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Champions League Group Stage Matchday 4 Odds & Predictions Nov 24: RB Leipzig a Tempting +425 to Win in Paris

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer

Nov 22, 2020 · 11:32 AM PST

As Champions League continues to roll along, Matchday 4 features a high-profile match-up between PSG and RB Leipzig. Gary Gowers examines the key game in a tightly-packed Group H, as well as the rest of Tuesday's action.
  • It’s the UEFA Champions League Group Stage Matchday 4 on November 24, 2020
  • Among the games, two European heavyweights – PSG and RB Leipzig – go head-to-head in Group H
  • We list the odds for all eight games, preview three, and offer our best bets

It’s Matchday 4 of the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League Group Stage this week, with eight matches taking place on November 24, 2020, and another eight on Wednesday, November 25. Bayern Munich are the favorites to win the tournament, closely followed by the English pairing of Man City and Liverpool.

We’ll list the odds for Tuesday’s eight games, pick out three to preview, and offer some best bets.

UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Rennes vs Chelsea +350 +290 -134
FC Krasnodar vs Sevilla +370 +280 -134
Borussia Dortmund vs Club Brugge -335 +460 +850
Juventus vs Ferencvaros -1115 +1050 +2200
Paris Saint-Germain vs RB Leipzig -177 +350 +425
Dynamo Kyiv vs Barcelona +650 +420 -265
Manchester United vs İstanbul Başakşehir -420 +525 +1150
Lazio vs Zenit St Petersburg -114 +280 +300

All odds taken Nov 22 at DraftKings

Pick 1: Rennes vs Chelsea

Chelsea and Sevilla, the two pre-tournament favorites for Group E, already look well set to qualify for the knockout phase, both with seven points each from their first three games. After drawing 0-0 at Stamford Bridge on opening day, both teams have gone on to win their next two against FC Krasnodar and Rennes.

The Blues’ form in the Champions League has matched their good domestic form, where their win over Newcastle at the weekend has taken them up to second in the EPL. An inconsistent start to the season, where they were drawing too many games, appears to be behind them and with summer signing Timo Werner finally finding his best form, they have a menacing air about them.

By contrast, Champions League new boys Rennes are bottom of Group E with just one point earned so far from their 1-1 draw with Krasnodar on opening day, and are effectively battling the Russians for the third-place that brings with it entry into the Europa League.

It’s hard to see Rennes beating Chelsea – especially after losing 3-0 in the reverse fixture – but with their route to the knockout phase all but assured, Chelsea boss Frank Lampard will use this as a chance to play some fringe players. On that basis, there’s value here in the draw.

Pick: Rennes and Chelsea to draw (+290)

Pick 2: Paris Saint-Germain vs RB Leipzig

Unlike Group E, it’s all very much to play for in Group H, with just three points separating the four teams going into Matchday 4. Both RB Leipzig and PSG lost at the hands of Manchester United in the early rounds but things went from bad to worse for the Parisiens when in the reverse fixture of this game, they lost in Leipzig. As a result, this one is a must-win for the French champions and last season’s finalists, in what is a repeat of the 2019-20 semifinal.

RB are currently three points better off than PSG, with their humiliating 5-0 defeat in Manchester being offset by a solid 2-0 home win over İstanbul Başakşehir and the more-impressive 2-1 win over the French champions. A win here would almost guarantee them their place in the knockout stages.

While PSG start as -177 odds-on favorites, this will be much closer than those odds suggest, and with so much at stake for both teams there’s an argument that says this will be tight, tactical, and could end in a low-scoring draw. But, I’m going big in this and can see excellent value in the away win. RB are a good side – they’ve only lost once this season – while PSG have found this season’s UCL a slog, and so the Germans could edge this one.

Pick: RB Leipzig to win (+425)

Pick 3: Borussia Dortmund vs Club Brugge

BVB lead Group F but are still far from comfortable in a group that has developed into a three-way battle for the top two places. After losing their opening game of the campaign away to Lazio, Dortmund have since won twice – at home to Zenit and away to Brugge – and currently lead the group, a point ahead of Lazio and two ahead of the Belgians.

A win here for Brugge would see them leapfrog the Germans and so hand the initiative to Lazio, and it’s worth noting that Club did win their only other away win of the group so far – that tricky opener in St Petersburg.

But BVB at home, even in an empty stadium, are formidable and it’s been six cup games since they last lost at home in the Westfalenstadion, while Brugge have drawn a blank in eight of their last 20 away cup games. Despite that win in Russia, they are not good travelers.

There’s little value in the home win here, but the 2-0 BVB win on offer at +600 is tempting.

Pick: BVB to win 2-0 (+600)

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