Sam Darnold Favored to Lead NFL in Interceptions Entering Week 17
- With one game left, Sam Darnold and Ben Roethlisberger hold a share of the lead for most interceptions in the NFL
- With three players only one INT behind, should you bet the longer odds on Josh Rosen, Andrew Luck, or Case Keenum?
- Or can longshot Jameis Winston have a bad enough Week 17 to cash this bet at +2000 odds?
Two players enter Week 17 of the NFL regular season with a tie for most interceptions at 15.
Favored at -115, can New York Jets’ rookie quarterback Sam Darnold hold onto the lead? Or is there value betting elsewhere?
Odds To Throw Most INTs In 2018 Regular Season
| Player | 2018 INTs | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 15 | -115 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 15 | -105 |
| Josh Rosen | 14 | +600 |
| Andrew Luck | 14 | +1100 |
| Case Keenum | 14 | +1200 |
| Jameis Winston | 13 | +2000 |
*Odds taken 12/27
Can The Field Make Up Ground On Sam and Ben?
Your longshot to “win” this prop is Winston of the Bucs.
Tampa will host Atlanta in Week 17 in a game with nothing on the line for either team. Back in Week 6 the teams put up a combined 63 points in a 34-29 Falcons win.
The Cowboys trolled Jameis Winston today by "Eating a W" in his face ?? pic.twitter.com/sXwuamXchV
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 23, 2018
Winston threw four TDs but also two INTs.
In what should be another wide-open game, he could easily replicate that performance, which would tie him with Darnold and Roethlisberger. The Falcons rank eighth in interceptions with 14 on the year.
Jameis seems to have his turnovers under control of late. He threw 11 picks in his first five games and only two in his past five. But this is still a player who’s only played in ten games, while starting only eight, and who ranks near the top for most INTs.
? NEW #Broncos podcast ?@KyleFredrickson and @ryanohalloran examine Case Keenum's first 15 games in Denver and analyze what college QBs the team may target in the draft: https://t.co/ZaALzgC5Bj
— Denver Post Sports (@DPostSports) December 27, 2018
Keenum has two INTs in each of the past two games and his two worst passer ratings of the season since October 1 to go with them. Keenum faces a Chargers team ranked 16th with 12 INTs.
With rookie running back Phillip Lindsay out this week due to injury, that should mean more throws for Keenum. Bad for Broncos fans. Good news for Keenum interception bettors.
Opponent Interceptions & Rank
| Player | Week 17 Opponent | Total INTs & League Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | New England | 18 – Tied 3rd |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Cincinnati | 11 – Tied 21st |
| Josh Rosen | LA Rams | 15 – Tied 6th |
| Andrew Luck | Tennessee | 10 – 23rd |
| Case Keenum | LA Chargers | 12 – Tied 16th |
| Jameis Winston | Atlanta | 14 – Tied 8th |
Despite only starting 12 games this year Cards rookie Josh Rosen has racked up the picks, averaging a little over one per game. On the road in LA, he’ll face a tough challenge against a Rams defense ranked sixth in INTs this year.
Andrew Luck should be filled with confidence having never lost to the Titans while owning a 10-0 record.
When the Colts face the Titans on Sunday night, Indy QB Andrew Luck should be filled with confidence, having never lost to the Titans while owning a 10-0 record.
The Titans rank 23rd in interceptions and Luck has only thrown multiple INTs once since October 14. He threw none against the Titans earlier this year.
#Colts QB Andrew Luck is a perfect 10-0 vs the Titans in his career
Since 1970, only HOF QB John Elway has 10 wins and 0 losses vs a single opponent
Will Luck get the win and stand alone on Sunday? pic.twitter.com/lUHWfeiofM
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 26, 2018
Will A Favorite Win?
Darnold and the Jets head into Foxborough to face the Patriots in a game the Pats need to ensure a first-round playoff bye. Of all the betting options, Darnold will face the toughest task against a Patriots defense ranked third in interceptions with 18.
New England has forced two INTs in three of their past four games.
#Jets QB Sam Darnold has thrown 86 consecutive passes without an interception. That's nine quarters. His last interception was in the third quarter at Buffalo.
— Andy Vasquez (@andy_vasquez) December 23, 2018
Earlier this season Josh McCown got the call against New England and threw a single INT. Darnold may be leading the league, but he has avoided throwing a pick in each of the past two weeks. Many of his interceptions can also be attributed to a game where he threw four and another when he threw three.
If we look to Roethlisberger, he’ll need to be at his best to win and hopefully get the Steelers into the playoffs. Ben has avoided throwing a pick in two of the past three games. He’ll also face a Bengals secondary which only ranks 21st in INTs with 11.
Ben Roethlisberger has set a single-season franchise record for the most touchdown passes with 33 in 2018. #BensDay pic.twitter.com/UsMSU75d5O
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) December 26, 2018
Who’s the Best Bet?
Sam Darnold has been favored to finish with the most INTs for some time now. With an average interception rate of 1.25 per game, he doesn’t look to relinquish that lead on the road to a tough Patriots defense.
However, for a little more value, Rosen at +600 or a struggling Keenum at +1200 could be worth a longshot bet.
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
