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NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Jan 8, 2024 · 8:24 AM PST

In the NFL Wild Card Weekend picks ATS, Cleveland QB Joe Flacco is 5-0 in Wild Card games.
Jan 7, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) throws a pass during warmups before the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
  • Looking at the NFL Wild Card Weekend picks against the spread, home teams are favored in four of six games
  • Both South Division winners – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) and Houston Texans (AFC) – are set as home underdogs
  • Each of the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills are given more than a touchdown as the home chalk in their games

The Wild Card Weekend NFL picks against the spread are paying homage to the NFL’s hottest team and the league’s best home outfit.

Winning their fourth successive AFC East crown, the Buffalo Bills climbed to the title with five straight wins after dropping to 6-6 on the season. The Bills are set as 9.5-point home favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers in their AFC Wild Card Weekend game.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were winners at home over the Washington Commanders to close out regular-season play. Dallas hasn’t lost at home all season long. In fact, the Cowboys are 16-0 straight up in their last 16 home contests.

At home to open the NFL postseason, Dallas is established as a 7.5-point pick over the Green Bay Packers.

Now, let’s check out all the best early bets in the Wild Card Playoffs ATS picks.

Wild Card Weekend NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans CLE-2 CLE 1
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys DAL-7.5 GB 1
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers PHI-2.5 TB 1

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Browns, Packers, and Buccaneers.

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NFL ATS Picks 1: Houston Has A Problem

Yes, Leonard Fournette is in Buffalo, but forget about Playoff Lenny. Let’s discuss Playoff Joe. Cleveland QB Joe Flacco is 10-5 in the NFL playoffs. He’s 5-0 in the Wild Card Round.

As for Houston’s CJ Stroud, the betting choice in the NFL OROY odds is seeking to defy the NFL playoff odds. Rookie QBs are 2-6 in their last eight NFL playoff starts. No rookie QB has ever won more than two games in a playoff year. The first to do so? Flacco, with the 2008 Baltimore Ravens.

NFL ATS Picks: Cleveland Browns -2 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Picks 2: Cowboys Won’t Cover

The only time this season that the Green Bay Packers were underdogs by more than a touchdown, they won outright on Thanksgiving at Detroit. Dallas only beat the Lions at home by a point just two weeks ago.

The Cowboys are 1-2 ATS in their last three home games. This Wild Card Playoff spread opened at Dallas -7 and grew larger. Take the Packers to cover.

NFL ATS Picks: Green Bay Packers +7.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Picks 3: Baker Does In Eagles

No NFL team that’s still playing this season is in a deeper free fall than the Eagles. Last season’s NFC champions have dropped five of six SU and are 0-6 ATS over their last six games. They’ve gone 0-4 ATS as the chalk through the last four games of the regular season.

Meanwhile, behind QB Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers are 5-1 SU in their last six games and 4-1 ATS over the past five. Tampa Bay is 11-6 ATS this season. Philadelphia beat Tampa Bay 25-11 but that was in Week 3, which seems a long time ago for the Eagles.

NFL ATS Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-110), 1 unit

  • NFL ATS record: 18-32-4

Wild Card Weekend NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks

  • Bills (-9.5) vs Steelers: Buffalo has won five in a row. Pittsburgh has won three in a row. The Bills whipped the Steelers 38-3 at home last season. As well, it sounds like the Steelers will be without All-Pro sack machine TJ Watt (MCL injury).
  • Rams (+3.5) vs Lions: As they seek to win their first NFL playoff game since 1993, the Lions will be thwarted by the guy they traded away, Rams QB Matthew Stafford.
  • Chiefs (-3.5) vs Dolphins: It certainly hasn’t been a vintage season for the Chiefs, but there’s no bigger fraud in the NFL postseason than the Dolphins. Miami is 1-5 SU and ATS against fellow playoff clubs this season. That includes a 21-14 loss versus Kansas City

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