NFL Division Odds & Picks Ahead of NFL Season Opener
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the heaviest favorite in the NFL division odds, at -278 to win the NFC South
- Set at -230 to win the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills are the best in the AFC
- Both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are rated at odds of +150 to win the NFC East
Whether it’s the NFL division odds, the AFC Conference odds, or the Super Bowl odds, everyone seems to be liking the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills are the +600 chalk in the Super Bowl odds, and the +235 choice to capture the AFC Championship Game. And no AFC team is given a better chance of taking the division title than the Bills. Buffalo is a -230 favorite to win the AFC East for the third year in succession.
Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at a favorite’s betting line of -278, are given more of a chance to win in the NFL Division odds than the Bills. The Buccaneers are among five division winners from last season who are favored to repeat.
NFL Division Odds Betting Trends
If you’re looking for NFL betting trends in terms of division winners, last season, four of eight divisions were showing repeat champions. Along with Buffalo, the Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West), Tennessee Titans (AFC South) and Green Bay Packers (NFC North) defended their titles.
In 2020, just three teams repeated. There were four teams who retained their division crowns in both 2019 and 2018. Based on this trend, it’s wise to be wagering on a 50% turnover in division champions.
Which teams will stay on top and which will take a tumble? Let’s look at that and assess the contenders in all eight NFL divisions.
2022 AFC East Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -230 |
| Miami Dolphins | +475 |
| New England Patriots | +475 |
| New York Jets | +2500 |
Odds as of September 2 at Barstool Sportsbook. See the available Barstool Sportsbook promo code before wagering
You can search a long time and not find a flaw in the Bills’ lineup. Quarterback Josh Allen is the chalk in the NFL MVP odds. Stefon Diggs is the NFL’s most productive wide receiver. The defense is stout.
My new favorite handshake:
Josh Allen 🤝 Gabe Davis #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/xPm0Akz5zZ
— Dan Fetes (@danfetes) August 23, 2022
Adding two-time Super Bowl-winning LB Von Miller and depth WR Jamison Crowder via free agency, as well as RB James Cook through the draft, the Bills addressed the few needs they have.
Perhaps the best thing going for Buffalo is that there’s no team worthy of consideration as heirs to their throne. Buffalo will continue to reign over the AFC East and it won’t be close.
Pick: Buffalo Bills (-230)
2022 AFC South Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | -134 |
| Tennessee Titans | +190 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +700 |
| Houston Texans | +2500 |
A year ago, the Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl by trading for a veteran QB named Matt who was a stats machine. Could history repeat itself?
Matt Ryan said he wanted to go somewhere that was "built to win" after 14 seasons in Atlanta. The 37-year-old landed with the #Colts.
"I feel like there's a lot of football left in my tank and hopefully, however long that era can go, we can make it a successful one." @WTHRcom pic.twitter.com/eDhfhV0wR4
— John Doran (@JohnDoranTV) September 1, 2022
Matt Ryan did everything in Atlanta except win the Super Bowl. Like Matthew Stafford last season, he’s getting a new lease on life, not to mention the chance to hand the ball off to NFL rushing champion Jonathan Taylor.
The Colts have gone the longest (2014) of the four AFC South teams without a division crown. The drought is ending this season.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts (-134)
2022 AFC West Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +170 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +225 |
| Denver Broncos | +270 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +650 |
No team has held forth as a division title winner longer than the Kansas City Chiefs. They’ve been AFC West champs every season since 2016.
The problem is that the Chiefs must deal with the NFL’s toughest schedule this season. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos added Russell Wilson, and the Los Angeles Chargers still have Justin Herbert under center. And they’ve added Khalil Mack on the defensive side of the ball.
Most 4th quarter touchdowns in the NFL last season:
Justin Herbert 15
Matthew Stafford 12
Josh Allen 12
Patrick Mahomes 11
Joe Burrow 10 pic.twitter.com/ACnDkjGAGF— Pinhead Sports® (@_PinheadSports) September 1, 2022
Herbert will be taking another step forward this season, and he’ll be taking the Chargers to the top in the process.
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (+225)
2022 AFC North Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | +140 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +170 |
| Cleveland Browns | +450 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +800 |
Historically, the Cincinnati Bengals tend to regress in seasons following a Super Bowl appearance. This Cincinnati team certainly arrived at the big game ahead of schedule, but with Joe Burrow at QB, Joe Mixon in the backfield and Ja’Marr Chase running routes, they remain the most dangerous team in the AFC North.
Joe Burrow is THAT dude… Joe Burrow has BEEN that dude.. he is going to continue to BE that dude… Finish The Fight Joe… pic.twitter.com/QlDDeo1ANL
— Bengalorian (@thebengalorian) August 31, 2022
Cincinnati’s defense is solid and often overlooked as a contributor to the Bengals success story. And the Bengals invested heavily to fix the team’s weakest link, the offensive line.
The AFC North will come down to a battle between the Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. Whoever does best in the two head-to-head meetings probably wins the division.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (+170)
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2022 NFC East Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | +150 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +150 |
| Washington Commanders | +500 |
| New York Giants | +750 |
On paper, Dallas should win this division. But the Cowboys just can’t seem to get out of their own way. Their lack of discipline continues to be an issue.
Pictures speak 1,000 words.
I want all the AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts this year. pic.twitter.com/Wmdy2pD2aj
— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) September 1, 2022
Over in Philadelphia, the Eagles are quietly going about their business. Jalen Hurts has a solid back in Miles Sanders and a new sensation at wideout in AJ Brown. The Eagles also have the NFL’s easiest schedule.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+150)
2022 NFC West Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +125 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +155 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +400 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +2000 |
Everything went right for the Rams last season en route to their Super Bowl triumph. Cooper Kupp was a sensational pass catcher. He and Stafford were virtually unstoppable as a combination.
Cooper Kupp is #4 on the #NFLTop100. Ranked the best WR in the league. Nobody better in our eyes at the WR position. Coming off statistically the greatest and most complete season a WR has ever had. True champion in every single way. pic.twitter.com/vna6KiR24p
— Rams Bros. (@RamsBrothers) August 29, 2022
Can that happen two years in a row? Probably not. At the same time, is it wise to expect San Francisco to win the division with inexperienced Trey Lance as QB1?
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (+125)
2022 NFC North Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | -182 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +270 |
| Detroit Lions | +900 |
| Chicago Bears | +1400 |
Backing the Packers as NFC North champs has made perfect sense for years. Green Bay has basically been winning this division by default.
Most 4th quarter passing TD since 2019:
KIRK COUSINS 27
Josh Allen 26
Tom Brady 26
Patrick Mahomes 25 pic.twitter.com/iOZ8LsgJ9G— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) August 31, 2022
Is there any team capable of challenging Green Bay and two-time reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers? The Detroit Lions will be better, but the best bet to send the Packers packing are the Minnesota Vikings.
With QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson at his disposal, new coach Kevin O’Connell, a disciple of Rams coach Sean McVay, will get more out of this team than Mike Zimmer ever could.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings (+270)
2022 NFC South Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -278 |
| New Orleans Saints | +325 |
| Carolina Panthers | +1100 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +3000 |
There’s no better lock in the NFL Division odds than Tom Brady and Tampa Bay. This is more of a gimme than Tiger Woods lining up a three-foot putt. The Buccaneers and Bills are both set at a league-high 11.5 in the NFL win totals. At -650, Tampa Bay is also given the shortest line in the NFL playoff odds.
🐐💯
For the 4th time since 2011, @TomBrady is chosen by his peers as the No. 1 player in the #NFLTop100. pic.twitter.com/SsNShIoYcx
— NFL (@NFL) August 29, 2022
Atlanta is in disarray. Carolina thinks Baker Mayfield is the answer, while New Orleans is trusting Jameis Winston with the team’s future.
The only team capable of foiling Tampa Bay’s division title hopes are the Buccaneers themselves. And do you think Brady is going to let that happen?
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-278)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
