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NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages for Saints vs Buccaneers Monday Night Football

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Dec 5, 2022 · 11:25 AM PST

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans celebration
Nov 13, 2022; Munich, Germany, DEU; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) celebrates his touchdown with teammate wide receiver Mike Evans (13) against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter of an International Series game at Allianz Arena. Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

  • Tampa Bay is drawing 72% of the spread wagers in the Saints vs Buccaneers public betting splits ahead of Monday Night Football
  • The spread opened at Tampa Bay -6 but has been bet down to -3 throughout the week
  • Get a full breakdown of the Saints vs Buccaneers public betting splits below

It was a fantastic NFL Sunday for online sportsbooks in Week 13, and yet another miserable day for public bettors.

For the second straight week, all three of the most heavily bet teams to cover the spread failed to do so (Titans, Chiefs, Jets). Just one of the top-five most heavily backed teams wound up covering (Steelers), while the sixth most bet team takes the field on Monday Night Football.

That would be the Buccaneers (5-6, 3-3 home) who’ll host NFC South rival New Orleans (4-8, 1-4 away). The line for this contest opened up at Tampa Bay -6, but that number didn’t last long. Per the NFL public betting trends, the Bucs are down to a 3-point favorite. It was primarily sharp action on the Saints that sent the spread cratering, but at the new number bettors are buying back in on Tom Brady and Co.

Saints vs Buccaneers ATS Betting Splits

As of Monday afternoon, 72% of the spread wagers and handle are backing the Bucs. If you feel inclined to bet New Orleans shop around, as there still appear to be some online sportsbooks hanging Tampa Bay -3.5.

 

 

If you spend any time looking at trends this week, you can make a valid argument to fade both teams. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS on the road this season and just 4-8 against the spread overall.

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The Bucs on the other hand, have covered just once since Week 2 (against the Saints) and have been atrocious versus the number in primetime. They are 2-11 ATS under the lights since Brady arrived, including multiple failed cover attempts against the Saints.

However, there is reason to be optimistic about Tampa Bay and Brady in this spot. The Saints have had his number in the past thanks to a strong pass rush and a sound secondary. This season, New Orleans boasts neither. They rank 28th in pressure rate and 20th in coverage grade.

Tampa Bay throws at the sixth-highest rate above expectation in the league and Brady loves targeting the slot where Chris Godwin operates. Fire Godwin up in the Saints vs Buccaneers player props.

New Orleans vs Tampa Bay Total Betting Splits

When it comes to the total, the over/under action is currently split with both sides drawing 50% of the money. The number opened at 42.5 but has been bet down 1.5 points throughout the week.

NFL Top-5 Under Teams

Team Under Record Under % Total +/-
Denver Broncos 11-1 91.7% -11.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2 81.8% -7.9
Buffalo Bills 9-3 75.0% -4.0
Indianapolis Colts 9-4 69.2% -4.1
Washington Commanders 8-4-1 66.7% -3.1

Tampa Bay has seen 81.8% of its games in 2022 fall short of the total, by an average of over a touchdown per game. New Orleans is 6-6 to the under this season, although the majority of their recent outings have been low scoring. The under has hit in four of the Saints’ last five games, and the first meeting between these two teams fell short of the total as well.

Unders have been extremely common in divisional matchups this season, going 35-22-1 heading into Monday Night Football.

Saints vs Buccaneers Moneyline Betting Splits

As far as the moneyline market goes, it’s completely one-sided. The Buccaneers are drawing 81% of the bets and handle as -180 favorites. One of our experts is rolling with them in the Saints vs Buccaneers picks, in large part due to New Orleans’ porous offensive showings recently.

 

 

The Saints were blanked last week against the 49ers, and have been held below 14 points in three of their past four outings. Tampa Bay grades out 15 spots higher than New Orleans in overall DVOA and rates better than their opponent on both sides of the ball.

Andy Dalton enters play with a 12-25 record in his last 37 starts and is 0-12 in his past 12 primetime road games. Not even the fact that three of the Bucs’ top-five corners are likely going to sit per the Saints vs Buccaneers injury report can save the Red Rifle.

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