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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Odds, Predictions and Picks

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Nov 4, 2021 · 6:58 AM PDT

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. walks to his car before a NASCAR Cup Series auto race at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, N.C., Sunday, May 30, 2021. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond, File)
  • Kyle Larson is the favorite this week at the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race on Sunday, November 7th, 2021
  • The 2021 NASCAR season concludes from the Phoenix Raceway 
  • We’ve got you covered with all the NASCAR odds and trends ahead of Sunday afternoon’s finale at Phoenix

NASCAR heads to Phoenix, Arizona for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship on Sunday afternoon. This is after the race at Martinsville, where Alex Bowman bumped Denny Hamlin out of the way to get his fourth win of the season. The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race odds favor Kyle Larson at +190. However, some other NASCAR betting choices are there this week at Phoenix as the season concludes.

Let’s look at the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race odds from the Martinsville Speedway and figure out which drivers are the best bets.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Odds

Driver Odds to Win Odds to Finish Top Three Odds to Finish Top Five
Kyle Larson +190 -240 -360
Chase Elliott +350 -118 -240
Denny Hamlin +450 +105 -200
Martin Truex Jr. +500 +110 -182
Kyle Busch +1800 +450 +175
William Byron +1800 +450 +175
Brad Keselowski +2200 +550 +210
Joey Logano +2200 +550 +210
Ryan Blaney +2500 +600 +240
Kevin Harvick +2500 +600 +240
Alex Bowman +3000 +700 +270
Christopher Bell +4000 +1000 +350
Kurt Busch +6000 +1400 +485
Aric Almirola +10000 +2200 +675
Tyler Reddick +10000 +2200 +675
Matt DiBenedetto +15000 +3000 +900
Chris Buescher +20000 +4000 OTB
Austin Dillon +20000 +4000 OTB
Bubba Wallace +20000 +4000 OTB

Odds as of November 4th at Barstool Sportsbook

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Kyle Larson Favored in NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

NASCAR drivers will run on the 1-mile Phoenix Raceway when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 3:00 PM EST.

At Martinsville, Kyle Larson had already cemented his spot in the Championship finale race at Phoenix with two wins. He simply avoided contact and cruised to a top-15 result.

Kyle Larson benefits from the metrics and odds. He also has five top-ten finishes in his last six races at Phoenix with an average finish of 7.00.

Now, Larson does not lead a lot of laps at Phoenix. His percentage there is 3.04%. Interestingly, the Hendricks Racing car is then followed by Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and finally Martin Truex Jr. to round out the Championship Four.

Kyle Larson will do almost anything to win a race. He has won nine times this year. If he wins a tenth, he takes home his first-ever NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

Chase Elliott is the second betting favorite at +350 in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds. Four drivers have odds of +500 or shorter.

The final race of this season is on a 1-mile tri-oval. This race will crown your NASCAR champion.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2020 Chase Elliott — Hendrick Motorsports Racing Chase Elliott — Hendrick Motorsports Racing Chase Elliott — Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2019 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2018 Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing
2017 Matt Kenseth – Joe Gibbs Racing Ryan Blaney – Wood Brothers Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2016 Joey Logano – Team Penske Alex Bowman — Hendrick Motorsports Racing Alex Bowman — Hendrick Motorsports Racing

The race is normally 312 laps, but overtime has only occurred twice since 2009. 2015 featured a rain-shortened version of the race at 219 laps.

Truex Jr. Betting Analysis at NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Sports bettors have quite a nice window of history when it comes to the Phoenix track. Yes, Martin Truex Jr. may not be such a sneaky pick when it comes to the NASCAR Cup Series odds.

The good news for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver is that Truex Jr. drives quite well here. He has one win and five top-ten finishes in seven races. That helps his status quite a bit.

So, does one go with Larson, Truex Jr, Hamlin, or Elliott on Sunday? All are good choices, but hey what about a longshot pick that could crash the party. The last few years have mostly seen the winner come from the Championship Four.

Almirola a Longshot Candidate at the Series Finale?

Lost in all the chaos is the fact that Aric Almirola has an average finish of 9.86 over his last seven races at Phoenix. That includes four top-ten finishes and a couple of near victories.

Also, it will be intriguing to see where Almirola qualifies on Sunday. He may be able to take advantage of a good car and build here on the one-mile track.

The possibilities this weekend are endless for Sunday, and do not worry about the weather for a change. It will be around 90 degrees with Mostly Sunny skies and a very light Southeast wind.

Finally, here are our best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship:

  • Top Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to win (+500)
  • Medium Shots: Joey Logano (+900), Alex Bowman (+1100)
  • Longshots: Matt DiBenedetto (+6000), Aric Almirola (+10000)
  • Martin Truex Jr. Top 3 (+110), Joey LoganoTop 5 (+210), Kyle Busch Top 5 (+175)
  • More picks are always on social media @ChrisWasselDFS
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