sJVxxTtQrU
— Keith Olbermann (@KeithOlbermann) November 7, 2021
If you’re looking for a long shot this late in the season, consider Ryan Tannehill. While he didn’t wow anyone Sunday night and turnovers have been an issue, if he can earn top spot in the AFC without Derrick Henry, he’s going to shoot up the board.
Despite that, Brady is the best positioned out of anyone to keep firing from Week 10 onward. The Washington Football Team hasn’t been nearly as dominant defensively as people expected, and then Tampa has the Giants, Colts and Falcons.
TB12 is just staring at opportunity after opportunity to pad the stats.
The Pick: Tom Brady (+400)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
