Week 15 NFL Props: New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- The Patriots take on the Steelers in a key AFC matchup this Sunday (Dec. 16).
- Both are coming off of crushing last-second losses, as Pittsburgh fights to keep their playoff lives alive
- Check out three Week 15 NFL props worth betting.
As we get set for Week 15 of the NFL season, we’re facing a rare occurrence.
While they prepare for their seemingly annual matchup, both the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5-1, 3-3 home) and New England Patriots (9-4, 3-4 away) are coming off of crushing losses.
New England needs to win to clinch the AFC East and quiet the questions in an atypical season.
Pittsburgh? They simply need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They’d be in the field if the season ended today, but it doesn’t, and the Steelers’ odds to make the playoffs are not as good as you may expect.
With Ben Roethlisberger banged up and the Ravens closing in, let’s find the best props to bet in this must-win game.
Prop #1: JuJu Records More Receiving Yards than Antonio Brown
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster records more receiving yards than Antonio Brown | +100 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster is fourth in the league with 1,234 receiving yards. Antonio Brown is close behind with 1,063. They are one of three pairs of teammates with 1,000-plus yards each.
So who has the bigger day on Sunday?
Our gut tells us Brown, but it’s been a pretty even split over the last five.
| 90 | Week 10 vs CAR | 96 |
| 104 | Week 11 @ JAX | 117 |
| 189 | Week 12 @ DEN | 67 |
| 49 | Week 13 vs LAC | 154 |
| 130 | Week 14 @ OAK | 35 |
The last time the Pats faced a dynamic receiving duo was Week 13 against Minnesota’s Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs.
| Wide Receiver | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 10 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
The Pats shut down number one Adam Thielen and let Stefon Diggs roam a bit.
I expect Brown to get the double-team treatment this time around and Smith-Schuster to see more looks.
The Pick: JuJu Smith Schuster outgains Antonio Brown (+100)
Prop #2: Josh Gordon Records at Least 5 Receptions and 81 Yards
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Gordon has 5+ receptions | +129 |
| Josh Gordon has 81+ receiving yards | -115 |
Can Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman thrive at the same time? Probably.
As odd as it sounds, the Raiders’ Seth Roberts and Jordy Nelson may be the best comparable to the Edelman/Gordon combo. Seth Roberts (five receptions, 76 yards) and Jordy Nelson (six receptions, 48 yards) made their presences felt last week against the Pittsburgh defense.
Josh Gordon’s production since Week 9
| Week | Targets | Receptions | Yards | AVG per Catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 9 | 9 | 5 | 130 | 26.0 |
| Week 10 | 12 | 4 | 80 | 20.3 |
| Week 12 | 5 | 5 | 70 | 14.0 |
| Week 13 | 3 | 3 | 58 | 19.3 |
| Week 14 | 8 | 5 | 96 | 19.2 |
Other than that, the Steelers haven’t really matched up with two quality receivers lately. (The Chargers have about 12.)
Gordon has been a consistent threat in the Patriots offense. And Pittsburgh’s corners? Mike Hilton grades out to a 77.1 at PFF, but Joe Haden has just one grade above 60 in his last four games. Coty Sensabaugh has given up eight receptions on his last nine targets.
Since he first set foot on the field for the #Patriots in week 4, Josh Gordon is #1 in the league in yards per catch. pic.twitter.com/ghiZr4adUV
— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) December 13, 2018
Expect Gordon to have a big impact.
The Pick: Gordon has 5+ receptions (+129) and at least 81 yards (-115)
Prop #3: Brady to Throw for More Yards Than Roethlisberger
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tom Brady has more passing yards than Ben Roethlisberger | +122 |
Whenever these two teams meet up, it’s all about the QBs.
In 13 games against each other, Ben Roethlisberger has actually outdone Tom Brady in most of the bulk numbers.
But this week, Brady will come out on top in the stats and the scoreboard.
Tom Brady has faced the Steelers four times in the last three seasons (including postseason):
298 ypg, 10 TD, 1 INT, 72.6 comp pct, 8.83 ypa, 121.0 rating, 4-0 record
— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) December 13, 2018
The first reason to ride Brady is that the Patriots have the weapons to take advantage of the Steelers in the passing game. They pose challenges at receiver and tight end, and James White is a matchup nightmare.
The second? Big Ben’s injury.
Ben Roethlisberger said rib injuries are "not fun to deal with at times" and can keep you up at night but "it is what it is, you just go play football. Everyone is banged up. Not just me.” Roethlisberger expected to sit Wednesday's practice, which is customary for him.
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) December 12, 2018
Yes, he came back and led a heroic near-comeback in Week 14, and he was a full participant in practice on Thursday and Friday. But outside of one incompletion to JuJu, Roethlisberger didn’t push it deep in his final drive on Sunday.
If Ben is hampered by his ribs at all, he’ll have a tough time catching Brady.
The Pick: Brady throws for more yards than Roethlisberger (+122)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
