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Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Predictions & Picks (Jan. 18)

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Published:


Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud scrambling out of the pocket
Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) scrambles in the backfield as Kansas City Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis (56) defends during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
  • The Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans for the second time this season in the Divisional Round (Jan 18)
  • Kansas City opened as a big favorite, and the Texans vs Chiefs spread has only grown since then
  • Below, see the Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs odds, predictions, and picks

The Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 8-0 home, 8-9 ATS) put their perfect home record on the line, along with a seven game postseason win streak that dates back to January 2022, when they host the Houston Texans (11-7, 5-4 away, 8-8-2 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, January 18, at 4:30 pm ET.

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Texans +8.5 (-110) +400 O 41.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110) -550 U 41.5 (-110)

Kansas City opened as a 7.5-point home favorite in the Divisional Round NFL odds and the line has been bet up to 8.5 as of Friday afternoon. On the moneyline, Kansas City has shortened all the way from -345 to -550. At the same time, the Texans moved from +275 underdogs to massive +400 longshots to reach their first-ever AFC Championship Game. Houston is 0-5 all-time in the Divisional Playoffs in the 21-year history of the team.

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The game total, on the other hand, has been on the way down. After opening at 43.5, the over/under is currently sitting at just 41.5.

HOU vs KC Betting Trends

Despite tying the Lions for the best record in the NFL during the regular season, the Chiefs were actually a game under .500 against the spread. Their point differential of +59 wasn’t even in the top ten of the NFL. That said, the Chiefs did cover the spread in their last three games of the season, excluding Week 18 when they rested almost every starter during a 38-0 loss to Denver. From Week 15 to 17, KC took care of Cleveland (21-7 as 3.5-point road favorites), Houston (27-19 as three-point home favorites), and Pittsburgh (29-10 as 1.5-point road favorites).

After taking down the Chargers in the Wild Card (32-12 as 2.5-point home underdogs), the Texans have now covered two in a row and are 8-5-1 ATS since starting the season 0-3-1.

Houston’s 27-19 setback to the Chiefs in Week 16 was a fairly tight game. The Chiefs had a slight edge in yards (375-311) and time of possession (33:52 to 26:08) but it was Houston mistakes that really handed KC the victory. The Texans committed the only two turnovers of the game and took six penalties to the Chiefs’ two.

Their execution wasn’t much cleaner against the Chargers last week, though. CJ Stroud threw two picks and Houston committed three total turnovers, along with taking eight penalties. The defense, however, came up huge, generating four takeaways and four sacks, while limiting LAC to just 261 total yards of offense.

Kansas City enters the Divisional Round as the +350 second-favorite in the Super Bowl 59 odds, just behind Detroit (+260). The Texans are +5000 longshots, the worst odds of the eight remaining teams.

Texans vs Chiefs Predictions

I was extremely encouraged by what I saw from Houston’s defense in the Wild Card Round. This unit has the personnel to dominate, especially in the pass rush with Danielle Hunter (12 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr (11 sacks).

The Chiefs finished the season ranked a mediocre 13th by PFF in pass blocking. Patrick Mahomes was sacked a career-high 36 times, eight more than in any other season during his seven-year career. Increased pressure is a big part of the reason why Mahomes has posted passer ratings of 92.6 and 93.5 in the last two seasons, while having a 98.5 or better number in his first five (and at least 105.3 in four of those).

I am not going to bet on Mahomes and the Chiefs to lose at home in the postseason. That hasn’t happened since they lost to the Bengals in January 2022. But I do firmly expect this to be a close game throughout. The Houston defense is too talented to let a declining Kansas City attack boat race them.

Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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