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Colts’ Super Bowl Odds Improve After Acquiring Carson Wentz from Eagles

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Feb 18, 2021 · 11:31 AM PST

Philadelphia Eagles' Carson Wentz
Philadelphia Eagles' Carson Wentz (11), Jalen Hurts (2) and head coach Doug Pederson during an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks, Monday, Nov. 30, 2020, in Philadelphia. The Seahawks defeated the Eagles (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)
  • The 2022 Super Bowl odds for the Indianapolis Colts shortened from +2500 to +2200 after acquiring quarterback Carson Wentz from the Philadelphia Eagles
  • Indy is surrendering a conditional second-round draft pick and a third-round choice in exchange for the QB
  • Colts head coach Frank Reich previously worked with Wentz as Philly’s offensive coordinator

Those Carson Wentz-to-Indianapolis rumors finally came to fruition on Thursday. The Philadelphia Eagles dealt the quarterback to the Colts for a 2021 third-round draft pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick. That draft pick could turn into a first-round choice if Wentz meets certain achievements with the Colts.

Immediately, there was a shortening in Indy’s 2022 Super Bowl odds.  The Colts went from a betting line of +2500 to odds of +2200.

2022 Super Bowl Odds

Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +525
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +900
Green Bay Packers +1000
Buffalo Bills +1200
Baltimore Ravens +1300
Los Angeles Rams +1300
San Francisco 49ers +1400
Cleveland Browns +2000
New Orleans Saints +2000
Indianapolis Colts +2200
Miami Dolphins +2500
Seattle Seahawks +2500
Dallas Cowboys +2800
Tennessee Titans +2800
Los Angeles Chargers +3000
Pittsburgh Steelers +3000

Odds as of Feb. 18th at DraftKings.

Wentz was the second player chosen in the 2016 NFL Draft. This deal means that the first two players taken in that draft have now moved to new teams this offseason. The Los Angeles Rams traded QB Jared Goff, the first pick in 2016, to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford.

Philly will absorb $33.8 million in dead cap space in 2021 by trading Wentz.

Well, That Was Underwhelming

Certainly the best available QB on the market – at least until Deshaun Watson’s future in Houston is clarified – a number of teams were supposedly checking into what it would take to pry Wentz away from the Eagles.

In the end, it turned out to be not all that much. That conditional second-round draft choice only becomes a first-round pick if the injury-prone Wentz plays 75% of all snaps for the Colts next season, or 70% and Indy makes the playoffs.

Which Wentz Is Coming to the Colts?

Wentz has shown the ability to lead an NFL team to the postseason. Last season, though, he also displayed the ability to implode spectacularly.

Wentz was picked off an NFL-high 15 times in 2020, while throwing for 16 touchdowns. He ultimately lost his starting job to rookie Jalen Hurts. Philly was 3-8-1 in games in which Wentz was the starting QB. He was also sacked an NFL-high 50 times behind a Eagles offensive line that played musical chairs with their starting five all season long.

In earlier seasons, Wentz displayed the talents of a QB who can make things happen. With Colts head coach Frank Reich as his offensive coordinator, the Eagles were 11-2 when Wentz was at the helm in 2017. He led the NFL in QBR (78.5) and TD pass percentage (7.5). However, an injury ended his season and it was backup Nick Foles who led Philly to a Super Bowl title that season.

Wentz led the Eagles to a 9-7 record and an NFC East title in 2019. He posted an 81:21 TD pass to interception ratio from 2017-19. In two of those three seasons, his passer rating exceeded 100.

A Good Fit for Indy

In the past four years, Indy made the playoffs with Andrew Luck (2018) and Philip Rivers (2020) at QB. The Colts missed the postseason in 2017 and 2019 with Jacoby Brissett under center. This is a team that isn’t far off Super Bowl contention, and going back to Brissett was never going to be a solution.

Indy’s offense rated 11th in the NFL in both rushing (124.8 yards per game) and passing (253.3 ypg) in 2020. They were the ninth-best scoring offense, averaging 28.2 points per game.

Rookie Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1,169 yards and Marlon Mack will be coming back from a knee injury. They’re deep at wide receiver and might suit up the NFL’s best offensive line.

Defensively, the Colts were eighth overall in the league (332.1 ypg). They were second-best at stopping the run (90.5 ypg).

Reich is the ideal person to rebuild Wentz’s confidence. Free from Philadelphia fiasco, he could be poised for a comeback year.

Wentz’s arrival makes the Colts AFC South favorites. Last season, they gave Buffalo a tussle in the AFC Wild Card round.

They won’t be Super Bowl favorites, but if Wentz rediscovers his game, Indy is an ideal value play.

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