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Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Odds, Picks & Prediction for Thursday Night Football

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Sep 28, 2023 · 1:05 PM PDT

The Detroit Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as the away chalk at the Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) is tackled by Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) during their football game on Sunday, January, 8, 2022 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin Apc Packers Vs Lions 5414 010823 Wag
  • The Detroit Lions are 1.5-point road favorites over the Green Bay Packers in the Week 4 NFL TNF game on Thursday, September 28
  • Detroit is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games as the away chalk at Lambeau Field
  • Green Bay is 26-4 straight up in the last 30 home games against the Lions but are they the best bet in the Lions vs Packers odds?

In the grand scheme of things, the Detroit Lions (2-1, 2-1 ATS) going to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers (2-1, 3-0 ATS) does not paint a pretty picture. Green Bay has won 26 of the past 30 home games against Detroit. However, make the Lions the betting choice in the Lions vs Packers odds and suddenly, the landscape is changing.

The Lions are 1.5-point away favorites at Green Bay in the NFL Week 4 TNF game.

It’s only the sixth time since 1986 that Detroit is going to be facing the Packers on the road as the favorites, but from a Lions point of view, it’s a play that’s worthy of taking a Lambeau leap. The Lions are 4-1 against the spread in their last five trips to Green Bay as the away chalk.

Let’s take a deeper look into the Lions vs Packers odds and offer you our prediction for this Week 4 showdown of NFC North rivals.

Lions vs Packers Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Detroit Lions -120 -1.5 (-108) Over 46 (-112)
Green Bay Packers +100 +1.5 (-112) Under 46 (-108)

In the Lions vs Packers odds, the Lions are -120 moneyline favorites, giving them a 54.55% implied win probability. The total is set at 46 points.  The total has gone under in six of the last nine games between these two teams.

Detroit vs Green Bay odds as of September 27 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to claim a DraftKings promo code to make your Lions vs Packers picks and to bet on other Week 4 NFL action. And check out DraftKings daily menu of odds boosts for TNF and other games this week. Right now DK has a 50% profit boost available for any Lions vs Packers bet.

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Kickoff for this game at Lambeau Field on Thursday, September 28 is set for 8:15pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by Prime Video and by DAZN in Canada.

Detroit vs Green Bay Betting Trends

Looking at the NFL public betting splits on this game, there’s a lot of love for the Lions. Detroit is pulling 73% of spread handle and 78% of moneyline handle. The over is drawing 62% of handle on the total splits in the Lions vs Packers public betting.

Detroit is 3-0 both SU and ATS in the last three games against Green Bay. It’s the first time since 2017-18 that the Lions have won three in a row over the Packers. Detroit actually put together a four-game run back then, sweeping the season series in 2017 and 2018.

At Green Bay, the Lions are 2-3 SU in the past five games. However, Detroit is 4-2 ATS in the last six games played at Lambeau Field.

Detroit is the co-seventh betting choice in the odds to win the Super Bowl at +2000. Green Bay is given a betting line of +5000 in this market.

Lions Defense Steps Up

Last season, Detroit was known as a team that piled up points while also surrendering a ton. Three games into this season, that vibe is changing.

The Lions went 10-7 on the total last season, hitting the over in 58.8% of their games. That was tied for the second-best over rate in the NFL. This season, though, Detroit is getting it done defensively.

The Lions are 1-2 on the over/under. In last week’s 20-6 win over Atlanta, they held the Falcons without a touchdown. The six points permitted were the lowest in a game since Dan Campbell became head coach in 2021.

Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson was named NFL Defensive Player of the Week. The second player chosen in the 2022 NFL Draft recorded 2.0 sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, and two passes defended against Atlanta. According to the NFL, he’s the first player to achieve this stat line in a game since Houston’s JJ Watt did so in 2015.

Key Injuries a Concern for Packers

Green Bay is uncertain whether two key skill players, RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) and WR Christian Watson (hamstring) will be good to go for the TNF tilt with the Lions. Both are showing in the Packers injury report as questionable. Be sure to check on their statuses before making any bets in the Lions vs Packers player props.

Watson has been out all season. Jones has been inactive the past two weeks. He’s been limited in practice this week. However, the word is that both players are trending toward playing.

Also of concern is the status of oft-injured LT David Bakhtiari on the Lions vs Packers injury report. His chronically problematic left knee kept him out of Green Bay’s last two games. The man who’d be charged with blocking Hutchinson has missed all but 15 of Green Bay’s last 38 regular-season games.

Lions vs Packers Prediction

The Packers are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season, just one of three teams that can make that boast. Going back to last season, the Pack is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games. Green Bay is also a league-leading 3-0 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2021 season.

However, it’s the Lions who are the NFL kings of covering. Since Campbell took over as head coach, Detroit is an NFL-best 25-12 (67.6%) ATS. As an away team, the Lions are 11-7 ATS over that span.

Lions vs Packers Picks: Detroit Lions -1.5 (-110)

TNF Record: 3-0-0

Want more Lions vs Packers picks? Check out our Thursday Night Football same game parlay here.


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