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Allen Still NFL MVP Favorite Despite Loss to Jaguars; Brady Stays Strong on Bye

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Nov 8, 2021 · 6:29 AM PST

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, sacked
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) gets up after he is tackled by the Jacksonville Jaguars defense during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 7, 2021, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)
  • NFL MVP odds favorite Josh Allen struggled against the Jaguars as the Bills fell to 5-3
  • Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers were both inactive; Tom Brady was on bye
  • See the updated 2021 NFL MVP odds

Sunday was a day Josh Allen would like to forget.

The Bills’ QB threw two interceptions and fumbled once. Buffalo’s offense failed to scored a touchdown despite Allen throwing it 47 times and picking up 50 yards on the ground, as they lost to the Jaguars.

While it wasn’t an MVP-level performance, Allen lucked out in a big way. Whether it was the Covid controversy, an injury or a well-timed bye week, most of his contemporaries were down on Sunday. So Allen stays atop the NFL MVP odds.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Josh Allen, BUF +250
Tom Brady, TB +400
Kyler Murray, ARZ +700
Matthew Stafford, LAR +700
Dak Prescott, DAL +1000
Aaron Rodgers, GB +1000
Justin Herbert, LAC +1200
Lamar Jackson, BAL +1200
Ryan Tannehill, TEN +4000
Derek Carr, LVR +5000
Joe Burrow, CIN +5000
Patrick Mahomes, KC +8000
Teddy Bridgewater, DEN +10000
Cooper Kupp, LAR +10000

Odds as of November 8th from FanDuel

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Allen is simply the most recent name to take control of the 2021 NFL MVP odds. Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford have all been at the top of the board or close to it.

The Bills’ QB had been a popular preseason pick and, despite some iffy results, had been generating some early season momentum. Then a surge the last three weeks saw Allen take the outright lead at +200. He was able to survive a down Week 9, but another poor performance will undoubtedly hurt his chances.

Josh Allen Falls Flat vs Jaguars

Allen had thrown multiple touchdowns in six-straight weeks entering Week 9. Despite logging just 249 yards and two TDs against the Dolphins in Week 8, it capped his most dominant three-game stretch of the season. From Weeks 5-8, Allen threw for 917 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception.

He had a rating of 112.1.

Josh Allen: Three Week Averages vs Week 9

Weeks 5-8
Week 9
68.7% Completion Percentage 65.9%
305.7 Yards 264
7.97 Yards per Attempt 5.61
2.7 Touchdowns 0
0.3 Interceptions 2
112.1 Rating 62.7

This was the first time in 2021 that Allen recorded multiple turnovers in a game. It also snapped a 15-straight game run of games where Allen had thrown at least one touchdown pass.

The Wyoming product has survived dips like this before. Despite a 35-0 score, Allen’s final stat line in Week 2 against Miami (179 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) wasn’t overly impressive, but his NFL MVP odds didn’t take a hit.

Allen has a visit to New York against the Jets on tap before he sees the Colts, Saints, Patriots and Buccaneers. If his MVP candidacy is for real, we’ll know by Week 14.

Stafford Misses Chance to Wow vs Titans

With an opportunity to really make some headway in the NFL MVP odds, Matthew Stafford took to the field Sunday night against the Titans.

He promptly delivered a dud in the first half.

After his first drive stalled out and the second resulted in a field goal, Stafford took over deep in his own territory. Inches away from taking a safety, Stafford elected to get rid of the ball, resulting in what can only be called a Carson Wentz-esque interception.

He then followed that up with a pick six.

Stafford was able to cobble together a 294-yard, one touchdown effort to close out the night, but he never looked as good as the numbers indicate. The primetime showing ultimately hurt his MVP case.

Brady’s NFL MVP Odds Thrive on Bye; Rodgers and Murray Sit

After a ‘down’ week failed to really impact him in the 2021 NFL MVP Odds, Tom Brady actually benefitted from sitting.

The same can’t be said for Kyler Murray, who watched the Cards win without him, or Aaron Rodgers. While the Packers’ loss helps his cause, the drama surrounding his vaccination status could easily mar an otherwise dominant campaign. It will be interesting to see how the narrative and perception develop with this situation spending another week under the microscope.

A week lost to injury and a tepid showing against the Broncos hasn’t helped Dak Prescott’s situation either. Despite a wealth of opportunities against a leaky division, he needs to get back on track.

If you’re looking for a long shot this late in the season, consider Ryan Tannehill. While he didn’t wow anyone Sunday night and turnovers have been an issue, if he can earn top spot in the AFC without Derrick Henry, he’s going to shoot up the board.

Despite that, Brady is the best positioned out of anyone to keep firing from Week 10 onward. The Washington Football Team hasn’t been nearly as dominant defensively as people expected, and then Tampa has the Giants, Colts and Falcons.

TB12 is just staring at opportunity after opportunity to pad the stats.

The Pick: Tom Brady (+400)

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