Best Week 4 NFL Props to Bet on Sunday: Dak Struggles Again
- Will Dak Prescott have any success through the air in Week 4?
- What should we expect from Baker Mayfield in his first start?
- See the best props to bet for Sunday of Week 4 in the 2018 NFL season
While the offseason provided plenty of questions, the NFL has already provided some answers through three weeks.
The Dallas Cowboys conundrum at wide receiver took center stage during the summer. Some thought removing Dez Bryant from the situation would do for Dak Prescott what Calvin Johnson’s retirement did in Detroit.
It hasn’t.
Can Dallas turn it around? Or will Week 4 just be another footnote in a slow start for America’s Team?
Answers for that along with a handful more props to bet for Week 4 here.
Best Week 4 NFL Props
Prop #1: Dak Continues to Struggle with his Arm
| How many yards will Dak Prescott throw for in Week 4? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 220.5 yards | -120 |
| Under 220.5 yards | -120 |
The experiment at wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys isn’t working.
It’s so bad, Mike Vick actually suggested Jerry Jones turning to Dez Bryant.
"The Cowboys need to jump on the phone and call @DezBryant. Put the pride to the side. It's no emotion on the sideline; it's no passion on the sideline." — @MichaelVick pic.twitter.com/Rj2MSzySU3
— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) September 24, 2018
Yikes.
In three games, Dak Prescott has thrown for 170, 160, and 168 yards.
If it wasn’t for Tavon Austin’s 64-yard touchdown in Week 2, the Cowboys would have just one 50-yard game out of their receivers.
| Cowboys’ Opponent | Passing Yards | Longest Completion | Yards per Attempt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1: @ Carolina Panthers | 138 yards | 20 yards | 4.8 |
| Week 2: vs New York Giants | 160 yards | 64 yards | 6.4 |
| Week 3: @ Seattle Seahawks | 137 yards | 20 yards | 4.0 |
Now he goes up against a stout Lions pass defense.
They held Sam Darnold and Tom Brady to under 200 yards. Jimmy Garoppolo just barely crossed the 200-yard threshold.
Here is an alarming stat: the @lions have both the top ranked pass defense (456 yards) and the worst ranked rushing defense (448 yards) in the NFL this season. #OnePride
— Dan Plocher (@DanPlocher) September 27, 2018
Prescott and the Cowboys have given us no reason to believe they’ll explode vertically.
The Pick: UNDER 220.5 Passing Yards for Prescott in Week 4 (-120).
Prop #2: Carr Will at Least Win the Battle of Passing Yards
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Derek Carr, OAK | -145 |
| Baker Mayfield, CLE | +105 |
Baker Mayfield was the story of Week 3.
After a terrible start for the Browns offense, Mayfield rescued Cleveland and led them to a win.
Break out the beer fridges.
Browns win, chaos ensues: https://t.co/LbhZxSiLs8
— Mut at Night (@MutAtNightWEEI) September 21, 2018
Now they face a stiff test in a Raiders team searching for a win of their own.
While Mayfield is the sentimental play here, it’s tough to see him out-passing Carr.
Carr has finished with better yardage than all three QBs he’s played this season. He’s topped 300 yards twice. The Raiders have also kept two of those three quarterbacks under 250 yards.
https://twitter.com/RaiderPosts/status/1044159872722513921
The Browns, on the other hand, have been hit and miss. Ben Roethlisberger went for 335 in Week 1. Meanwhile, Drew Brees threw for 243 in Week 2, and Sam Darnold a paltry 169.
| Week | Derek Carr passing yards | Opposing QB passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1: vs L.A. Rams | 303 yards | 233 yards |
| Week 2: @ Denver Broncos | 288 yards | 222 yards |
| Week 3: @ Miami Dolphins | 345 yards | 289 yards |
Without knowing how much of the playbook is available to Mayfield, it’s tough to back him here. Cleveland’s offense could (and should) look drastically different.
But until we know for sure, Carr is the play here.
The Pick: Carr Throws for More Yards than Mayfield in Week 4 (-145)
Prop #3: A Flag-Free Week for Clay Matthews?
| Will Clay Matthews get a roughing the passer penalty in Week 4? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +375 |
| No | -650 |
This one seems obvious.
At least it did last week. It showed up on the props for Week 3 and we ignored it because Clay Matthews couldn’t possibly get banged for roughing the passer AGAIN could he?
Well he did. And it was JUST. SO. SOFT.
For the third straight week, Clay Matthews is charged with a roughing the passer penalty.
Do you agree with this call? pic.twitter.com/xX10iP3w9A
— FlurrySports (@FlurrySports) September 23, 2018
So does Matthews kick off the year with four-straight RTP penalties?
No way.
Sean Davis just perfectly summed up EVERYONE’s reaction to these roughing the passer penalties pic.twitter.com/fTioV2Nn5Z
— Steve Chenevey FOX5 (@stevechenevey) September 25, 2018
While the NFL isn’t making any changes to the way the rule is implemented, its’ officials are in the spotlight. They don’t like that. We can expect that the flags, regardless of what they say, will have to be a little more deserved.
Roughing the Passer calls are absolutely out of control.
— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) September 25, 2018
As for Matthews? I think this is the opposite of a bad rap. They may be a little more lenient with the Packers linebacker. Because if they aren’t, they’ll have a riot at Lambeau Field.
The Pick: Clay Matthews Does Not Get Called for Roughing the Passer (-650)
Prop #4: Ravens Perfect Red Zone Touchdown Rate Ends
| Will the Ravens convert all of their red zone trips into TDs in Week 4? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +300 |
| No | -500 |
In Pittsburgh, the Steelers welcome one of the most efficient offenses to town in the Ravens.
Baltimore is converting red zone trips into touchdownds at an unheard of 100% rate. Even MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes can’t boast that kind of record.
Now it’s up to the Steelers to see if they can stop the Ravens inside the 20.
| Rank | Team | Touchdowns allowed per red zone appearance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | .167 |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans | .167 |
| 3 | Miami Dolphins | .333 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings* | .333 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | .333 |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | .667 |
*as of the completion of Week 3
The Steelers find themselves near the bottom of the league when it comes to touchdowns allowed per Red Zone trip.
But Pittsburgh showed some life defensively against the Buccaneers in Week 3. They picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick in the red zone. They also were able to hold Tampa to two red zone field goals twice on Monday night.
The first team to score 12 TDs on the first 12 trips to the red zone.
Catch 'em all: pic.twitter.com/taNbVwF0Uv
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 25, 2018
Expect the Steelers will turn up the heat when Baltimore crosses the 20.
The Pick: Baltimore Does Not Convert All Red Zone Trips into TDs (-500)
Prop #5: Don’t Expect Much From Rosen in 1st Start
| How many yards will Josh Rosen throw for in Week 4? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 225.5 yards | -120 |
| Under 225.5 yards | -120 |
While the Seahawks defense isn’t as daunting as a few years ago, Josh Rosen will have his work cut out for him in his first career start.
After the rookie took over in Week 3, he had trouble against a frisky Bears defense.
What will we see from Josh Rosen in his first start vs. the Seahawks? @DCarr8 breaks down his film from his last game
📺: @NFLTotalAccess #BeRedSeeRed https://t.co/WMS9UyQEnH
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) September 28, 2018
Seattle meanwhile, is sixth in the league in PFF’s coverage metric (79.3), despite ranking second-last in pressure (56.7).
After giving up 329 yards to Case Keenum in Week 1, they’ve locked it down too. They’ve given up 200 yards or less in each of their last two.
Expect the rookie to struggle.
The Pick: UNDER 225.5 Passing Yards for Josh Rosen in Week 4 (-120)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
