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Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts – Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for Week 3

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Sep 24, 2022 · 7:00 AM PDT

Travis Kelce celebration
Sep 11, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, United States; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates his touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Nfl Cardinals Nfl Game Kansas City Chiefs At Arizona Cardinals
  • The 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs are on the road to take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3
  • Indianapolis has yet to win a game this season, and were blown out last week by the Jaguars
  • See the Chiefs vs Colts picks and odds ahead of their Week 3 clash, and our pick below

Anyone else feel like we’re walking into an ambush on this one?

On one hand, you have the Kansas City Chiefs, clearly the upper crust of the NFL elite and one of the favorites in the 2023 Super Bowl odds.

They’re 2-0, well rested and coming off a nice win over the Chargers on Thursday Night.

On the other side, you’ve got the 0-1-1 Indianapolis Colts, who are coming off a shutout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

It feels a little too easy taking the Chiefs as a 5.5-point road favorite, doesn’t it?

Things kick off at 1pm ET on Sunday (Sept 25) from Lucas Oil Stadium, in a game that can be seen on CBS.

Chiefs vs Colts Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Kansas City Chiefs -245 -5.5 (-112) Ov 50.5 (-109)
Indianapolis Colts +195 +5.5 (-109) Un 50.5 (-112)

Odds as of September 24th from Barstool Sporstbook. 

No worries in taking the visitors, according to the latest NFL Betting Trends. It’s nearly unanimous for KC, as 93% of the bets against the spread and on the moneyline are on the Chiefs.

Betting is nearly split down the middle on the total, however, as 51% of the wagers are taking the under.

Kansas City Betting Outlook

So much for the loss of Tyreek Hill slowing down the Chiefs’ offensive machine.

Kansas City looks just as devastating as they did a year ago, with a more diversified portfolio. It all still works because of the brilliance of head coach Andy Reid, and the exceptional play of quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes has seven TD tosses with no interceptions through two games, and boasts an NFL-best 127.9 passer rating. Travis Kelce is also still the best pass-catching tight end in the NFL, leading the team in receptions and yards.

Their offensive line also seems stronger than in recent years, as they’ve allowed just one sack on the season.

They’re also helping with the run game, albeit in a limited sample. The three-headed monster of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (7.7), rookie Isiah Pacheco (4.9) and veteran Jerick McKinnon (4.3) are all averaging better than 4.2 yards per carry.

Other factors tilting heavily in the Chiefs’ favor: Mahomes has lost just twice in 15 September career starts, throwing 48 touchdowns to just three interceptions.

KC also benefits from more time in the lab. They’ll be looking for their 10th straight win with extended rest — that’s the current best active streak going in the NFL.

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Indianapolis Betting Outlook

While Mahomes is business as usual, Matt Ryan is about as polar opposite in play as can be. The transition from from Atlanta hasn’t gone seamless, with Indianapolis holding only a tie in a pair of supposed winnable games, before the schedule got meaty in Week 3.

Their latest was a 24-0 defeat at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Ryan was front and center of the issues. He was just 16-for-30 for 195 yards and three interceptions. Ryan was also sacked five teams and has now been taken down seven times this season.

That once-dependable offensive line wasn’t able to protect Ryan or get all-world running back Jonathan Taylor any room to spin.

Taylor finished with 54 yards rushing on just nine totes — a far cry from Week 1, when he carried 31 times for 161 yards and a touchdown in the 20-20 tie with the Texans.

There is some good news, however. Receiver Michael Pittman Jr (quad) was able to get in some practice this week after missing last week’s loss to the Jags.

Alec Pierce (concussion), a second-round pick in last year’s draft, was also able to practice. If they can go, they could provide some playmakers to let Ryan make some easier throws, while getting more Chiefs out of the box, letting Taylor find some creases.

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Chiefs vs Colts Pick

The only thing keeping the Chiefs from a 30-spot last time out was a legitimately strong Chargers team, in a much deserved 27-24 KC win.

Kansas City has poured in nine TD’s to the Colts’ two on the year, and Indy’s D features a limited Indy front seven, as Shaquille Leonard (back), Yannick Ngakoue (back) and DeForest Buckner (hip) have all been on the injury report.

We haven’t even talked about a much-improved Chiefs D, which had the winning pick-six score to put away the Chargers.

And yet the line shifted in Indy’s favor, from an opening 7-point spread to its current 5.5.

Try to put gut feeling of too good to be true aside, and take the generous gift from the oddsmakers.

Mahomes is a wrecking ball, and while the Colts will likely play better (or their season is toast), I don’t know if their best effort is enough to stop one of the favorites in the 2023 NFL MVP odds.

The Pick:

  • Chiefs -5.5 (-110); 1.5 units to win 1.33 units
  • Week 2 record: 1-2; Overall: 1-2 ATS, 1-0 O/U, -3.53 units
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