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Champions League Odds After Round of 16 Draw; Odds Worsen for Barca & PSG, Improve for Juventus & Real Madrid

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Dec 14, 2020 · 10:47 AM PST

Barcelona's Lionel Messi
Barcelona's Lionel Messi, right, kicks for the ball to score his side's first goal during the Spanish La Liga soccer match between FC Barcelona and Levante at the Camp Nou stadium in Barcelona, Spain, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2020. (AP Photo/Joan Monfort)
  • The draw for the 2021 UEFA Champions League round-of-16 has been completed
  • Barcelona and PSG have both seen their odds worsen from +1567 to +1800 and +933 to +1233 respectively
  • We’ll list the odds for the winners and also look at the round-of-16 match-ups, looking for some value bets

The draw for the 2021 UCL round-of-16 was completed earlier and has triggered some significant changes in the betting. Barcelona and PSG have both seen their odds worsen, while Bayern Munich, who drew Lazio, remain as favorites to win the tournament with unmoved Champions League odds.

We will summarize some line movements and see who is the best bet to win, and also look at the round-of-16 head to heads to see if we can identify the value.

UEFA Champions League 2020-21 Winner

Team Winner
Bayern Munich +275
Manchester City +450
Liverpool +650
Juventus +1100
Paris Saint-Germain +1100
Real Madrid +1100
Chelsea +1700
Borussia Dortmund +2000
Barcelona +2000
Atletico Madrid +2500
Sevilla +3500
RB Leipzig +4000
Atalanta +4500
Lazio +6000
Borussia Monchengladbach +12500
FC Porto +15000

Odds from DraftKings taken Dec 14

Barca and PSG On the Slide

The last-16 draw triggered a big tilt in odds for a couple of the European giants. Prior to the draw, Barcelona averaged out at +1567 to win the tournament but having been drawn against PSG their odds have now slid to +1800. For the same reason, PSG have also seen their odds slide, from +933 to +1233, on the premise that Barca still has Messi and therefore remains a very dangerous opponent, even if their season has been an underwhelming one so far.

The other big losers, at least in terms of their prospects of going deep in the competition, were Lazio, who were drawn against the reigning champions, Bayern Munich – a nightmare tie for the Italians. As a result, their average odds lengthened from +6833 to +10333.

The Bavarians are still the team to beat and there has been precious little to suggest any of the other teams have closed the gap, although second-favorites Manchester City will be buoyed by drawing Borussia Monchengladbach, who have made the knockout phase of the tournament for the first time.

Man City Still Worth Watching

City’s owner, Sheikh Mansour, has made no secret of his desire to win the Champions League, even at the expense of the EPL, and the fact they have struggled domestically may just be a sign that the UCL is now the club’s priority. The Citizens will certainly push Bayern all the way.

Juve too is well worth keeping an eye on, not least because of their favorable round-of-16 draw. I expect the Italians to comfortably find a way past FC Porto and with Andrea Pirlo turning them into a really effective unit, the +1100 on offer is well worth considering.

Pick: Bayern Munich (+275)

UEFA Champions League Round-of-16 Odds

Matchup Odds to Advance Odds to Advance
RB Leipzig vs Liverpool +375 -500
Barcelona vs Paris Saint-Germain +110 -134
FC Porto vs Juventus +375 -500
Sevilla vs Borussia Dortmund +110 -134
Lazio vs Bayern Munich +500 -715
Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea -112 -118
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Manchester City +550 -835
Atalanta vs Real Madrid +300 -400

All odds taken Dec 14 at DraftKings 

The top two ties in the above table ensure that two ‘giants’ will not make it to the last eight. Let’s look at a couple of matchups that could offer some early value when betting which teams will advance to the quarterfinals.

Pick 1: RB Leipzig vs Liverpool

RB, while without the pedigree of the other three, made it to last season’s semifinal and are among the best-funded clubs in Europe. Their thrilling 3-2 win over Manchester United signified their intent and they will fancy their chances of at least repeating last season’s achievement of a place in the final four, especially if they can take a lead back to Anfield for the second leg.

Jurgen Klopp’s men have endured, by their phenomenally high standards, a tricky season, epitomized by their 1-1 draw at the weekend away to newly-promoted Fulham. Minus the services of the unflappable Virgil van Dijk, who is out for the season with an ACL injury, the Reds are a very different proposition to last season, with Klopp struggling to find a solid pairing at center-back.

As a result, the value here is with an RB win over two legs.

Pick: RB Leipzig to qualify (+375)

Pick 2: Barcelona vs Paris Saint-Germain

Something has to give as two of the big names clash in a tie that begins in Catalonia and concludes in Paris. Barca’s pedigree in this competition in the 21st century is almost without parallel but despite the presence of one Lionel Messi in their ranks, this has been a tricky season for them, and their 3-0 home defeat by Juve in the group stages will have hurt.

PSG, last season’s beaten finalists, will again be looking to go deep in this tournament but will be wary of a Barca team that, for all their domestic difficulties, is still bursting full of quality. For me, the Messi factor could be decisive here.

Pick: Barcelona to qualify (+110)

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