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Burnley vs Manchester City Odds & Prediction – EPL Picks Week 1

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Aug 10, 2023 · 12:00 PM PDT

Jul 23, 2022; Green Bay, WI, USA; Manchester City FC midfielder Kevin De Bruyne (17) controls the ball during the second half against FC Bayern Munich at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
  • It’s Burnley vs Manchester City in the opener of the 2023-24 English Premier League
  • It all kicks off at Burnley’s Turf Moor at 3:00 pm ET on Friday, August 11
  • Read on here for our Burnley vs Manchester City analysis and predictions

The new Premier League season starts on Friday, August 11 with Burnley vs Manchester City at Turf Moor, with kick-off in Lancashire scheduled for 3:00 pm ET.

It brings Burnley boss Vincent Kompany face to face with the club where he enjoyed eleven seasons of huge success, and also up against Pep Guardiola, his manager for three of those trophy-laden seasons,

Who will get their season off to a flyer? See our Burnley vs Manchester City picks below as we look closely at the Premier League odds.

Burnley vs Manchester City Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Burnley +850
Manchester City -330
Draw +475

At odds of -330 for the win, City are big favorites to get the defense of their Premier League title off to a winning start and have an implied win probability of 77%, while Burnley are big outsiders and have an implied win probability of just 11% based on their moneyline of +850.

The over on 2.5 goals is listed at -165 while the under is in plus money at +135 in the DraftKings Sportsbook odds.


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How to Watch Burnley vs Manchester City

Viewers can watch Friday’s Burnley vs Manchester City clash on nbcsports.com, NBC Sports App, UNIVERSO, and USA Network in the US at 3:00 pm ET.

The Burnley Bounce Back

Burnley’s relegation from the Premier League at the end of the 2021-22 season proved merely a blip and they stormed the Championship last season, winning the title by ten clear points and smashing the 100-point barrier in the process.

Manager Vincent Kompany has strengthened the Clarets’ squad over the summer with several signings, including Swiss international striker Zeki Amdouni and Sheffield United midfielder Sander Berge. Kompany will look to his team to benefit from the momentum gained from winning the Championship in the early weeks of the campaign.

Burnley Doing It the City Way

Whether that momentum will be sufficient to see them go toe-to-toe with the mighty City is another matter, but this is a Burnley team that plays, for obvious reasons, in a similar style to Guardiola’s men. As a result, they will know what to expect from their esteemed opponents in terms of a tactical set-up and rhythm.

With a noisy, boisterous Turf Moor roaring them on, the Clarets will hope for an early goal to give them something to hang on to, while also hoping that a slightly under-cooked City will not be at their best at this early stage of the season.

Burnley vs Manchester City Head-to-Head Stats

29-14-3* 2022-23 League Record 28-5-5**
87 / 35* Goals For / Against 94 / 33**
Championship – winners Last Season Premier League – winners
0 Number of English Titles 9

* English Championship, ** EPL.

Treble-Winning City

After completing a fantastic treble last season – EPL, FA Cup & Champions League – City returned to training later than most Premier League clubs and have played just three pre-season games, one of which was last weekend’s Community Shield against Arsenal.

Against the well-prepared Gunners, a rusty-looking City drew 1-1 after 90 minutes but lost out on penalties, while in their first two matches, they beat Bayern Munich 2-1 in Tokyo before losing 2-1 to Atletico Madrid in Seoul.

Worth noting is that City didn’t finish their 2022-23 season until June 10, so it was a weakened squad that traveled to the Middle East.

Gundogan and Mahrez Depart the Etihad

While Guardiola’s squad hasn’t undergone a major summer overhaul, there have been some significant departures and arrivals. Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez – key figures in the treble-winning side – have left for pastures new, while in have come Joski Gvardiol from RB Leipzig and Mateo Kovacic from Chelsea.

City are notoriously slow-starters – often because of their extended summer breaks – but even with those signs of rust, they should still have enough quality to start their new season with a win. Star striker Erling Haaland is himself a notoriously slow starter but will not go too many games before the goals start to flow.

Burnley vs Manchester City Lineups and Injuries

Burnley Projected Lineup: Trafford | Vitinho, Beyer, Al-Dakhil, O’Shea | Zaroury, Amdouni, Brownhill, Gunmundsson, Roberts | Foster.

Injuries & absences: Obafemi.

Manchester City Projected Lineup: Ederson | Akanji, Dias, Stones, Walker | Kovacic, Rodri | Grealish, Alvarez, Silva | Haaland.

Injuries & absences: Ake.

Burnley vs Manchester City Prediction

Burnley’s outstanding 2022-23 campaign has instilled in them a winning mentality, which they’ll desperately need to make the most out of before the reality of EPL life kicks in, but they may have to wait until at least week 2 for that first win of the season.

Even a City playing at 75 percent is good enough to beat 75 percent of the EPL teams and Burnley definitely falls into that category. Yet this still may not be the goal-fest some are expecting given that this is only City’s fourth game since lifting with Champions League trophy.

A City win, but a low-scoring one is, for me, where the value lies.

Burnley vs Manchester City Pick: City to win 2-1 (+650) at DraftKings.


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