Odds to Be Next National Security Adviser: Stephen Biegun Favored

• John Bolton is out as National Security Advisor
• The odds favor Stephen Biegun or Brian Hook being named as Bolton’s replacement
• Who’s the best bet?

Donald Trump seems to run the White House kind of like he ran The Apprentice: he fires a lot of people.

The latest was National Security Advisor John Bolton, who clashed with President Trump over a number of issues. With the country on the cusp of war with Iran, who will Trump choose as his next National Security Adviser?

 Odds To Be Named Next National Security Advisor

Odds taken 09/16/2019.

Bolton Out, Charles Kupperman In For Now

It’s unclear exactly what was the final straw in the Bolton-Trump relationship, but whispers out of the White House suggested that Bolton wanted to be tougher on Iran and North Korea – possibly going as far as suggesting war.

It’s not the first time Bolton has been tied to this as he’s been labeled a “warmonger”.

Bolton’s deputy, Charles Kupperman, will now take over in the interim. Bolton’s permanent replacement will have to be announced soon, but the good news for Trump is that no Senate confirmation is necessary. He can just pick the person he wants for the job. That person will be the fourth National Security Adviser in three years.

Stephen Biegun Favored

Although he’s not a well-known name, Stephen Biegun is the favorite to be the next National Security Advisor. Biegun is a special representative for North Korea and reports indicate he’s more closely aligned in views with Trump than Bolton was.

Trump doesn’t seem to want to cede control of these decisions and, while Bolton was more of a free thinker who wanted to make the calls himself, Biegun seems to be fine with allowing the President to have the last say.

Brian Hook Among Favorites But Might Not Be A Great Bet

Another possibly for the nomination is Brian Hook, who is a top official in the State Department. Hook works on Iran policy, however, he might not be a good bet at this point. The Inspector General will reportedly be criticizing and recommending Hook for disciplinary action in a forthcoming report.

The IG has been looking into Hook and other State Department officials in their handling of the layoffs of personnel who were supposedly loyal to the Obama Administration. There are a number of allegations that Hook didn’t treat them well and canned them. There has been a probe as the IG has analyzed at e-mails and documents.

With that report due in a few weeks, he doesn’t look like he’s in a good spot for a promotion.

What’s The Best Bet?

There are a number of options on the table. Richard Grenell, the ambassador to Germany, appears to a good choice. He supposedly had dinner with President Trump on Saturday.

Mike Pence’s national security adviser, retired General Keith Kellogg, is also someone who has been bandied about.

Trump seems to like what Hook and Grenell are doing in their current roles, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Biegun was the eventual choice. My money is on him.