Bill O’Brien New Favorite to be First Coach Fired After Texans Slow Start

• The Houston Texans are one of seven teams off to an 0-2 start in the NFL
• Bill O’Brien suddenly finds himself with the shortest odds to be the first head coach fired
• Will O’Brien be the first head coach to get axed? Or is there better value elsewhere?

The start to the 2018 NFL season hasn’t been what Bill O’Brien and the Houston Texans hoped it would be.

With a returning sophomore quarterback, a healthy JJ Watt, and a dangerous defense, Houston wanted to prove they were Super Bowl 53 contenders right away.

But instead of a fast start, they’re 0-2. And now O’Brien finds himself atop a dubious list.

Odds to be First NFL Coach Fired in 2018

*See the odds for all coaches by following the link in the table

While O’Brien sits at the top of the list now, the top spots have been a revolving door since the odds opened.

After an ugly Week 1 loss to the Ravens, Buffalo’s Sean McDermott sat at +400. The only coach ahead of him? Cleveland’s Hue Jackson (+250).

Before the season started, Tampa Bay’s Dirk Koetter actually shared the top spot with Jackson (+400). But then the unimaginable happened and Fitzmagic took the world by storm.

No one’s complaining because we got this photo:

Ryan Fitzpatrick is done with your Harvard stereotypes. pic.twitter.com/arCAyBZKi3

— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) September 16, 2018

And of course, our boy Hue. He can’t escape these rankings. Then again neither could you if you still had a job with a team you had gone 1-32-1 with in three seasons.

Has slow start doomed Bill O’Brien and the Texans?

The Texans opened the season in New England against the Patriots. They lost that game, and it wasn’t as close as the final score made it seem.

After that they turned their attention within the division to the Titans.

A rookie head coach? No Marcus Mariota? BLAINE GABBERT AT QB?  They’re getting back in the win column…right?

Wrong.

How bad can it get for Bill O'Brien and his team? Titans up 14-0 after Gabbert's 18-yard TD pass to Taywan Taylor. Wretched defense to go with rotten offense.

— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) September 16, 2018

Despite Gabbert throwing for just 117 yards, and Deshaun Watson chucking up 310, Houston lost.

They’re behind the 2-0 Jaguars, as well as the Titans and Colts who are both 1-1 in the AFC South. And now O’Brien is feeling the heat.

Does Bill O’Brien deserve to be the “favorite”?

Despite the ineptitude surrounding him in the odds, O’Brien sits atop the list.

Some think it’s more than fair. But O’Brien seems to have a long leash in Houston.

He also has some success to fall back on.

Granted NFL stands for ‘Not for Long’, but last year he was coming off of back-to-back playoff appearances.

His starting quarterbacks in those games? Brian Hoyer and Brock Osweiler.

Texans 2018 Stats

Then the football Gods gave him a real quarterback! While the results were uneven, Deshaun Watson guided the Texans to a 3-4 record before his knee injury.

They would win one game after Watson tore his ACL. The Jaguars won the division with 10 wins, and nine wins would’ve gotten them a wild card spot.

Needless to say, he isn’t in the same situation a slow-starting favorite would be, coming off a 4-12 year.

Is O’Brien a good bet to be first coach fired?

Now Watson is trying to get back up to NFL speed. So is JJ Watt. And if the Texans want their coach to stick around, they better start winning games.

The good news is, they should.

“It is a long season. We have to figure it out, we are not playing very well especially offensively.” Bill O’Brien. #Texans

— patrick (@PatDStat) September 16, 2018

O’Brien mismanaged things against the Titans. Regardless, they could be 1-1 right now instead of 0-2. Offensively, Watson looked better than he did against the Patriots, and he also had Will Fuller back (113 yards, 1 TD vs Titans).

https://twitter.com/LandryLocker/status/1041392725722116096

The Texans schedule is also pretty favorable.

Over their next four games, they face teams that are either 1-1 or 0-2. At worst they get a win out of that stretch.

They should be able to get back to .500, though, with the Cowboys providing the stiffest test.

Bill O'Brien says eliminating mistakes and penalties among the biggest things to improve: "It starts with me." #Texans

— Deepi Sidhu (@DeepSlant) September 17, 2018

Now you’re talking about a 3-3 team with 10 games to go. They could be in line for a wild card spot. Being in that conversation alone should buy Bill O’Brien another year.

If not O’Brien, who could be the first to lose their job?

Of the top ten, there are only two real choices: Hue Jackson and Jay Gruden.

Despite their teams’ struggles, Bowles and McDermott look like they’re going to lead their squads through rebuilds. Patricia, Shurmur, and Wilks are all in their first year and would be seen as massive missteps if they were canned.

https://twitter.com/LandryLocker/status/1041423078453116929

Joseph’s team is off to a 2-0 start, and so long as Ryan Fitzpatrick is throttling teams, Koetter’s job is safe.

Mike Tomlin (+1600) and Pete Carroll (+2000) are the two most interesting names among the odds. Despite the drama their two clubs are going through, it’s likely both would be allowed to see their seasons out.

Sorry Hue, but all this O’Brien talk is just a smokescreen.

You’re still number one.