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Breece Hall Now Favored to Win NFL OROY Over Kenny Pickett

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Aug 25, 2022 · 2:58 PM PDT

Breece Hall rush versus Falcons
Aug 22, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) runs with the ball while Atlanta Falcons cornerback Casey Hayward (29) looks to tackle him during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
  • Breece Hall is a +850 favorite to win the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
  • Kenny Pickett has the next shortest odds, followed by a trio of players including Pickett’s teammate George Pickens
  • Read below for complete odds, analysis and best bets to win the NFL OROY award

From 2015 to 2018, three running backs took home NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. In the past three years, however, running backs have been shut out.

The Jets Breece Hall is looking to buck that trend this season, and oddsmakers are bullish on his prospects to win the coveted award.

2022 NFL OROY Odds

Player Odds
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ) +850
Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT) +900
Sky Moore (WR, KC) +1000
George Pickens (WR, PIT) +1000
Chris Olave (WR, NO) +1000
Romeo Doubs (WR, GB) +1100
Jalen Tolbert (WR, DAL) +1200
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ) +1400
Drake London (WR, ATL) +1400
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA) +1600
Christian Watson (GB, WR) +1600
Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU) +1600
Treylon Burks (WR, TEN) +1800
James Cook (RB, BUF) +1800
Jameson Williams (WR, DET) +2000
Jahan Dotson (WR, WAS) +2000
Desmond Ridder (QB, ATL) +2000
David Bell (WR, CLE) +2500
Alec Pierce (WR, IND) +3000
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC) +3000
Brian Robinson Jr (RB, WAS) +3500
Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL) +6000

Odds as of August 25th at DraftKings Sportsbook

The 2022 second-round pick now boasts the shortest price tag in the OROY odds at +850. When this NFL Futures market opened up, Hall was actually priced at +800, but a pair of quarterbacks (Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett) had shorter odds.

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Fast forward four and a half months and Willis is priced outside the top 20. He wound up slipping to the third round in the NFL Draft and will be hard-pressed to get off the bench in Tennessee.

Pickett meanwhile, saw his price lengthened to +900 which ranks just behind Hall. There’s no guarantee the Pittsburgh product will be on the field when the season starts though, as he’s in a battle to win the Steelers’ number one job.

Fade Bryce Hall Futures

The bull case on Hall to win OROY is simple. New York invested a lot of draft capital to take him, and he has a history of carrying a heavy workload. In three years at Iowa State, Hall rushed the ball 718 times, earning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year honors twice.

He’s a three-down back who’s excellent at catching passes out of the backfield. Hall has the talent to be one of the lone bell cow running backs in the league, giving him the potential for an outrageous ceiling should he earn the bulk of the Jets’ backfield touches.

The bear case, however, is just as simple. For starters, the Jets’ offense doesn’t project to be very good. New York finished 22nd on offense per DVOA last season, and have already suffered injuries to starting QB Zach Wilson and one of their top offensive tackles Mekhi Becton.

Secondly, the Jets’ backfield is extremely crowded. Last year’s fourth-round pick Michael Carter will be Hall’s chief competition, and while you shouldn’t read too much into a report that he’s working as the number one back, he is stealing pass-down work in the preseason. The group also includes Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson among others, and they’ll also siphon touches away from Hall in the early going.

Betting on Hall is a bet that he’s going to have ridiculous efficiency and production on a team that won’t be very competitive. That’s not a recipe to earn OROY honors.

Believe the Pickens Hype

Apologies to Pickett, but the Steelers rookie to bet on to win OROY is George Pickens. The Georgia product fell to Pittsburgh in the second round, but many experts believe he would have been the first wideout selected had he not had injury setbacks in college.

Pickens has been the star of Steelers training camp and has balled out in the preseason. He appears to have overtaken Chase Claypool in two receiver sets and at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, he’s going to be a lethal red zone target. Put him on your OROY betting card.

Pick: George Pickens (+1000)

Don’t Sleep on Robinson Jr and Likely

Two longshots to consider are Washington’s Brian Robinson and Baltimore’s Isaiah Likley. Robinson is getting first team work in the Commanders backfield ahead of Antonio Gibson, and has a nose for the end zone.

He scored 16 times as a senior at Alabama and has already hit paydirt once in the preseason. He’s a two-down back only, but a monopoly on the goal line work for a team that projects to be run-heavy is worth a flier at +3500.

Likely is also worth a sprinkle based on what we’ve seen over the past month. The tight end has been the star of Ravens training camp, and most believe he’s third in line for targets after Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman.

He was the number one graded pass catcher in Week 2 of the preseason, hauling in eight receptions for 100 yards and a score.

His talent is going to force the Ravens to deploy even more two tight end sets, and if Andrews were to suffer any kind of injury Likely’s ceiling would be sky-high.

Picks: Brian Robinson Jr (+3500) and Isaiah Likely (+6000)

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