Kings vs Oilers Game 6 Prediction, Expert Pick & Best Odds
By Chris Amberley in NHL Hockey
Published:
- The Oilers are -175 moneyline favorites over the Kings in Game 6 of their first-round series tonight
- LA has generated 38 fewer high-danger scoring chances than Edmonton this series
- See my Kings vs Oilers Game 6 prediction and expert pick below, plus the best odds
After two games in Hollywood, it was looking like a short playoff stint for the Edmonton Oilers. But a goaltending change, and three straight wins later, has Edmonton in position to eliminate the Kings from the NHL playoff bracket in tonight’s Game 6.
Puck drop is scheduled for 7 pm PT / 10 pm ET from Rogers Place, in Edmonton, AB, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Kings vs Oilers Prediction
My prediction is the Oilers add to LA’s postseason misery tonight. The Kings haven’t made it out of the first round in five consecutive playoff appearances, and aren’t generating enough offense for that to change.
LA jumped out to a 2-0 series lead thanks to the shaky goaltending of Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner. They scored six times on only 61 shots, lighting the lamp on 38% of their high-danger scoring chances. Their unsustainable shooting percentage continued in their Game 3 loss, scoring four times on 28 shots versus Calvin Pickard.
Since then, however, Pickard has stood tall, and the LA scoring chances have diminished. The Kings have generated only 4.76 expected goals over the last two contests. They produced just 7 high danger scoring chances in Game 5, and were outshot 46-22 on home ice.
LAK vs EDM Advanced Stats (Playoffs)
Pickard has posted a .927 and .955 save percentage over his last two starts, while the Oilers defenders are doing an excellent job of keeping LA out of the high danger zones. The 33-year-old has the ninth best save percentage among goalies this postseason, while Skinner had the worst.
At the other end of the rink, the Kings have no answer for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The dynamic duo are the main reason why Edmonton is a Stanley Cup odds contender. They’re tied for the playoff lead with 10 points a piece, scoring or assisting on 5 of the Oilers last 7 goals.
Edmonton is having no problem generating high-danger chances, producing 29 in Game 5 alone. Darcy Kuemper stood on his head in the LA net to hold the Oilers to just 2 goals, but we can’t expect that to continue. Edmonton is carrying the play at even strength this series, holding a 58.26 to 41.74% Corsi For advantage.
The Oilers have generated 34 more shots on goal, 6 more expected goals, and 39 more high danger chances. They lead the playoffs in the ladder category, ranking second in expected goals, and third in total scoring chances.
Kings vs Oilers Expert Pick
- Edmonton Oilers to Win in Regulation (-105 at DraftKings)
What’s most impressive about the Oilers turnaround is that they’re laying it on one of the best defensive teams in hockey. The Kings led the NHL this season in expected goals against, yet rank 15th in the postseason.
The winners of Game 5 in a best-of-seven series tied 2-2 has gone on to advance 79% of the time. Edmonton is looking to add to that total after their Game 5 victory, and I’m betting they end LA’s season tonight.
History agrees, as the Oilers boast a 14-1 series record when leading 3 games to 2. The Kings on the other hand, have a 5-9 record when trailing a series 3-2.
-175 on the Edmonton moneyline is a bit steep, especially when they’re -105 to win in regulation. That’s the route I’m choosing as my favorite pick for Game 6.
Kings vs Oilers Best Odds
As for the best Kings vs Oilers odds, the shortest Edmonton moneyline is the aforementioned -175 at Caesars. The Oilers are laying 1.5 goals on the puck line at +150 odds, while LA comes back as a +145 underdog. The total sits at 6.5, a number that four of the five games in this series have cleared so far.
Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings On Your First 10 Bets!
Odds as of May 1st at Caesars. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review to see the available sign-up bonuses.
Per the NHL public betting trends, over 6.5 goals is generating 94% of all over/under wagers so far, while 85% of the moneyline tickets are backing McDavid and Co.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS
BET365 SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365
FANATICS SPORTSBOOKBET & GET UP TO $1,000 IN BONUS BETS!
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $250 IF YOUR BET WINS
CAESARS SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD2DYW & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 10 BETS!
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, MD, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, WY); (800) 327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA); (877) 8-HOPENY (NY); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); (888) 789-7777 (CT); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN); mdgamblinghelp.org (MD); morethanagame.nc.gov (NC); 1800gambler.net (WV)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
