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XFL Week 4 Picks – Guardians Heavy Underdogs At Home Facing Wildcats

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in XFL

Feb 28, 2020 · 7:38 PM PST

Week 4 in the XFL kicks off Saturday, February 29 at 2 pm ET. We take a look at the best bets for each of this weekend's games here.
  • The XFL season enters into Week 4 this weekend with another four games
  • Can the Los Angeles Wildcats cover an 8-point spread on the road against the New York Guardians?
  • Get the odds and best bets for each game on the XFL Week 4 schedule below

As the XFL moves into Week 4, the road team and the over are beginning to flex their muscles on the odds board.

Home teams covered in three of four games during Week 1 of the new league’s schedule. Since then, the ensuing two weeks have seen the home and road teams split the games right down the middle, a 2-2 finish each week.

Likewise, teams appear to be finding their offensive mojo more with each passing week. The under was the winning play on the total in three of four games in both Weeks 1 and 2. But Week 3 saw the total go 50-50. Two games went over and two games went under.

Let’s break down all the Week 4 games and determine the best plays in each of these contests.

Spread Widening For Wildcats

The Los Angeles Wildcats poured it on at home last week against the previously-unbeaten DC Defenders. LA outscored DC 39-9.

One week earlier, the same Defenders blanked the New York Guardians 27-0. As LA heads to MetLife Stadium to face the Guardians on Saturday (Feb. 29, 2 pm ET) in this battle of 1-2 squads, the Wildcats are eight-point favorites on the road.

Los Angeles Wildcats vs New York Guardians Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds
Los Angeles Wildcats -8 (-110) -320 Over 39 (-105)
New York Guardians +8 (-110) +260 Under 39 (-115)

Odds taken Feb. 28th

When the line opened on this game, the Wildcats were the seven-point chalk. Perhaps it’s the difference under center that is driving the money toward LA.

Since 12-year NFL veteran Josh Johnson returned from injury in Week 2, he’s proven to be among the XFL’s most effective passers. He’s thrown for five touchdowns and has yet to be picked off.

Johnson is completing 61% of his passes, and has accumulated 474 yards. He’s been sacked just twice and his passer rating of 114.7 is second best in the league.

On the other side of the field, New York is going through QBs like the Guardians are purchasing their contracts at the dollar store. The three-headed monster of Matt McGloin, Marquise Williams and Luis Perez is redefining dismal.

In combination, they’ve completed 52 percent of their pass attempts for 494 yards, only two touchdowns and a passer rating of 63.1. McGloin has thrown two interceptions. The trio has been sacked six times.

LA is number two in scoring offense (24.7 points per game). New York is fourth in scoring defense (19.3 PPG).

The Wildcats will win this game but giving away eight points to a home team is too much. Play the under, go with New York and take the points.

Pick: New York Guardians +8 (-110), Under 39 (-115).

BattleHawks Turning Heads

St. Louis is becoming one of the better teams in the XFL. The BattleHawks are also the best bet in the XFL. St. Louis is 3-0 against the spread this season.

Seattle Dragons vs St. Louis BattleHawks Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds
Seattle Dragons +11.5 (-110) +375 Over 38.5 (-105)
St. Louis BattleHawks -11.5 (-110) -550 Under 38.5 (-115)

The BattleHawks also offer early evidence that the Dome at America’s Center could become the toughest place for an XFL squad to visit. There was an XFL season-high 29,445 there for last week’s BattleHawks home opener as they smacked the Guardians 29-9.

St. Louis also owns one of the league’s most balanced offenses. The BattleHawks rank third in total offense (345.7 yards per game) and scoring (22.3 PPG) offense. QB Jordan Ta’amu is a threat with both his arm and legs. Matt Jones and Christine Michael offer a solid 1-2 punch at running back.

Two of the top defenses in the league will keep this score under the total of 38.5. St. Louis is the better team and will win the game but the BattleHawks won’t cover the massive spread.

Pick: Seattle Dragons +11.5 (-110), Under 38.5 (-115).

Eyes Of Texas Are Upon Them

The first big rivalry game of the XFL season features the team that was expected to be the best in the league, the 2-1 Dallas Renegades, against the team that currently is the best in the league, the 3-0 Houston Roughnecks.

Houston Roughnecks vs Dallas Renegades Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds
Houston Roughnecks -2.5 (-115) -140 Over 50 (-110)
Dallas Renegades +2.5 (-105) +120 Under 50 (-110)

Houston’s pass-and-catch combo of QB PJ Walker and wide receiver Cam Phillips are the league’s most dangerous duo. They’ve connected for seven TDs. Walker leads the XFL in passing yards (748). Phillips leads the XFL in receiving yards (324).

Houston is the XFL’s number one scoring offense (33 ppg). Dallas leads the league in total offense (361.7 ypg). Both the Roughnecks and Renegades allow more than 300 yards per game.

The Roughnecks showed some defensive vulnerability in giving up 27 points at home to Tampa Bay. Play the over and go with the Renegades to pull off the upset at home.

Pick: Dallas Renegades +2.5 (-105), Over 50 (-110).

DC Will Strike Vipers

The bandwagon quickly went into abandon ship mode after the Defenders were throttled in LA. This game actually opened with the 0-3 Vipers as the -1.5 home chalk against the 2-1 Defenders.

The line rapidly moved to Defenders -2.5, displaying that the betting public is still down with DC.

DC Defenders vs Tampa Bay Vipers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds
DC Defenders -2.5 (-120) -135 Over 44 (-110)
Tampa Bay Vipers +2.5 (EVEN) +115 Under 44 (-110)

Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS this season. The Vipers have lost as a road favorite, a home favorite and a road underdog. They’ll complete the set this week and lose as a home underdog.

Pick: DC Defenders -2.5 (-120), Under 44 (-110).

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