After Reaching the Finals of the Cincinnati Masters, Svetlana Kuznetsova’s US Open Odds Shorten From +17500 to +6100

• Svetlana Kuzenetsova is red-hot heading into the US Open
• The two-time Grand Slam winner is playing her best tennis in years
• Historically she plays very well against the top seeded players

Often when we witness a big drop in odds it’s a sign to be wary, take a pass, or move on to more obvious wagers because of the loss in “value”.  In the case of Svetlana Kuznetsova’s US Open odds moving from +17500 to +6100 that is not the case.

2019 WTA US Open Odds

*Odds taken Aug 22, 2019. 

Sure it would have been nice to bet the Russian veteran at the higher return but even at +6100, there is plenty of value to be had by taking a chance on her at Flushing Meadows. Both recent and not so recent history is proof of this.

First, she’s playing really well.  After undergoing minor wrist surgery at the end of 2017 she struggled through 2018, winning just over $340,000 the least she’s earned since 2002, her second year as a pro. This year she seems to be fully healthy and looked fantastic at the recent Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati.

She beat highly regarded Sloane Stephens in the third round, Karolina Pliskova, the WTA’s third-ranked player in the quarterfinals, and then handled number two seed Ashleigh Barty in the semis. She ended losing to the highly favored Madison Keys in the final by scores of 7-5 and 7-6 (7-5) but it was a match that could easily have gone Kuzetsova’s way.

Svetlana Kuznetsova, who nearly missed the US Open Series due to visa issues, is into the @CincyTennis final after beating 3 Top 10 players at a tournament for the first time in her illustrious career (Barty, Pliskova, Stephens).

She continues to amaze. https://t.co/sKcgR3P1hr pic.twitter.com/f5QfdCM3MB

— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) August 17, 2019

The second factor we need to examine when evaluating the logic in taking a +6100 shot at the US Open is Kuznetsova’s history. At 34 years of age she’s been a fixture on the women’s tour for a long time, and while she hasn’t often been talked about as an elite player like the Williams sisters, Kim Clijsters, or even Maria Sharapova, she’s been pretty darn good for the better part of two decades now.

As a singles player she’s been to four Grand Slam finals, winning two, the US Open in 2004 and the French Open in 2009.

As a singles player, she’s been to four Grand Slam finals, winning two, the US Open in 2004 and the French Open in 2009. In doubles, she’s appeared in seven Grand Slam finals, capturing two titles.

In addition to her success at the big tournaments, she’s also held her own against the ladies she’ll have to beat to have a chance at winning the US Open. Here are the top ten ranked players in the Open and Kuzentsova’s career record against them:

Kuznetsova vs Top 10

A lifetime record of 17-30 against this sort of group is not outstanding, but clearly, she’s been able to compete against elite competition with 17 wins. If you take out Serena Williams, whose health is a question mark right now after having to withdraw from her last two tournaments due to a sore back, then that record is improved to 14-20.

Um, we might need to talk about the six superb games Kuznetsova played from 0-2 down to take a 6-2 lead.

Some unbelievable forehands especially from the Russian in vintage form.#CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/pmtKLk2lhQ

— Live Tennis (@livetennis) August 17, 2019

If her odds of winning the US Open were +1000 or even +2000 you’d certainly have reason to pause. However, Svetlana Kuznetsova at +6100, with her pedigree, and with the way she’s been playing, it’s definitely worth the gamble.