Updated Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Picks & Line Movement (AFC Title Game)

• The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meet in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday
• The Chiefs have won eight straight playoff games and three straight postseason games over Buffalo in the last five years
• See the updated Bills vs Chiefs odds, line movement, and expert picks

Patrick Mahomes and the back-to-back Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs (16-2, 9-0 home, 8-10 ATS) put their eight-game playoff win streak on the line against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (15-4, 5-4 away, 12-7 ATS) in the 2025 AFC Championship Game this Sunday, January 26, at 6:30 pm ET at Arrowhead Stadium. The line opened as a virtual pick’em but, as the week has progressed, the betting action has moved the Bills vs Chiefs odds in the home team’s favor.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds (AFC Title Game)

The Bills beat the Chiefs, 30-21, at home in the regular season. But it was the Chiefs triumphing, 27-24, in Buffalo in last year’s Divisional Round. That marked the third time in the last five years that the Chiefs had eliminated the Bills from the playoffs. The previous two games (38-24 in Jan. 2021 and 34-28 OT in Jan. 2022) both took place at Arrowhead Stadium.

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The Chiefs head into the conference championships as the +220 second-favorite to the Philadelphia Eagles in the latest Super Bowl odds. The Bills aren’t far behind in third at +260 to win their first Lombardi Trophy. (See the Commanders vs Eagles Odds, Picks & Line Movement for NFC Championship.)

BUF Bills vs KC Chiefs Line Movement

As mentioned, the Bills vs Chiefs odds opened as a veritable pick’em on the moneyline, with Kansas City a -115 favorite and Buffalo a miniscule -105 underdog. The spread opened at KC -1.5 (-105) and BUF +1.5 (-115).

The early action has predominantly been on the defending champs though. And as the week has progressed, the Kansas City moneyline has moved to -130 while the Buffalo moneyline has grown +110.

The spread, meanwhile, has grown to Chiefs -2.0. It was briefly -2.5 at FanDuel but, as of Thursday morning, is no bigger than two.

The biggest Bills vs Chiefs odds movement has come on the game total. After opening at 49.5, the over/under has been bet all the way down to 47.5 with -110 odds both ways.

Even with the total lowered by two full points, the NFL public betting splits still show the under getting the vast majority of betting action. As of 8:18 pm ET on Thursday, 81% of game-total handle and 79% of game-total wagers were on the under. The public is almost evenly split on the moneyline so far with 58% of handle on the Bills and 42% on the Chiefs.

Bills vs Chiefs Expert Picks

As the line keeps growing, I continue to lean more and more to the Bills plus the points. In my early conference championship lines to target, I bet an alternate spread of Buffalo +3.5 (-158). A few days later, even though the spread has moved towards the Chief, the odds on Buffalo +3.5 have actually gotten shorter. The best price bettors can get on that line as of Thursday morning is -161 at FanDuel.

That’s not such a big shift that I am backing off of my handicap, though.

As much confidence as I have in Patrick Mahomes at home in the playoffs (13-2 straight-up in his career), I have very little confidence the Chiefs can cover anything more than a field goal against a team as good as the Bills. The Bills/Chiefs weather forecast is calling for below-freezing temperatures and a 40% chance of (light) snow. If KC was playing a warm-weather team like Miami, the cold would play to the Chiefs advantage.

But, outside of maybe the run-happy Eagles, it’s difficult to find a team better built for the cold than the Bills.

BUF vs KC pick: Bills +3.5 (-161)