Fritz vs De Minaur Picks, Prediction & Odds for ATP Finals

• Taylor Fritz is a -260 favorite vs Alex De Minaur in group stage action Thursdsay
• De Minaur has yet to win a match at the ATP Finals
• See my Fritz vs De Minaur predictions and picks below

---

We’re down to the nitty-gritty at the ATP Finals, with the field soon whittling down to a Final Four.

Our focus is on the Jimmy Connors Bracket, where Taylor Fritz battles Alex de Minaur. With world no. 1 Carlos Alcaraz nearly a lock to take one of the two spots in this group, a win would go a long way in claiming the second spot.

Fritz, who has a 1-1 record in the group stage, is a -260 favorite to win and keep De Minaur winless in Turin.

This one gets underway at 8am ET from Inalpi Arena in Turin, Italy, with the Tennis Channel providing the broadcast coverage.

Fritz vs De Minaur Odds

An upset price for De Minaur comes in at +205, but he’s struggled of late against Fritz, dropping the last two and five of the last seven to the American.

Fritz is a 3.5-game favorite on the spread, while the scoring line is at 22.5 games for this best-of 3 match.

Odds as of Nov 12 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s FanDuel review to see the available sign-up bonuses.

You have to wonder how much De Minaur has left in the tank, after a rough defeat last time out against Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti. After splitting the first two sets, he carried a 5-3 lead into the deciding set but couldn’t land the plane, losing 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 in a marathon battle that went two hours and 47 minutes.

While he does have a tournament title this year, De Minaur doesn’t have a strong resume against top tier competition. He opened the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals losing in straight sets to Alcaraz.

He’s in danger of losing four straight matches to end the season. There are a myriad tiebreak scenarios — one that even includes him failing to qualify if Alcaraz beats Lorenzo Musetti in three sets and De Minaur beats Fritz in three — that are too many to count, but De Minaur winning is his best chance to stay alive.

Fritz vs De Minaur H2H Results

*Tournament final

Fritz has held his own in Turin, working over Musetti in straight sets and taking Alcaraz the distance, before losing the third set 6-3.

The American looks comfortable on court, perhaps his runner-up finish a year ago to Jannik Sinner has provided him with all the experience he needs to excel this time around.

He’s handled De Minaur in some high-pressure situations in the last two wins: he beat him in straight sets at the quarterfinals of the 2024 Davis Cup, and he went the distance at this same tournament a year ago, prevailing 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.

Fritz vs De Minaur Picks & Prediction

• Under 22.5 Games (-108 at FanDuel)

These two have been great combatants over the last four years, with four of their six head-to-head matches going the full three sets, most recently at the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals.

Since losing to Alcaraz at the Japan Open, Fritz struggled, failing to advance past the third round in each of his last two tournaments before upping his game in Turin.

His only blemish so far was to the World No. 1, and his serve should be the difference in this one. He has double the aces De Minaur has on hard courts this yer (550 to 231), that’s helped him win nearly 80% of his first serve poitns.

He should stay ahead of De Minaur and keep the Aussie winless in Italy, making quick work of his opponent.