Baker Mayfield & Carson Wentz Now Among Top 3 NFL MVP Contenders
By Bryan Thiel in NFL Football
Updated: March 26, 2020 at 2:43 pm EDTPublished:
- Andrew Lucks’ retirement was good news for Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz’s MVP odds
- Veteran QBs including Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers saw their odds fade
- Who’s providing the best value in the NFL MVP race?
Andrew Luck’s retirement not only sent shock-waves across the NFL landscape but the NFL MVP odds as well.
The NFL MVP award is typically quarterback-driven. And taking one big-name QB off the board immediately shifts the attention to the other star signal-callers.
Surprisingly, however, the removal of Luck has positively impacted the younger generation rather than the veterans.
2019 NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Position | Team | NFL MVP Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs | +500 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | Cleveland Browns | +900 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | Philadelphia Eagles | +1000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers | +1400 |
| Philip Rivers | QB | Los Angeles Chargers | +1500 |
*Odds taken 08/27/2019
Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes has been locked in as the favorite since the books opened. His number has been slowly fading back to the pack, however. After opening at +400, he’s now at +500 in 2019 NFL MVP odds.
The odds haven’t been kind to veteran QBs. Tom Brady’s odds have steadily fallen since opening, and so have Drew Brees’.
But Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield? They’ve been climbing, and Luck’s retirement only helps them.
Where Carson Wentz Stands in NFL MVP Race
Wentz was one of a number of MVP candidates that saw his season end prematurely in 2017.
A torn ACL took him out of the running after 13 games that year, handing the award to Tom Brady. His rapid rehab almost had him on track to start 2018 for the Eagles, but he fell just short. He instead debuted in Week 3.
Carson Wentz pocket QB?🤔
He is getting the ball out quicker. Less running?
“That part of my game is definitely not gone. Its still going to be there, but if I don’t need to, why would I get out of the pocket when the OLine is holding up and I can find guys to get the ball to?” pic.twitter.com/LXjmOe0O7S
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) August 21, 2019
Things were going great until a fractured vertebra ended Wentz’s comeback.
Carson Wentz: 2017 vs 2018
| 13 | Starts | 11 |
| 3,296 | Passing Yards | 3,074 |
| 60.2 | Completion % | 69.6 |
| 33/7 | TD/INT | 21/7 |
| 253.5 | Yards per Game | 279.5 |
| 101.9 | Quarterback Rating | 102.2 |
| 77.2 | QBR | 64.9 |
The two seasons are fairly similar in both length and statistics. If Wentz had played two more games last year, he’d likely have more yards and completions (440) than 2017.
Report coming out that Carson Wentz started feeling his back against the #Vikings. Told a teammate he couldn’t sit down because of his back pain.
That was his 3rd game back. He went on to throw 21 TDs, just 7 INTs and a QB rating of 102. That’s insane when you think about it.
— Ty (@HandsTeamTy) August 22, 2019
2019’s big question, however, is how Wentz will look with zero pre-season snaps. The Eagles have kept the oft-injured QB in bubble wrap to this point. So while he could be in line for big things, it may come with a slow start.
Will Baker Mayfield Win NFL MVP?
The Browns are the NFL’s darlings, and they have Baker Mayfield to thank for that.
After Mayfield’s standout performance when he took over last season, it made Cleveland a real destination. He’s what put them in the running for Gerald McCoy, and Mayfield’s swagger gave the Browns the pull to land Odell Beckham Jr.
All 27 of Baker Mayfield's NFL rookie record-setting touchdown passes.
You’re welcome.
— Everything Cleveland (@everythingcle_) August 23, 2019
And now, with Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, and (eventually) Kareem Hunt in the fold, Mayfield has weapons. And with weapons comes NFL MVP buzz.
Breaking Down Mayfield’s Rookie Season
| 2018 Games | Played/Started | Yards | Comp% | TD/INT | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | 2/1 | 496 | 59.38% | 2/2 | 81.2 |
| 5-8 | 4/4 | 975 | 57.86% | 6/4 | 77.9 |
| 9-12 | 4/4 | 1,168 | 71.76% | 10/4 | 111.8 |
| 13-16 | 4/4 | 1,086 | 65.15% | 9/4 | 100.8 |
If the Browns get the Baker from the second half, not only could they be playoff-bound, but he could be MVP.
Mayfield’s last eight weeks were his best. Average those out over a 16-game season and it equals 4,508 yards, 38 touchdowns, and a 68% completion percentage. That tops Brady’s 2017 NFL MVP season and Cam Newton’s passing numbers in 2015. It also comes very close to matching Matt Ryan in 2016.
.@bakermayfield's hands are ready for the season 😏 pic.twitter.com/67UyNqoyIY
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) August 26, 2019
If all goes well, Mayfield could make an MVP play this year.
Where Wentz and Mayfield Sit in NFL MVP Race
Given the choice between the two, Carson Wentz is the better buy.
He offers slightly better value (+1000 to +900) than Mayfield, but it goes beyond that.
Wentz has already proven his consistency, even if he is injury prone. Without Nick Foles insurance (sorry, Josh McCown), the Eagles will be driven to keep him upright and healthy.
Mayfield meanwhile, is a somewhat unknown commodity. Yes, Patrick Mahomes shocked the world as a sophomore, but there was no tape on him. The people expecting a (slight) slowdown from Mahomes should expect similar from Mayfield. Even with an All-Star cast of receivers.
https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1165274318495977472?s=20
Interested in a deeper dive? Try Russell Wilson at +3500. He’s no sure thing, but if he gets the Seahawks into the playoffs with those receivers? There wouldn’t be anyone more deserving in the league.
But between these two? We’re riding with Wentz.
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
