NFL Futures Predictions Based on Updated NFL SOS Rankings for 2nd Half of 2023-24 Season
- The 2023-24 NFL season has officially reached the midway point
- Matt McEwan has recalculated NFL strength of schedule rankings for the 2nd half of the season
- See which teams have the toughest and easiest second half schedules below
With Week 9 in the books, we have officially reached the halfway point of the 2023-24 NFL season. The NFL playoff picture is really starting to take shape and every one of the final nine weeks of the season will be significant, as long as you’re not the NY Giants …
With that said, I have taken a look at the second half schedules for all teams and used my NFL strength of schedule calculation (can see all 32 teams by clicking that link) to rank the difficulty of each team’s remaining schedule. As we sit here trying to figure out not only who will make the playoffs, but also playoff seeding, second half SOS will play a crucial role in both.
Should Bettors Fade the Ravens & Their Toughest 2nd Half Schedule?
No team faces a tougher second half than the Baltimore Ravens. Their average opponent is a 10-win team, according to updated NFL win totals, and seven of their eight remaining games are against a nine-win team or better – the Rams are the lone exception as a 7.5-win team.
Baltimore’s win total is set at 11.5 and their odds to win the AFC North are as long as -130. Before we dive into how whether there’s a bet to be made with the Ravens, here’s a closer look at their remaining games:
Ravens’ Remaining Opponents
| Week | Opponent | Opponent’s Updated Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cleveland Browns | 9.5 |
| 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Chargers | 9 |
| 13 | BYE | – |
| 14 | Los Angeles Rams | 7.5 |
| 15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 11.5 |
| 16 | San Francisco 49ers | 11.5 |
| 17 | Miami Dolphins | 11.5 |
| 18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 |
That is an extremely difficult second half schedule. There are no “gimmies” in that list, especially when you consider the Steelers already beat them a few weeks ago and Matthew Stafford is likely back from his injury. The bye week might be desperately needed after the next three games.
Best Bet on Ravens Futures
Fortunately for the Ravens, the team with the second-toughest remaining schedule is the Cincinnati Bengals, who face a 9.72-win team (on average) over the final nine weeks of the season. The Bengals are the team I feel has the best shot at catching the Ravens in the division. Although I do not love that Cincinnati is already 0-2 in the division, they can hand Baltimore their second loss in the division in Week 11.
So, the best bet around the Ravens to make is not actually one on the Ravens. It’s a bet that fades Baltimore. If you head over to FanDuel, you can get the Bengals at +320 to win the AFC North. Those odds imply a 23.8% chance the Bengals win the division, and I think their chances are much closer to 40% based off the way they’re playing right now.
Are the Falcons a Good Bet Down the Stretch with the Easiest Schedule?
No team faces an easier second half schedule than the Atlanta Falcons, whose average opponent is just a 6.88-win team over their final eight games – they are on bye in Week 11. Atlanta is currently one game back of the Saints in the NFC South but are 2-0 within the division. They have yet to play the Saints, however.
The Falcons are as long as +210 to win the division and their win total is set at 8.5. Let’s have a closer look at their remaining schedule before we dive into whether there’s a bet to be made:
Falcons’ Remaining Opponents
| Week | Opponent | Opponent’s Updated Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Arizona Cardinals | 3.5 |
| 11 | BYE | – |
| 12 | New Orleans Saints | 9.5 |
| 13 | New York Jets | 8 |
| 14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 |
| 15 | Carolina Panthers | 4.5 |
| 16 | Indianapolis Colts | 7.5 |
| 17 | Chicago Bears | 5 |
| 18 | New Orleans Saints | 9.5 |
While this schedule certainly looks easy right now, there are a few things to point out: (1) the Cardinals should be a little better with Kyler Murray expected to return this weekend; (2) based off his comments after MNF in Week 9, Aaron Rodgers could be under center for the Jets when they take on the Falcons in Week 13; and (3) there’s a good chance Justin Fields is playing for his job in Week 17, so that might be a bit of a scrappy Bears team.
Best Bet on Falcons Futures
While I do agree Taylor Heinicke is an upgrade over Desmond Ridder, I don’t think he solves all of Atlanta’s problems. We did just see them lose to a quarterback who had no practice with his new team. Another problem for the Falcons is that the team with the second-easiest second half schedule is the New Orleans Saints, the team who currently holds a one-game lead over them in the NFC South.
I’d like to bet the under on Atlanta’s win total (8.5), but don’t love that the best price is -150. There are too many things that could go the Falcons’ way over the final nine week to help them squeak out five wins – Rodgers not returning in time, the Bears pulling the plug on Fields, or even the Saints having nothing to play for in Week 18.
The -150 bet I prefer is what I mentioned last: the Saints wrapping up the division. So, again, I’m not technically making a bet on the Falcons, but one against them. You can find New Orleans to win the NFC South at this price over at BetMGM.
From Weeks 14-16, the Saints play the Panthers, Giants, and Rams. I think they have this division sealed after that stretch. Derek Carr seems to be getting much more comfortable in the new offense and their defense is one of the best in the league.
Are the Texans a Good Bet to Make the Playoffs?
I’ll answer this one quickly for you: yes!
Houston is tied for the third-easiest second half schedule, as their average opponent is just a 7.78-win team. They are just one game out of the playoffs right now but also have the Bills a half-game in front of them as well.
However, the Bills don’t look right and they also face the third-toughest second half schedule, which is an average 9.50-win opponent each week. Those opponents for the Bills include the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins (in Miami). I think those are all losses, which would make the Bills a 9-8 team, assuming they manage to beat the Broncos, Jets, Chargers, and Patriots.
Now let’s have a look at those AFC North teams who are taking up all three wild card spots at the moment. They all play at least three more games against other AFC North teams, with the Steelers and Bengals having four more. Whether a team like Pittsburgh falls off and loses a bunch of those games, or if they all split, it opens the door for someone to get hot down the stretch and sneak in.
You can get the Texans at +250 to make the playoffs at both FanDuel and DraftKings. BUT, I actually think you wait one week to make this bet. Houston takes on the Bengals this week, and I don’t like their chances as seven-point dogs on the road. If they lose, I suspect we’ll be able to get the Texans at odds a touch longer than +300 as they prepare for a stretch of games against the Cardinals, Jaguars (who they hammered earlier this year), and Broncos.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
