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Jamaica vs Mexico Odds & Prediction – CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Jan 26, 2022 · 11:56 AM PST

Jamaica vs Mexico
Jamaica's Michail Antonio (18) is congratulated by teammates after scoring his side's opening goal against El Salvador during a qualifying soccer match for the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 at Cuscatlan stadium in San Salvador, El Salvador, Friday, Nov. 12, 2021. (AP Photo/Salvador Melendez)
  •  Jamaica hosts Mexico in the ninth round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying on Thursday, January 27th at 7:00 pm ET
  • Currently, Mexico sit in third place, above Panama on goal difference while Jamaica sit seven points back in sixth
  • Get the odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

The international break has officially started and should serve as a vital period for the final eight CONCACAF teams vying to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. One match to keep your eye on for Thursday night is Jamaica versus Mexico in Kingston at Independence Park.

The reverse fixture between Jamaica and Mexico was a tasty one, that saw El Tri take home the three points in the first matchday. Tata Martino’s side dominated the match, controlling 73% of the possession and mustering 27 shots on Andre Blake’s net.

Conversely, Jamaica was only able to create five shooting opportunities. They also committed 16 fouls in an effort to slow down the devastating Mexican attack.

However, Jamaica did get things level thanks to a left-footed Shamar Nicholson strike, just 15 minutes after Mexico’s first goal. If it were not for a 89th minute winner from Henry Martin, Jamaica could have easily left the Estadio Azteca with a valuable point in hand.

Jamaica vs Mexico Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Jamaica vs Mexico JAM +1 (-177) | MEX -1 (+148) JAM +460 | MEX -148 | DRAW +220 Ov 2.5 (+145) | Un 2.5 (-180)

Odds as of Jan 26th at Barstool Sportsbook


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Once again, Mexico are the heavy favorites in this match with moneyline odds of  -148. Despite this matchup featuring three goals the last time around, the under on 2.5 goals is also heavily juiced with odds of -180.

Mexico Need to Get Back to Winning Ways

Furthermore, despite Mexico being the favorites, their work is cut out for them in qualifying. Mexico has +10000 odds to win the World Cup, but they face the risk of not even making it there with a slip up in the latter stages of qualifying.

With six games remaining, they sit in third place on 14 points. The top three of World Cup Qualifying automatically advance to Qatar; however, the fourth place team must face the Inter-Confederation Playoffs.

Jamaica vs Mexico World Cup Qualifying Statistics

2-2-5 H2H Record (Since 2008) 5-2-2
0.75 Goals per game 1.38
1.25 Goals allowed per game 0.88
37.62% Possession % 58.88%
14.75 Fouls per game 14.50
7.88 Shots per game 14.88

Mexico had to do this in 2014, and while their triumph over New Zealand was quite easy, the stress and painstakingly high stakes were threatening. Right now, the only thing separating Mexico from that spot is a two-point advance on goal differential over Panama.

All in all, Mexico have to be perfect from here on out, especially against Jamaica in a very winnable game. They were missing some key pieces in the last time out against the Reggae Boyz, including the likes of Raul Jimenez, Hector Moreno, Hector Herrera, and Hirving Lozano.

Even though El Tri is coming off two consecutive losses to the United States and Canada, they should be fresh and ready to go for this new window.

Can Michail Antonio Put Jamaica on the Score Sheet?

Next, we all know that truly anything can happen in CONCACAF. With that being said, it is fair to label Jamaica as unlikely to win this match against what should be an inspired Mexico squad.

A more likely event is another Jamaica goal. They have scored in their last two H2H matches versus Mexico, and El Tri have only kept three clean sheets in eight World Cup Qualifying matches.

Jamaica will be without one of their star attackers, Kemar Roofe, in this game as he remains in Scotland with Rangers. Additionally, Leon Bailey and Shamar Nicholson will also be absent for the Reggae Boyz.

These absences only provide more opportunity for Jamaica’s other standout Michail Antonio. The Jamaican forward has two goals so far, scoring the pair in just 180 minutes of play. His 14 goal contributions this year for West Ham in the EPL make him a likely scorer against a still wobbly Mexico side.

Jamaica vs Mexico Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is both teams to score with odds of +120. This bet has tremendous value and is the smart pick given Mexico’s shaky form and juiced moneyline odds.

Pick: Both teams to score (+120)

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