NFL Upset Picks for Wild Card Weekend – Underdogs Showing Value
- See which Wild Card teams we think can cash your NFL underdog tickets this weekend
- Can CJ Stroud get his first playoff win in his rookie season versus Joe Flacco and the Browns?
- Check out our favorite Wild Card Playoffs upset picks here
Will CJ Stroud reverse a trend that sees rookie quarterbacks struggling in their first playoff game? Who wins a game between two quarterbacks who used to play for the opposing team? And will the Eagles continue to struggle when they travel to Tampa Bay on MNF? See why we like the Texans, Rams and Bucs to pull NFL upsets on Wild Card Weekend.
Wild Card Playoffs Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns vs Texans | CLV -2.5 | HOU +125 | HOU | 1 unit |
| Rams vs Lions | DET -3 | LAR +140 | LAR | 1 unit |
| Eagles vs Buccaneers | PHI -3 | TB +135 | TB | 1 unit |
Our Wild Card NFL upset picks will include plays on the Texans (+125), Rams (+140) and Buccaneers (+135). Odds from ESPN Sportsbook. Right now you can get $150 in bonus bets at ESPN BET by using promo code ‘DIME’ at sign-up and making a $10 bet on the NFL this weekend! Click the banner below to get started with one of the top NFL betting apps!
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Wild Card NFL Upset Picks
In this week’s underdog predictions I’m looking for value in two home underdogs and backing Stafford to return to his old stomping grounds in Detroit and pull the rug out from under the Lions.
NFL Upset Picks 1: Texans Over Browns
The Browns had an easy go of it versus the Texans in Week 16 winning 36-22. But it came with Stroud injured and Davis Mills and Case Keenum splitting time in the backup role. Mills did throw two touchdown passes but those came late in the fourth quarter with the score 36-7.
The Browns lost 31-14 last week but it came with Flacco and others resting in a meaningless game. Otherwise, they had won four straight while scoring 30+ points three times.
This game features the likely winner in the OROY odds (Stroud) and a contender in the Comeback Player of the Year odds (Flacco).
Houston got an early taste of the playoffs last week as they were in a “win or go home” type of matchup with the Colts where they won 23-19 in Indy. They were 10-7 on the year but look at their last ten games and they were 7-3. One of those losses came in bad weather in New York and another was the Browns’ game minus Stroud.
Cleveland is only 3-5 on the road while Houston is is 6-3 at home. Cleveland played one fewer road game than home game this season but still allowed 112 more points when playing on the road than when playing at home.
The Texans also own a massive advantage in the turnover department. Houston has turned the ball over a league-best 14 times, while Cleveland has given it away a league-worst 37 times. Overall the Texans have a +10 turnover differential (tied for fifth best), while the Browns are -9 (tied- 26th).
NFL Upset Picks: Texans (+125)
The emotions sink in for CJ Stroud as he officially clinches a playoff spot for Houston in his rookie season.
The Texans have themselves a special one 🔥 pic.twitter.com/1rpIOADodP
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 7, 2024
NFL Upset Picks 2: Rams Over Lions
This could be one of the most exciting games of the weekend between the #5 ranked scoring offense Detroit and #8 Los Angeles. Neither are great defensive teams either with LA ranking only slightly better at 19th in PPG allowed and Detroit 23rd.
Both teams enter the Wild Card Playoffs in great form. Detroit was 12-5 and won their division for the first time since 1993. The last time they won a playoff game was 1992. The Lions are 6-2 at home, and have won 3/4 and 4/6 recent games. One of those losses came from the two-point conversion debacle versus the Cowboys in Week 17 losing 20-19.
Last week, with little on the line, Dan Campbell played all of his starters and won 30-20 at home to the Vikings. It sent them into the playoffs on a high, but it still saw backup Nick Mullens throw for 396 yards and came at the cost of TE Sam LaPorta and punt returner Kalif Raymond suffering knee injuries.
Detroit still has plenty of offensive weapons but being short-handed versus the Rams who have won four straight and seven of eight is not a good place to be. The Rams’ one loss came in overtime in Baltimore during that time, so no shame there. The Rams are loaded on offense with Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and come in with several starters fresh having been rested last week. With underdog odds in the football betting line, the Rams have great value as a Wild Cup upset pick.
NFL Upset Picks: Rams (+140)
Rams QB Matthew Stafford on returning to Detroit: "I’m excited to go play anybody, anywhere in the playoffs at this point."https://t.co/D0vhLxPOGC pic.twitter.com/47B2p1DCH4
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) January 11, 2024
NFL Upset Picks 3: Buccaneers Over Eagles
From what may be the most exciting game, to what may be one of the uglier ones.
The Bucs come in off of a win and wrapping up the NFC South title, but they won 9-0 in Carolina versus the league’s worst team in doing so last week. Tampa Bay mustered up just 228 yards of offense and three field goals, while Baker Mayfield was 20-32 with 137 yards passing. Mayfield is banged up with rib, shoulder and ankle injuries but the Bucs still have the confidence in knowing they’ve won four of their past five games.
The Eagles have been in freefall for weeks and have just one single win in their past six games. That came against the 6-11 Giants and only by a 33-25 score. They’ve also lost to the Giants 27-10 in Week 18 and the Cardinals 35-31 in Week 17. They’re 0-3 SU in their past three road games and have scored only 13, 17 and 10 points in those games.
Philly has the benefit of not playing until Monday which could give their walking wounded some time to recover but the list is long. Each of Jalen Hurts, D’Andre Swift, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Cam Jurgens, Reed Blankenship and Darius Slay are carrying injury designations among their starters in the Eagles vs Bucs injury reports. Meanwhile, rookie safety Sydney Brown suffered a torn ACL last week.
Nothing would surprise me in this game so Bucs at home at plus-money looks like the value for your NFL underdog picks.
NFL Upset Picks: Bucs (+135)
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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
