Penguins vs Leafs Odds, Pick & Prediction (Nov 11)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins snapped a seven-game losing streak on Wednesday; the Toronto Maple Leafs have points in six of their last seven
- Toronto opens as a -162 favorite ahead of puck drop
- See the Penguins vs Leafs odds ahead Friday night’s matchup at Scotiabank Arena
The Pittsburgh Penguins (5-6-2) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (7-4-3) are headed in opposite directions.
Pittsburgh has been struggling since kicking off a five game road trip in late October. The Penguins snapped a seven-game losing streak on Wednesday against the Caps. Their defense has been the main culprit, as they gave up at least three goals in each loss.
The Maple Leafs just had to navigate a swoon of their own. After a stretch that saw them go 2-3-2, Toronto is back in the driver’s seat. Their three-game winning streak was snapped on Tuesday, but they still earned a point and are 3-0-1 over their last four.
Puck drop is slated for 7:00 pm ET from Scotiabank Arena on Friday.
Penguins vs Leafs Odds
| Game Time (ET) | Team | Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, November 11th | Pittsburgh Penguins | +1.5 (-186) | Ov 6.5 (-108) | +133 |
| 7:00 PM | Toronto Maple Leafs | -1.5 (+150) | Un 6.5 (-113) | -162 |
Odds as of November 10th from Barstool Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the Barstool Sportsbook promo code ahead of puck drop.
The Maple Leafs open up as home favorites over a Penguins side desperate for another win. That isn’t surprising considering just how badly the Penguins have played over the last two weeks. They’re not just losing games and giving up too many goals, but they’re blowing late leads as well.
Five of Pittsburgh’s losses have been by two more more goals, so covering isn’t a foregone conclusion. One could argue that the over is relatively conservative considering the offenses both teams can ice, the situation in net for Toronto, and Pittsburgh’s penchant for giving up crooked numbers.
Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Trends
Despite their struggles, the Penguins still sit 11th in the Stanley Cup odds. That kind of clout is deserved when you can trot out a still-producing Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Each picked up an assist in Wednesday’s win, while Jake Guentzel had a goal and an assist.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Last Five Games
| Opponent | Final Score | Penguins Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 @ WSH | 4-1 PIT | -130 | 6.5 (Under) |
| Nov 5 vs SEA | 3-2 SEA | -200 | 6.5 (Under) |
| Nov 2 vs BUF | 6-3 BUF | -120 | 6.5 (Over) |
| Nov 1 vs BOS | 6-5 (OT) BOS | -125 | 6.5 (Over) |
| Oct 29 @ SEA | 3-1 SEA | -120 | 6.5 (Under) |
Crosby has typically been at his best against the Leafs. Sid has 68 points in 47 games against Toronto, which is his highest point total against any team he’s played fewer than 50 games against.
Prospective starter Tristan Jarry has done fairly well against the Leafs too. He’s posted a 4-2-0 record in seven games with a .919 save percentage.
Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends
As back-to-back Richard Trophy winner Auston Matthews has started to round into form, so have the Leafs.
Matthews had a fine start to his season with two goals and five assists over his first nine games. But Toronto sat at .500, going 4-4-1 to open the year.
Since then, Matthews has four goals and three assists in five games. He scored in three-straight games against the Ducks, Flyers and Bruins, and the Leafs have points in all five games.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Last Five Games
| Opponent | Final Score | Leafs Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 vs VGK | 4-3 (OT) VGK | -115 | 6.5 (Over) |
| Nov 6 @ CAR | 3-1 TOR | +140 | 6.5 (Under) |
| Nov 5 vs BOS | 2-1 TOR | -135 | 6.5 (Under) |
| Nov 2 vs PHI | 5-2 TOR | -340 | 6.5 (Over) |
| Oct 30 @ ANA | 4-3 (OT) ANA | -185 | 6.5 (Over) |
You can’t blame Leafs fans if, despite the good vibes, they’re still waiting for the other shoe to drop. Toronto lost starter Matt Murray after the opening game of the season. Then the team lost Ilya Samsonov during the game against the Bruins.
So in comes Erik Kallgren, who proceeds to stop all seven shots he faced against Boston, backed the Leafs to a 3-1 win over Carolina the next night, and nearly escaped with a win against the Golden Knights.
The Leafs are still eagerly anticipating the return of both Murray and Samsonov, but they won’t turn down results like these.
Penguins vs Leafs Prediction
Despite how well Kallgren has played, it would be wise to expect scoring on Friday night.
And with how well Matthews has been playing, it’s safe to start there.
Penguins vs Leafs Same Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews to score anytime | -124 |
| Sidney Crosby to score anytime | +195 |
| Both teams to score two goals | -240 |
| Parlay Odds | +510 |
*Parlay odds available via Barstool Sportsbook
The Leafs are a good bet to win at home on Friday for a number of reasons. But with these two, the goals are almost a guarantee.
With the home side not offering longer odds, back the total on Friday night.
The Pick: Over 6.5 (-108); 1 unit
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Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
