Germany vs Paraguay Odds, Picks, Predictions & Injury News

• Germany is a big favorite to advance past Paraguay on Monday, June 29
• Expect a heavy offensive barrage pushing this match well past the projected goal total
• Get expert Germany vs Paraguay picks and predictions, plus the best-available odds and injury news

Germany and Paraguay will met in Foxborough, MA, in the third game of the World Cup round of 32 on Monday. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 pm ET and the Germans are massive favorites to oust the scrappy South American side, which survived the group stage on sheer defensive grit.

Below, I will dissect the odds to uncover the sharpest betting angles for this knockout fixture.

Germany vs Paraguay Odds & Betting Lines

Odds as of June 28, 2026, from Kalshi.

I utilized Kalshi pricing for the moneyline since it offers superior payouts compared to traditional sportsbooks. Converting their share prices reveals highly efficient markets.A $10 bet on Germany’s moneyline yields a meager $13.51 payout. Conversely, placing a $10 wager on Paraguay returns $111.11.

The total opened at 2.5 goals. Heavy sharp action pushed the Over to -132, reflecting confidence in my expectation of an offensive clinic.

Germany vs Paraguay Best Bets and Predictions

Prediction Markets

Picks

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Full-Time Draw

86%

Over 2.5 Goals

57%

Kai Havertz to Score

38%

Predict

For my 3-way moneyline pick, I am backing the Draw at 19¢ (+426) on Kalshi. My prediction model calculates a 23.5% chance of a 90-minute draw, which is well above the 19% threshold need to make this a +EV wager.

My total goals pick targets Over 2.5 goals at 57¢ (-132). Germany has gone over 2.5 goals in each of their last seven matches. Paraguay’s defense is both tired and shorthanded. This pick doesn’t really align with the draw play – as Paraguay’s best route to a draw is to force a low-event game – but Germany’s defense is porous enough to concede multiple goals against desperate attackers, just as it did against Ecuador when the latter needed a win to qualify for the knockout stage.

My goalscorer pick isolates Kai Havertz to score at 38¢ (+163). He drops into deep pockets, pulling defenders out of structure. At +163, this prop presents outstanding +EV value against a depleted backline.

Picks Summary

Germany vs Paraguay Head to Head History

Germany and Paraguay have met twice previously. Germany edged Paraguay 1-0 at the 2002 World Cup on June 14, 2002, before the sides played out a 3-3 friendly draw on Aug. 14, 2013.

That limited history favors Germany, but the sample is too small to drive the betting handicap by itself. I am weighing current tournament form and squad availability far more heavily than the head-to-head record

Germany had been on an 11-match win streak until their 2-1 loss to Ecuador in the final game of the group stage, a match that meant little to Germany, who had already clinched first in the group, and everything to Ecuador, who needed three points to advance.

GER vs PAR World Cup Team Stats

The statistical disparity highlights an overwhelming mismatch. Germany dominates possession and shooting volume, comfortably leading the tournament in goals per match.

Paraguay ranks near the bottom in possession and offensive output. They survive purely by absorbing pressure, a dangerous game against the highest-scoring team in the bracket.

Germany vs Paraguay Injury Reports

Germany will be without Nico Schlotterbeck, while Nathaniel Brown is listed as doubtful. Paraguay’s availability concerns are more damaging to my handicap: Omar Alderete is doubtful, and Diego Gomez is suspended, leaving the underdogs thinner in exactly the areas they need to absorb Germany’s pressure.