Titans Super Bowl Odds Drop to +2500 With Derrick Henry Potentially Out for the Season; AFC South Odds Also Fade
- Titans running back Derrick Henry reportedly has a fractured foot that could keep him out most of the year
- The Titans odds to win the Super Bowl have dropped from +1400 to +2500
- The latest Super Bowl odds and analysis of the Titans can be found below
The Tennessee Titans’ odds of winning the first Super Bowl title in franchise history have dropped significantly following the news that star running Derrick Henry might need season-ending foot surgery.
Those odds are now +2500, making the Titans just the ninth choice to win it all despite a 6-2 record and three-game lead over the Indianapolis Colts (3-5) in the AFC South. The Titans were +1400 choices prior to beating the Colts 34-31 in overtime on Sunday in Indianapolis.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Monday morning that the Titans believe Henry sustained a Jones fracture.
2021-22 Super Bowl Championship Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +500 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +550 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +750 |
| Green Bay Packers | +950 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1000 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +1100 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1300 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2500 |
| Tennessee Titans | +2500 |
Odds as of November 1st at FanDuel.
Meanwhile, the Titans remain heavy favorites to win the AFC South at -1500. Nevertheless, that number dropped from -3500 once news of Henry’s injury broke.
2021-22 AFC South Championship Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | -1500 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +950 |
| Houston Texans | +50000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +50000 |
Henry Was an MVP Candidate
Henry had the best NFL MVP odds of any non-quarterback prior to Monday’s bombshell at +2500. He was behind eight QBs on the board.
Henry led the league in rushing each of the past two seasons, including amassing 2,027 yards in 2020. He has again been far and away the top rusher this year despite having a subpar performance Sunday.
DERRICK HENRY IS UNSTOPPABLE pic.twitter.com/JTwsq49HSF
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 19, 2021
Indianapolis held Henry to 68 yards on 28 carries, an average of 2.4 yards an attempt. However, in hindsight, the foot injury likely limited Henry’s effectiveness.
Henry has amassed an NFL-best 937 yards in eight games this season. By comparison, the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor is second with 649 yards – 286 fewer than Henry, who also leads the league with 219 rushing attempts and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
Who Would Replace Henry?
The drop off at tailback after Henry is steep on the Titans’ depth chart. They have Jeremy McNichols, Khari Blasingame and Dontrell Hilliard.
McNichols has rushed for 38 yards on seven carries this season while Blasingame and Hilliard have yet to notch an attempt. A knee injury has sidelined Darrynton Evans for the season, but he had just two rushes for 7 yards.
😮
Jeremy McNichols 🛫🌀#NEvsTEN
(via @NFL)
— PFF (@PFF) August 18, 2019
The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday. General manager Jon Robinson will need to act quickly if he is to find an RB1, though whoever he might deal for obviously won’t be in Henry’s class.
One running back believed to be on the market is the Colts’ Marlon Mack, whose playing time has been drastically reduced. Two years removed from a 1,091-yard season, Mack has just 28 carries for 101 yards in 2021 and played only one snap Sunday.
Load Falls on Tannehill
The Titans are sixth in the NFL in scoring at 28.4 points a game. They have scored 33 points in four of their eight games and have veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill running the offense.
It stands to reason Tannehill will be asked to shoulder much more of the offensive load if Henry is out. While the Titans are fourth in the league with 147.6 rushing yards a game, they are just 21st in passing with an average of 229.5 yards.
Tannehill has been just OK this season, at least on the surface, completing 65.6% of his passes for 2,002 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Ryan Tannehill threw an INT then a Touchdown on back to back plays pic.twitter.com/r3NFnJV8cI
— alex (@highlghtheaven) October 31, 2021
His 90.2 passer rating is the lowest of his three seasons as the Titans’ starter and well below the 117.1 mark he posted in 2019, which was then the NFL single-season record.
Yet Pro Football Focus grades Tannehill as the league’s third-best quarterback behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Tom Brady and Seattle Seahawks’ Russell Wilson.
The Titans traded with the Atlanta Falcons in the offseason for wide receiver Julio Jones believing he would be the playmaker in the passing game they sorely needed. However, Jones has played in just five games because of injury and has 17 receptions for 301 yards and no touchdowns.
Fellow wideout A.J. Brown has 35 receptions for 509 yards and three scores.
Pregame work ✈️ #KCvsTEN @1kalwaysopen_ x @juliojones_11 pic.twitter.com/v8hvtwpSoU
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 24, 2021
Can Titans Still Win It All?
The Titans have a big cushion in the AFC South race and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Colts after beating them in both meetings this season. Thus, Tennessee should win its second straight division title and make a third consecutive playoff appearance.
However, it is difficult to envision the Titans making a Super Bowl run without Henry. While the Titans have made back-to-back postseason trips since acquiring Tannehill from the Miami Dolphins, he isn’t a quarterback who can carry a team to a championship.
Thus, even with the odds dropping to +2500, it is difficult to see value in betting the Titans to win it all.
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
