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Will Donald Trump Return to Twitter? Odds Favor Return Before December

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics News

Oct 31, 2022 · 6:00 PM PDT

ormer President Donald Trump speaks with the media
Oct 27, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Former President Donald Trump speaks with the media following his round during the Pro-Am tournament before the LIV Golf series at Trump National Doral. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
  • Odds are set at +150 that former US President Donald Trump will be back on Twitter tweeting away before December
  • Trump was banned from Twitter following the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol
  • New Twitter owner Elon Musk is suggesting that a board will be put in place to determine whether banned users should be tendered an invitation to return to the platform

It could be argued that the decline of Twitter from social media site into social warfare site was originally ignited by the presence of Donald Trump. Given the most visible position in the world as 45th President of the United States, he utilized his Twitter platform to attack rivals, spread hate and generally be an irascible and incendiary presence.

That ended following the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol. Twitter banned Trump, feeling his vitriol on their site was responsible in part for fueling the attempted overthrow of Congress.

However, with billionaire Elon Musk recently acquiring Twitter, he’s publicly floating the notion of removing the bans on controversial figures such as Trump. Oddsmakers are of the belief that Trump will be returning to his raging presence on the social media platform sooner than later. Before December of this year is the +150 favorite to be the month when Trump returns to Twitter.

When Will Donald Trump Return To Twitter?

Date Odds
Before December 2022 +150
December 2022 +325
January 2023 +350
February 2023 or Later +250

Odds as of October 31.

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Click on Trump’s Twitter feed @realdonaldtrump and you’ll get the following message: “Account suspended. Twitter suspends accounts that violate the Twitter Rules”. 

Trump is the +300 favorite to win in the 2024 US Presidential election odds.

Will Twitter Roll Out Welcome Mat To The Donald?

Originally, Musk was insisting that a committee would be forming to debate the status of those like Trump with Twitter accounts under suspension. Then on Monday, word came that Musk was dismissing the entire Twitter board.

Musk seems to be cut from the same cloth as Trump, and no one is going to tell him what to do. Besides, Musk is first and foremost all about making money for Elon. As much as Trump is a polarizing figure, he’s also like a car wreck. You don’t want to look, but you can’t take your eyes off of him.

Of course Musk is going to invite Trump back to Twitter. In his mind, it’s going to make good business sense. And that’s all that matters to him. But it might not happen before December. That’s a quick turnaround.

Pick: December 2022 (+325).

What Will He Say?

One thing about Trump – he’s never at a loss for words. Oh sure, they might be the same 15 words on repeat, but he’ll just keep on repeating them.

A prop wager is asking what words will Trump tweet first upon his return to the Twitter platform. “Great” is the overwhelming odds-on -10000 favorite, which fairly sums up Trump’s limited vocabulary.

To Appear In Donald Trump’s Next Tweet

Word(s) Odds
Great -10000
Our Country -4500
Truth -2500
Patriot(s) -1500
MAGA -1000
Save America -500
2024 +250
White House +250
Capitol +400
Elon +500
Fake news +500
Radical left +550
Rigged +600
Covid +800
Dumb +900
Haters and losers +950

A search of the Trump Twitter Archive shows that “great” is his most frequent tweet at 7,137 times. “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) is only at 599.

If you’re looking for value, consider a play on “fake news”. And no, this isn’t fake news. He’s tweeted “fake news” 979 times.

Pick: Fake news (+500)

Does Trump Want To Come Back To Twitter?

When he was dropped by Twitter, Trump was launching the rival social media site Truth Social. However, the truth is hurting.

According to app analysis company Sensor Tower, Truth Social counted 92,000 installs over the past month. In the same time frame, Twitter was displaying 14 million installs.

To Tweet Again In 2022

Person (Twitter handle) Odds
Marjorie Taylor Greene (@mtgreenee -150
Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones -110
Milo Yiannopoulos (@nero) +110
Steve Bannon (@WarRoomPandemic) +130

All that Truth Social has going for it is Trump. And he’s the money behind the site. Should he go back to Twitter, Truth Social figures to go the way of the DoDo Bird and the California Golden Seals.

That being said, narcissist that he is, Trump won’t be able to resist the chance to come back triumphantly to Twitter. The -110 chalk in the 2024 Republican nomination odds,  he certainly loves to talk about winning. However, he hasn’t had a win in a long time.

 

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