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United Rentals Work United 500 Predictions, Picks & Odds

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated Mar 7, 2023 · 10:39 PM PST

NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson looking to his right
Mar 4, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson (5) during qualifying at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NASCAR season slides down to Phoenix for the United Rental Works United 500 set to run on Sunday, March 12th, 2023
  • The contending favorites include Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson,  Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney
  • Below are the United Rental Works United 500 betting odds and picks ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR travels down to Avondale, Arizona, for the fourth race of the 2023 season. The Phoenix Raceway is a 1-mile short track with low banking and a tri-oval. The race distance totals 312 miles (500 laps – 500 km). Will what happened last week correlate to this week much like last season?

This weekend’s race is a week after the Pennzoil 400 where William Byron won, holding off his teammates Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman for the victory.

The table below lists the entire slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the United Rentals Work United 500 (win, podium finish, and top-ten finish). Under the table, find the United Rentals Work United 500 predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

United Rentals Work United 500 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Ten Odds
Joey Logano +800 +240 -250
Ryan Blaney +850 +255 -195
Kyle Larson +900 +265 -195
Christopher Bell +1000 +290 -195
Kyle Busch +1000 +290 -150
Ross Chastain +1000 +290 -150
Denny Hamlin +1000 +290 -150
Kevin Harvick +1000 +290 -139
Martin Truex Jr. +1100 +325 -130
William Byron +1200 +360 -104
Alex Bowman +2000 +600 +105
Chase Briscoe +2000 +600 +105
Tyler Reddick +2500 +750 +110
Bubba Wallace +3500 +1000 +115
Daniel Suarez +3500 +1000 +140
Brad Keselowski +4000 +1100 +165
Ryan Preece +4000 +1100 +165
Aric Almirola +5000 +1300 +170
Josh Berry +5000 +1300 +195
Ty Gibbs +5000 +1300 +240
Austin Cindric +6600 +1700 +240

Logano enters this race as a +800 favorite to win, followed by Ryan Blaney (+850), and Kyle Larson at +900.  This track continued last year’s early dominance by Ford and Team Penske. Alex Bowman held off Kyle Larson here. Does Kyle Larson get to just race at the end? Typically, Phoenix features longer runs at the end with fewer cautions.

NASCAR drivers rev their engines on the 1-mile, 75-112-122 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning just after 3:30 pm ET on FOX.


Odds as of March 7th at Barstool Sportsbook.

Team Penske Gets a Slight Nod for Sunday But…

Now, the problem with dropping down to the low-horsepower package is the potential correlation between Las Vegas and Phoenix. How much of an advantage is there really? That answer is simply no one knows. However, there are definite concerns when it comes to figuring out the outlook for Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney.

Now, both drivers were listed in the +800 to +850 range. The DraftKings Sportsbook odds strayed very slightly but nothing outrageous. That seemed like a gripe from some experts from various outlets. It merits mentioning the slew of racers between +800 and +1200. Phoenix is not a superspeedway. Does Chevy dominate long-run over the Ford’s on Sunday afternoon? It is possible again.

United Rentals Work United 500 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Chase Briscoe – Stewart-Haas Racing Ryan Blaney – Team Penske Ryan Blaney – Team Penske
2021 Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Joey Logano – Team Penske
2020 Joey Logano – Team Penske Chase Elliott– Hendrick Motorsports Racing Chase Elliott– Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2019 Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing Ryan Blaney – Team Penske Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing
2018 Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Martin Truex Jr. – Furniture Row Racing Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing

Question Marks Galore With NASCAR Futures

Sports bettors now know that Chase Elliott will be out for the next six weeks (broken tibia). However,  the NASCAR Cup Series odds are still so early in the season. Elliott’s numbers have lengthened to around +1000. A waiver is likely to be granted under the circumstances. Only one driver has been denied (less than a 5% rate).

Do all of the Ford adjustments continue to bite them back again? It did last week. Much like a slow Kyle Larson pit stop, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and others could not keep up over the final stage of Las Vegas. These early growing pains last year opened the door for Ford and Logano. Toyota gains somewhat of an advantage here with drivers like Christopher Bell and Bubba Wallace producing top-five results.

Qualifying and 50 minutes of practice will be a good thing for this weekend at Phoenix. Maybe the playing field and odds will start to spread out a bit.

United Rentals Work United 500 Predictions & Picks

Yes, tranquil conditions are likely this weekend with warm temperatures and little chance of rain.

Qualifying in the top ten helps. Nine of the last ten winners have started from the first five rows.

Though another Hendrick podium sweep is unlikely, a chance that at least two of the three wind up in the top five would not be a surprise.

Hierarchy appears to dictate Chevy-Toyota-Ford. Will that pan out again on Sunday?

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: Kyle Larson. to Win (+900)
  • Other Contenders: Ross Chastain (+1000), William Byron (+1200), Kyle Busch (+1000)
  • Longshots:  Bubba Wallace (+3500), Alex Bowman (+2000), Austin Cindric (+6600)


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