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Xfinity 500 Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated Oct 26, 2022 · 8:25 AM UTC

NASCAR Cup Series driver Chase Elliott celebrates winning the Xfinity 500
Nov 1, 2020; Martinsville, VA, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (9) celebrates winning the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NASCAR Playoff Chase concludes its final segment with the Xfinity 500 set to run on Sunday, October 30th, 2022
  • Several contenders include Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, and possibly Joey Logano
  • Below are the Xfinity 500 betting odds and picks ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR heads up to Martinsville, Virginia, for race number 35 of the 2022 season. The Martinsville Speedway is a 0.526-mile “paper-clip” short track. The race distance totals 500 laps over 263 miles. Now, who will be able to negotiate the Martinsville 12-degree bank and win on Sunday?

The last race of segment three is a week after the Dixie Vodka 400, where Kyle Larson ran away with the race and won with ease.

The table below lists the full slate of Xfinity 500 odds (win, podium finish, and top-ten finish). Under the table, find the Xfinity 500 predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

Xfinity 500 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Ten Odds
Chase Elliott +650 +185 -245
Denny Hamlin +700 +200 -230
Ryan Blaney +800 +230 -200
William Byron +800 +230 -200
Joey Logano +900 +260 -182
Martin Truex Jr. +1000 +290 -167
Kyle Larson +1300 +375 -150
Christopher Bell +1300 +375 -150
Ross Chastain +1400 +400 -139
Kyle Busch +1500 +450 -129
Kevin Harvick. +1800 +525 -150
Tyler Reddick +2500 +725 +100
Brad Keselowski +2800 +800 +115
Aric Almirola +3500 +1000 +140
Chase Briscoe +3500 +1000 +140
Bubba Wallace +3500 +1000 +140
Chris Buescher +4000 +1100 +175
A.J. Allmendinger +4000 +1100 +140
Austin Cindric +4000 +1100 +150
Austin Dillon +4000 +1100 +150
Daniel Suarez +5000 +1200 +175

Odds as of October 26th at Barstool Sportsbook. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook bonus code or check out other online sports betting sites.

Elliott enters this race as a slight +650 co-favorite to win, followed by Denny Hamlin at +700.  Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are next at +800. This is a short track where drivers can lead massive chunks of the race.

NASCAR drivers will start their engines on the 0.526-mile, 130-130-240 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 2:00 pm ET on NBC.



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Chase Elliott a Slight Betting Favorite for Xfinity 500

Yes, Chase Elliott remains a slight favorite for Sunday’s race at Martinsville. The No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Racing car has won here in November of 2020. That was the year Elliott won at Martinsville then Phoenix to take the NASCAR Cup Championship.

Now, Kyle Larson is third at Caesars with Joey Logano at +800.  Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick are still +700 at Caesars but Ross Chastain is at +1000 with five other drivers. The Caesars Sportsbook odds are mostly the same as other sites with some shorter numbers on Chase Elliott at +625. Also, Elliott is 11 points above the bubble. Does he race to win or stay in?

Who wins the October 30th race at Martinsville? The “Round of 8” ends Sunday. Expect much “scoreboard watching”.

Xfinity 500 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2021 Alex Bowman – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2020 Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2019 Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing
2018 Joey Logano – Team Penske Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing Joey Logano – Team Penske
2017 Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing Joey Logano – Team Penske Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing

The Playoff Chase Heats Up

Sports bettors still love Chase Elliott. However, thanks to the win at Las Vegas, Joey Logano has crept up to +240 in the NASCAR Cup Series odds. Remember, Logano is the only one who has advanced so far. The battle for the other three spots has William Byron on the bubble five points ahead of Denny Hamlin.

Ross Chastain has a decent cushion of 19 points and may need almost all of them on Sunday. Will his Chevy be able to keep up with the Hendricks? The Spring race saw Elliott take the pole and William Byron take the win. The two drivers led a combined 397 laps (98.5% of the race). Elliott won both stages but the two Penske’s (Blaney and Logano) were in the top-five. With Blaney 18 points behind, the No. 12 Ford likely needs a win. The same goes for Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe.

Xfinity 500 Predictions & Picks

So, the weather expects to be cloudy on Sunday with temperatures nearing 60.

Next-Gen short-track racing had an elevated number of cautions in April. Expect more of the same.

Finally, look at Brad Keselowski as a long-shot at +2800. Keselowski has run better of late and is always a threat at Martinsville. Yes, one of the “seven racers not named Logano” could win this race. Then again, some of the Ford’s ran well late and even Ross Chastain finished fifth here.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: Chase Elliott to Win (+650 – Barstool)
  • Other Contenders: Ross Chastain (+1400), Denny Hamlin (+700), William Byron (+800), Ryan Blaney (+800)
  • Longshots:  Brad Keselowski (+2800), Aric Almirola (+3500), Chase Briscoe (+3500)


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