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Aryna Sabalenka vs Donna Vekic Odds & Predictions – Australian Open Quarterfinals Women’s Singles

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Jan 23, 2023 · 12:05 PM PST

Aryna Sabalenka from Belarus during her round four match against Belinda Bencic
Jan 23, 2023; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Aryna Sabalenka from Belarus during her round four match against Belinda Bencic from Switzerland on day eight of the 2023 Australian Open tennis tournament at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
  • Aryna Sabalenka is a heavy favorite to defeat Donna Vekic in their Australian Open quarterfinal Tuesday
  • But … hold the phone. Vekic holds a 5-1 career head-to-head against the Belarussian
  • Read on as we get into why that might be, and look at Vekic’s upset potential in the Sabalenka vs VEkic odds

Not just because three of the top four seeds are out of the Australian Open – although that doesn’t hurt – but Aryna Sabalenka is looking very good to win her first Grand Slam singles title, if she can advance in the Sabalenka vs Vekic picks.

With Swiatek in the picture, Sabalenka’s odds were longer in the Australian Open odds. Now that she’s out, the Belarussian is at +200 to win it all.

Sabalenka vs Vekic Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[5] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) -4.5 (-130) -425 O 20.5 (-105)
Donna Vekic (CRO) +4.5 (+105) +320 U 20.5 (-115)

Odds as of Jan. 23 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The 24-year-old from Belarus went through a truly challenging 2022 when, right from the start of the season, she developed a serious case of the yips on her serve.


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That’s a mental more than a physical problem. And it has ruined many careers in many sports.

But she’s back in 2023 having found the silver lining: she still had a somewhat decent year. And it taught her that even if she thought she was completely dependent on her big serve for results, it turns out she has several other tools in her tennis kit that also help her win matches when that’s not firing.

That’s a big step, and it presages a swing right back to the top in 2023.

“I want to believe that the way I’m working right now, the way I’m on the court right now, this is the new beginning, and this is the next step. So I really want to believe that it’s going to really help me,” Sabalenka said Sunday.

Sabalenka 8-0 so far in 2023

Sabalenka went undefeated in winning the title at the WTA 500 in Adelaide to start her season.

And she’s a perfect 4-0 in Melbourne and hasn’t dropped a set, with her 7-5, 6-2 win over No. 12 seed Belinda Bencic in the fourth round Sunday, after being down 2-4 in the first set, her most noteworthy victory.

Bencic was the winner of the second Adelaide warmup tournament.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Donna Vekic Head-to-Head

Aryna Sabalenka
Donna Vekic
24 (May 5, 1998) Age 26 (June 28, 1996)
Minsk, Belarus Birthplace Osijek, Croatia
5-11 Height 5-10
11 Career ATP Singles Titles 3
No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021) Career-Best Ranking No. 19 (Nov. 4, 2019)
No. 5 Current Ranking No. 64
$12,302,010 Career Prize Money $5,665,590
28-22 2022 Won/Loss Record 24-18
1 Head-to-Head Wins 5

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Outstanding Sabalenka Stats

Through the first four rounds, Sabalenka’s statistics have been remarkably similar from match to match .

And overall she’s averaged three aces and three double faults a match, with just over 30 winners and just under 20 unforced errors.

For her game, those are winning numbers.

There’s just one rub.

Sabalenka vs Vekic Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 San Diego (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-1 Vekic
2021 Olympics (R32) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (3) Vekic
2019 San Jose (SF) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 6-3 Sabalenka
2017 Cincinnati (QR2) Outdoor Hard 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 Vekic
2017 St. Petersburg (QR1) Indoor Hard 6-4, 6-2 Vekic
2016 St. Petersburg (SF) Indoor Hard 6-1, 4-6, 6-1 Vekic

As much of a favorite as Sabalenka is to make her first Australian Open semifinal and her fourth major semi overall, she will meet a player on Tuesday who truly has had her number.

Vekic has one quarterfinal in 36 Grand Slam efforts and is looking for her first semifinal. It’s only the fifth time she’s made the second week of a major.

But she’s 5-1 against Sabalenka – all of those matches on a hard court – and has won their last two meetings in three tough sets.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Donna Vekic Prediction

Vekic has been in the top 20; in the end, maybe she just hasn’t gotten her break yet, at age 26. With her hard, flat shots being rewarded by the Australian Open conditions this year, maybe this is it.

Vekic’s wins over Sabalenka haven’t necessarily come at the biggest events. Except for the Olympics; Vekic drew the Belarussian in the first round, and beat her in three sets.

It will be a true test of Sabalenka’s newfound zen.

And it’s unlikely to be straightforward in the Sabalenka vs Vekic picks – even if it’s hard to know which way the wind will blow if Sabalenka is pushed harder than she has been so far.

Best Bet: Over 21.5 Games (+120)

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