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Pennzoil 400 Presented by Jiffy Lube Odds & Predictions 2023

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated Mar 1, 2023 · 11:03 AM PST

NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr on the track
Nov 5, 2021; Avondale, Arizona, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr during practice for the Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NASCAR season rolls into Vegas for the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube set to run on Sunday, March 5th, 2023
  • The contending favorites include Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, and Joey Logano
  • Below are the Pennzoil 400 betting odds and picks ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR takes the I-15 up to Las Vegas, Nevada, for the third race of the 2023 season. The Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile “tri-shaped-oval” intermediate track. The race distance totals 400 miles (267 laps). Who can negotiate these 20-degree turns and the 12-degree tri-oval the best on Sunday?

This weekend’s race is a week after the Pala Casino 400 where Kyle Busch won his first race as a member of Richard Childress Racing, holding off Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain.

The table below lists the entire slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the Pennzoil 400 (win, podium finish, and top-ten finish). Under the table, find the Pennzoil 400 predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

Pennzoil 400 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Ten Odds
Kyle Busch +600 +185 -250
Ross Chastain +800 +235 -195
Kyle Larson +800 +235 -195
Joey Logano +800 +235 -195
Ryan Blaney +1100 +325 -150
Denny Hamlin +1100 +325 -150
Martin Truex Jr. +1100 +325 -150
Chase Elliott +1200 +350 -139
Christopher Bell +1400 +400 -130
William Byron +1800 +525 -104
Kevin Harvick +2000 +575 +105
Tyler Reddick +2000 +575 +105
Alex Bowman +2200 +650 +110
Daniel Suarez +2500 +750 +115
Bubba Wallace +3000 +850 +140
Austin Dillon +4000 +1100 +165
Brad Keselowski +4000 +1100 +165
Chase Briscoe +5000 +1300 +170
Erik Jones +6000 +1500 +195
Ryan Preece +6600 +1600 +240
Ty Gibbs +6600 +1600 +240

Busch enters this race as a +600 favorite to win, followed by Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Larson at +1000.  This track continued last year’s early dominance by Chevy and Hendrick Motorsports. Alex Bowman held off Kyle Larson here. Does Kyle Larson move up one more step or does Ross Chastain continue to run fast and take the checkered flag?

NASCAR drivers start their engines on the 1.5-mile, 80-80-107 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning just after 3:30 pm ET on FOX.


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Odds as of March 1st at Barstool Sportsbook.

Chevy and Hendrick Motorsports Favorites Again on Sunday

Once more, Hendrick Motorsports won the race last year capped off by Alex Bowman. The thing is Kyle Larson enjoys this track with four top-five results, a win, and the highest laps led percentage on intermediate tracks (28.7%). Overall, he has led one out of every six laps at Las Vegas in the past three seasons (six races).

Now, Larson, Chastain, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano are listed anywhere from +600 to +800. The DraftKings Sportsbook odds were a bit different with Larson at +700 and Hamlin at +1000. Naturally, Byron sits at +1200, but Bowman comes in at +2000. Even Noah Gragson (finished 11th last year) rides in at +8000.

Pennzoil 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Alex Bowman – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Christopher Bell – Joe Gibbs Racing Ross Chastain – Trackhouse Racing
2021 Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2020 Joey Logano – Team Penske Kyle Busch– Joe Gibbs Racing Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing
2019 Joey Logano – Team Penske Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing
2018 Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Ryan Blaney – Team Penske Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing

Kyle Busch and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. In The Playoffs Early

Sports bettors now believe in Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch this week. However,  the NASCAR Cup Series odds are still so early in the season. Busch and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. winning races means they are likely in the Round of 16 barring something unforeseen. There is still such a long way to go. Ross Chastain had a disastrous first two weeks last year. Last week he led the most laps at Fontana (91) and finished third.

Then, Joey Logano got unlucky again in the end as Chevy, err Stenhouse Jr., was at the right place at the right time. Again, the 2022 Cup Series winner is in good position for Sunday. He won twice in the past six races at Las Vegas. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have won here too.

Qualifying was a bit of a mixed bag. Christopher Bell won the pole last year and could be strong again. Kyle Busch figures to be close to the top along with Larson, Logano, and even Ryan Blaney possibly.

Pennzoil 400 Predictions & Picks

Yes, weather delivered an interesting potpourri of rain and snow last weekend. This weekend will be mild, but windy with possible 30-40 mph gusts. Temperatures should settle into the low 60’s.

Last year’s race featured 12 cautions (60 laps). There were 15 drivers who led the race and 23 lead changes.

Though Bowman and Blaney are enticing, can they be trusted this weekend? All four Hendrick cars had 43 or more points the previous March.

Wind could be an issue at times. Keep that in mind. Expect a few more pick updates on social media before Sunday’s race. That may benefit Martin Truex Jr. especially if Toyota does not have late run issues.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to Win (+1200 – DraftKings)
  • Other Contenders: Kyle Larson (+800), Joey Logano (+800), Denny Hamlin (+1100), Kyle Busch (+600)
  • Longshots:  Kevin Harvick (+2500), Chase Briscoe (+5000), Aric Almirola (+8000)


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