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Baker Mayfield’s NFL MVP Odds Plummet After Week 1; Browns QB No Longer Among Top 4 Contenders

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 12:07 PM PDT

Baker Mayfield
After a dismal Week 1 loss to the Titans, Baker Mayfield's MVP odds dropped substantially. Photo from @BrownsAccess (Twitter).
  • Mayfield-led Browns crushed in home opener against Titans
  • QBs MVP odds take a dive after much preseason hype
  • Is now the right time to be targeting Mayfield?

It didn’t take long to rain on the Cleveland Browns’ party.

As the personal victim of an early survivor pool death, I, like many other football fans, was buying what the Cleveland Browns were selling.

And then Week 1 happened.

The fallout from a 43-13 drubbing at the hands of the Tennessee Titans had a ripple effect in the betting waters, particularly the once lofty perch quarterback Baker Mayfield sat at for the NFL MVP odds. Three interceptions in the fourth quarter can really knock you down a notch.

NFL MVP Odds

Player Team Odds
Patrick Mahomes KC +400
Carson Wentz PHI +900
Tom Brady NE +900
Aaron Rodgers GB +1100
Drew Brees NO +1100
Deshaun Watson HOU +1600
Lamar Jackson BAL +1800
Russell Wilson SEA +2200
Philip Rivers LAC +2500
Baker Mayfield CLE +2500

Odds taken 11/09/19. 

Mayfield’s average MVP odds were +1100 entering the week, fourth-best in the NFL. He’s faded behind a glut of pivots in the +2000 range, and now is just barely visible in the top 10 at +2500.

Is there an opportunity lurking for a sharp bettor, or should you be moving on from the shores of Lake Erie to greener pastures?

Why You Should be Wagering on Mayfield

This is the ultimate pump-your-brakes defense. It’s one game, people. Mayfield’s line isn’t anything to write home about: 25-for-38 (65.8%) for 285 yards, one TD and 3 interceptions , but this was a close game for nearly 45 minutes.

After the Browns’ offense struggled to put anything together against an underrated Titans defense, Mayfield injected life back into the stadium with a TD drive that had all the trademarks of a franchise pivot. He bought time in the pocket to find Jarvis Landry on third down to keep the drive going, then dropped a dime to Landry to get into the red zone. Just a few plays later, he found David Njoku for the major to make it a two-point game.

But the air was let out of the sails on the next drive, when the Titans ran the absolute perfect screen pass, to expand a lead they would never be in danger of losing again. From there, Mayfield and the offense started pressing and making mistakes that inflated the score.

What sets Mayfield apart from other people in his position, however, is his unwavering confidence. Watch this and tell me you don’t think he’s going to get it done in Week 2 and beyond.

YouTube video

This was also the first sustained action Mayfield has had to work with Odell Beckham Jr – who had seven catches for 70 yards in his debut – and a new (and less impressive) offensive line. Their lack of cohesion up front definitely disrupted Mayfield’s rhythm, as he was sacked five times and looked uncomfortable in the pocket.

We’ll see how much of a problem it is in what is already a crucial Week 2 game on Monday night against the Jets.

What’s the Best Bet to Make?

There were a bevy of excellent MVP options floating in that +2000 range to start the season, and jumping on Mayfield now might be the longest odds he’ll have all season. There’s good value in that wager, but maybe the football gods are telling us there is something to franchises building a winning culture before winning big, and this is a growing pains kind of season for Cleveland.

If you are off the bandwagon, there are three other pivots who looked dynamite in Week 1 and you should be targeting. Deshaun Watson (+1600) did everything but drive the team bus in New Orleans, and he did it while playing on a wonky back. Carson Wentz (+900) appears to love his new connection with DeSean Jackson, and that makes the Eagles a quick-strike and potent attack.

Still, Pat Mahomes showed why he’s the favorite: he followed up his worst outing as a pro against the Jaguars last season to a ho-hum 40-bomb to open 2019, throwing three TDs and going for 378 yards. While I love Watson for MVP, it’s Mahomes or bust right now.

The pick: Mahomes (+400)

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