Presidential Election Live Odds & Updates – Trump as Short as -1000

• Tuesday is election day in the United States
• Donald Trump remains a slight favorite over Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential Election odds
• Below, see the current 2024 Presidential Election odds and how they have moved over the course of election day

Four years in the making, election day has arrived. Americans head to the ballot box on Tuesday, November 5, with the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump extremely close according to all polls. The first table below displays the latest Presidential Election odds at bet365 and William Hill. The graph underneath the table shows the average odds, and how the odds have moved over the course of election day. On the morning of Nov. 5, Trump was a -149 favorite on average (59.84% implied win probability) with Harris a +133 underdog (42.92% implied win probability).

Live Presidential Election Odds

Odds updated 10:47 pm ET, November 5. Read SBD’s political betting sites FAQ. 

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In a surprise move, DraftKings has re-posted its election futures as of Tuesday morning. DK was one of several books to remove election odds after the assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, PA, on July 13.

Presidential Election Odds Timeline:

• 10:33 pm ET: As early returns continue to favor Trump, he has improved to a staggering -947 (90.45% implied win probability). Harris has dropped all the way to +603. Barring a massive Harris comeback, that will be the last update for the night.
• 10:09 pm ET: If the odds were the deciding factor, this race would be all but over. Trump has improved to -776 on average (88.58% implied win probability). Harris is way back at +514 (16.29% implied win probability).
• 9:31 pm ET: Trump is back to -293, just short of his best odds of the day. Harris has faded to +247 in the last 20 minutes.
• 9:10 pm ET: The Trump momentum has halted and slightly reversed. In the last 25 minutes, Trump has moved from -299 to -267, while Harris has improved from +248 to +222.
• 8:52 pm ET: Trump continues to shorten as initial results come trickling in. Trump is now a -299 favorite, on average, while Harris has faded to +248, by far the longest odds of the day.
• 7:45 pm ET: The first big shift in the odds just took place. Trump moved from -158 to -210 over the last half hour. Harris faded from +134 to +177.
• 7:17 pm ET: Trump is now just a -158 favorite. Harris has improved to +134.
• 6:12 pm ET: Half an hour before the first polls close, Trump has dropped from -164 to -163, while Harris has improved from +143 to +138.
• 4:04 pm ET: There has been very little movement over the last 45 minutes. Trump went from -166 to -164, while Harris improved from +144 to +143
• 3:23 pm ET: The odds have stayed the same over the past hour: Trump -166 / Harris +144.
• 2:16 pm ET: Trump’s lead is growing again. He’s now -166 on average. Harris has dropped to +144.
• 1:19 pm ET: Harris moved back from +134 to +136 over the last hour. Trump went from -155 to -156.
• 12:09 pm ET: More good news for the Harris camp: the VEEP has shortened from +138 to +134 in the last few minutes. Trump has moved from -157 to -155.
• 11:45 am ET: The odds are narrowing again, with Harris improving from +143 to +138 over the past 45 minutes and Trump fading from -160 to -157.
• 10:58 am ET: Trump improved incrementally over the last hour, going from -159 to -160 with Harris fading from +142 to +143.
• 9:59 am ET: The odds are narrowing once again, with Trump falling from -162 to -159 on average. Harris has improved from +145 to +142 over the last hour.
• 8:37 am ET: The betting odds have moved a little further to Trump over night: he is now the -162 chalk, on average, compared to Harris at +145.
• 1:05 am ET: Trump has shortened ever so slightly to -151 over the last hour or so, with Harris dropping from +133 to +135.
• 12:25 am ET: In the wee hours of the morning on Nov. 5, Trump is a -149 favorite on average with Harris a +133 underdog. That represents a slight improvement for Trump compared to Monday, when he closed at -131. Harris has faded from +115 on Nov. 4.

Harris vs Trump Odds (Nov. 5 Timeline)

The table below lists the same information in the graph above (i.e. the odds for both Harris and Trump at various points on Nov. 5) in table-format.

Election Day Trends

Notably, fivethirtyeight.com contradicts the betting odds and says that Harris is the slight favorite. In their simulations, Harris wins the 2024 election 50 times out of 100 while Trump takes back the White House in 49 instances.