Patriots’ 2020 Super Bowl Odds Worsen to +1000 After Missing Out on Bye

• The Patriots’ odds of winning a second straight Super Bowl are +1000
• The Patriots missed a chance for a bye in the AFC playoffs after losing to the Dolphins
• In the second half of the regular season, New England was 4-4 following an 8-0 start

The New England Patriots’ Super Bowl odds have worsened to +1000 after missing out on getting a bye in the AFC playoffs.

Odds to Win Super Bowl 54

Odds taken Dec. 30

The odds doubled from +500 following the Patriots’ shocking 27-24 loss to the visiting Miami Dolphins on Sunday, December 29 in Foxborough. New England was a 17.5-point favorite.

While the Patriots and Chiefs both finished with 12-4 records, Kansas City got the No. 2 seed by virtue of a 23-16 road win over New England on December 8. The Baltimore Ravens (14-2) have the top seed.

The Patriots host the Tennessee Titans (9-7) at 8:15 pm EST on Sunday, January 4 in a Wild Card Round game.

Unfamiliar Situation

This marks the first time since 2009 that the Patriots have not had a bye. That year, the Ravens blasted the Patriots 33-14 in the Wild Card Round at Foxborough.

In fact, the Patriots are just 3-3 in the playoffs when they have not gotten a bye during the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. They also did not reach the Super Bowl in any of those seasons.

In 2005, the Patriots beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-3 in a Wild Card game then lost to the Denver Broncos 27-13 in the Divisional Round.

A year later, New England downed the New York Jets 37-16 in a Wild Card game and the San Diego Chargers 24-21 in a divisional game before falling 38-34 to the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game.

History Against Pats

History is not the Patriots’ friend in their attempt to defend their Super Bowl title.

No team has reached the Super Bowl without a first-round bye since the Ravens in 2012, who beat the San Francisco 49ers in a thriller to win it all. Furthermore, 18 of the last 25 teams to win the Super Bowl have been seeded first or second.

In the last 25 years, 39 of the 50 teams to play in the Super Bowl were either a No. 1 or a No. 2 seed. That breaks down to 13 No. 2 seeds, two No. 3 seeds, six No. 4 seeds, one No. 5 seed and two No. 6 seeds.

Favored Over Titans

The Patriots are 5.5-point favorites against the Titans despite going 4-4 in the second half of the regular season after opening the year with eight straight victories.

New England was also 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games after posting a 6-2 mark in their first eight games.

AFC East standings, weeks 9-17 of the 2019 season.

1. New York Jets (6-3)
2t. Buffalo Bills (5-4)
2t. Miami Dolphins (5-4)
4. New England Patriots (4-4)

— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) December 29, 2019

The Patriots and Titans did not play during the regular season, but Tennessee rolled to a 34-10 victory as 6.5-point underdogs in their last meeting on November 11, 2018. The Patriots had won the previous seven matchups, covering in six of them.

The Titans held the Patriots to 40 yards rushing on 19 attempts. Brady was just 21 of 41 for 254 yards and had a 70.1 passer rating.

Brady’s Struggles

Speaking of Brady, he might finally be showing signs of aging at 42. He could be in his last of his 20 seasons with the Patriots as his contract expires after the playoffs and there have been rumblings that both sides might want a split.

Tom Brady’s entrance for what could be his final regular-season game as a member of the Patriots pic.twitter.com/gSp4puaiYC

— Ryan Hannable (@RyanHannable) December 29, 2019

Brady’s 4,057 passing yards in the regular season were seventh in the NFL and his 24 touchdown passes ranked 13^th. However, he was 19^th with an 88.0 passer rating while completing just 60.8 percent of his passes.

An inconsistent corps of receivers has been part of Brady’s problem. However, he has had a passer rating below 100 in 10 of the last 11 games and completed 55-percent or less of his passes in six of the last seven weeks.

Still, it’s hard to bet against a quarterback with six Super Bowl rings and a team with a defense that led the league in points allowed (14.1 a game) and total yardage (275.9 a game).

Thus, there is value in betting the Patriots at +1000.

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