NFL Picks for Week 10: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions
By Matt McEwan in NFL Football
Published:
- Looking for some help in betting the remaining 13 games of Week 10 in the 2024-25 NFL season?
- My SBD formula and I offer moneyline picks for each game in Week 10
- See our Week 10 NFL picks below
We were treated to a thrilling start to Week 10 of the 2024-25 NFL season, and now get another 13 games across Sunday and Monday, including an early Sunday game in Munich. If you wanted some help in betting any of the remaining games of Week 10, or just wanted confirmation on a lean, I have shared my NFL picks below, alongside my SBD formula’s predictions.
The NFL picks you’ll find below are focused on the underdogs I am betting to win their respective games outright, as well as the dogs my formula predicts will win their games. I’m looking for a bounce back week after both my formula and I got roughed up last week.
Here’s who we’re betting in Week 10!
Week 10 NFL Picks
Expert NFL Moneyline Picks | Computer NFL Moneyline Picks |
---|---|
Buccaneers over 49ers (+245 at FanDuel) | — |
This is by far the shortest list of upsets my SBD formula and I have come up with in the last four years. I only have one underdog that I am betting to win their game outright in Week 10, and my SBD formula is predicting zero upsets this week.
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So if you were looking for picks for each game, you have gotten them. My formula believes favorites will win every game this week. However, my SBD formula does have very tight margins of victory for the following favorites:
- Commanders to win by 1.3 points
- Jets to win by 1 point
- Rams to win by 2.4 points
So, if you wanted to take any of the underdogs from those games (Steelers, Cardinals, and Dolphins), you can do so knowing my formula sees each one as essentially a coin toss. The New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams are both barely favored in their respective matchups, so there’s a chance we see those lines shift and we might have a predicted upset from my formula. Be sure you’re following me on Twitter/X for further breakdowns of my formula’s predictions, and an alert should we see anything change from above.
The moneyline odds for my Buccaneers pick above were the best odds available at the time of writing this. You’ll want to check our NFL odds page after reading this to go shop for the best moneyline available at that time.
If you wanted more than just moneyline NFL picks, check out Zach Reger’s Week 10 NFL picks against the spread. If you want some analysis on why I like the Bucs this week, keep reading below!
Buccaneers Over 49ers
Before I dive into exactly why I like the Buccaneers to upset the 49ers this week, I want to be clear that this is a value play for me. I don’t think the Bucs have a better than 50% chance to beat San Francisco this week, but I think they have a much better chance than the odds suggest.
Tampa Bay’s moneyline odds are +245 at FanDuel, which implies a 29% probability of them winning the game. I believe their true probability of winning this game is around 45%. Here’s why!
For starters, I really like this Tampa Bay offense. They rank fifth in both total yards and points scored. They’re fourth in average yards per rushing attempt and tenth in net yards per pass attempt. They can attack in a variety of ways and have shown a ton of resiliency in playing without Chris Godwin or Mike Evans in either of their last two games (basically three since they both left early against the Ravens).
After seeing them score 24 points against a very good Chiefs defense (in Kansas City), I’m confident this offense will be able to put up points against what I believe to be an average 49ers defense.
The second point I want to make is around the Bucs’ bad defense, which is 30th in total yards allowed and 28th in points allowed. I think they’re going to get bailed out this Sunday as they take on an offense in transition.
San Francisco is expected to be welcoming Christian McCaffrey back to the lineup after he missed the first nine weeks of the season. It has been a long time since he has played a football game, and I don’t expect him to jump right back into his workhorse role this Sunday. At the time of writing this, however, it sounds like Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are both truly questionable to play.
I believe the biggest thing the 49ers have been missing without CMC is his big-play potential, especially late in games. Their offense has lacked that killer instinct late in games to put teams away – see their loss to the Cardinals. But again, I’m not sure McCaffrey will be able to provide that right away. So, in a game where I expect the 49ers offense will have to score to keep up, I’m not overly confident they’ll be able to, in spite of seeing a bad defense in front of them.
An added bonus here is that this is a situation where a team from the Pacific Time Zone is traveling to the Eastern Time Zone and being forced to play in the early block on Sunday. Historically, west coast teams do not do well in this scenario, and we saw the 49ers lose to the Vikings in this same scenario in Week 2. Their upset at the hands of the Browns last season also happened in this situation.
Overall, this is a 4-4 San Francisco team, in a tough spot on the road, trying to work their best player back into the offense in his first football game since February. Give me the +245 odds on the Bucs!
- Pick: Buccaneers moneyline (+245 at FanDuel)
Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.