Game 3 Leafs vs Lightning Odds, Prediction and Same-Game Parlay

• Game 3 of the first round between the Maple Leafs and Lightning goes down on Saturday, April 22nd
• With Tampa hosting the first game of the series, the Maple Leafs are still favorites at -125
• Find the rest of the Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds below, plus our best bet and prediction

Talk about responding in a big way. After getting embarrassed 7-3 in the series opener, the Maple Leafs thrashed the undermanned Lightning 7-2 in Game 2 to square things up as this series shifts to Tampa. Game 3 takes place on Saturday, April 22nd from Amalie Arena with the faceoff scheduled for 7:00 pm ET in Florida.

Viewers can watch this one on TBS, CBC or Sportsnet. A makeshift Tampa blueline really struggled under the Leafs relentless offensive pressure, so we’ll see what Jon Cooper has in store to keep this contest closer at home.

You can see the Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 3 odds below. We’ll breakdown this contest before offering up our best bet and pick.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 Odds

With huge questions marks surrounding their defense, the Lightning are -105 home underdogs against the Leafs for this one. The over/under total is set at 6.5 goals, a mark these teams have exceeded easily in their first two games.

As slight -125 chalk, Toronto has an implied win probability of 55.56% to take the series lead on the road while Tampa has a 51.22% probability to go ahead in the best-of-7.

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Odds as of April 21st at Caesars Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs Take Advantage of Depleted Tampa Defense

Hockey players are amongst the toughest in sports. During the playoffs, guys play through torn ligaments, fractured bones, punctured lungs and the list goes on and on.

With an already shorthanded defense corps, Tampa’s top rearguard, Victor Hedman, couldn’t fight through his undisclosed injury to suit up for Game 2. This leads me to believe that even if he does get back into action for Game 3, he will be nowhere near 100%, which is a massive loss for Tampa.

Leafs with a dominant Game 2 win to even a series which for the Lightning hinges much on Victor Hedman’s health. My latest:

via @TheAthletic https://t.co/HOsLUMO9d7

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) April 21, 2023

In Darren Raddysh and Nick Perbix, the Lightning have two regular blueliners with under 100 games of NHL experience. Now forced to bring in Haydn Fleury and Zach Bogosian from the press box due to injuries, and you’ve really got issues against a lethal Leafs’ offense.

Toronto outshot Tampa 37-22 in a game where the Lightning just seemed overmatched from the jump. If Hedman and fellow injured defenseman Erik Cernak can’t return to the lineup soon, it seems highly unlikely Tampa will be able to advance in the NHL Playoff Bracket.

History Suggests Bounce Back From Vasilevskiy

Past playoff performances have put Andrei Vasilevkiy at the top of the list when debating the best goalies in the NHL. He’s a Conn Smythe trophy winner and has led his team to three straight finals. After allowing a season-high seven goals to the Leafs in Game 2, Cooper is counting on his netminder to bounce back.

Vasilevskiy 2022 Playoff Stats vs TOR After a Loss

Since the start of the 2020 playoffs, the number one netminder for the Bolts has a 20-2 record following a loss.
Tampa won every game after a Leafs victory in last year’s first-round series, but it’s not like Vasilevskiy really stole any of the games.

In fact, in nine playoff games over the last two years, Toronto has averaged 3.78 goals per game against the Lightning. One Toronto player in particular seems to have a knack for putting the puck in against the Russian as William Nylander now has 13 career goals against Vasilevskiy, his best output against any single goaltender.

WILLIAM NYLANDER 🚨

TOP CHEESE! WHAT A SHOT! pic.twitter.com/nTXoLIQCt3

— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 20, 2023

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction

Minus a couple monsters on D, it was a bit surprising the Maple Leafs weren’t made even bigger favorites in the NHL odds for Game 3, despite being on the road.

Yes, teams have to play through injuries, but defense has been an area of concern for Tampa all year after losing Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta in the off-season. It’s difficult to see them standing a chance against one of the favorites in the Stanley Cup odds with Hedman and Cernak out or playing through serious issues.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Same-Game Parlay Picks

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We do think this game will be played a bit tighter than the first two. The teams combined for 21 power plays in the first two matchups and as a series gets stretched out, the referees are usually more hesitant to call infractions.

Regardless, our money bet and best prediction for this one is to hang with the Maple Leafs on the moneyline. At some point, it becomes a war of attrition and Tampa’s blueline is much too inferior to handle this high-octane Maple Leafs squad.

Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline (-125)